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Although the overall gain for July came in slightly below expectations, figures for payroll increases in May and June were revised substantially higher. The Labor Department said the economy added 268,000 jobs in May, up from an initial estimate of 244,000, while the June gain was revised upward to 248,000 from 213,000.
The manufacturing sector has been strong recently and gained another 37,000 jobs in July. “We’re not seeing any impact from trade tensions, as it’s too early,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco. Makers of machinery, fabricated metals and electrical equipment have been among the most aggressive in hiring.
Steel Ceilings in Johnstown, Ohio, hired two hourly workers last month and will hire another two this month if it can find appropriate candidates, said Rick Sandor, the company’s president. That’s not easy these days — shifts run from 5 a.m. to 2 p.m., and temporary workers start at $14 per hour. So as the labor market has tightened, Mr. Sandor has eased up on the requirements for new hires.
In the past, he insisted on a couple of years’ experience in metal fabrication, but now settles for candidates who show mechanical skills, like carpentry or heating and cooling repair. Mr. Sandor is willing to waive the requirement for a high school diploma as well and has even hired applicants with what he terms “minor” prison sentences.
Economy is doing so well places are having hard time finding new workers to do the work! That's a GOOD THING! Means wages rise to lure them away from other companies.
Under Obama the unemployment rate fell with the labor participation rate also falling. So it was crap. Thus for most of Obama's term it did not improve. It finally did improve at the end of his last term due to no policy of his because he was a lame duck. Automatic stabilizes and falling fuel prices corrected it and this includes Trump also benefiting from that momentum . However Trump tax cuts and cutting regulations can now be added extending the recovery.
"Recovery"? I thought the economy was BOOMING.
You guys need to make up your minds. Either the economy was failing under Obama and is still failing under Trump given his weaker track of job creation (plus stagnant wages) or the economy was pretty damned good under Obama and continues to improve under Trump. You can't say 4.8% unemployment is horrible and 3.9% is booming, particularly when job creation has been somewhat pedestrian over the last 18 months.
Not a good number, but oddly it will be celebrated as "awesome".
The 12 month average is 203,000, which is well below the average from past years.
The actual number of job created was 539,000, not 157,000.
The number of Americans working increased from 156,465,000 to 157,004,000.
Those are amazing numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
If being below average, and missing expectations is a good thing, then let us celebrate.
There's nothing below average about creating 539,000 jobs.
Since January 2018, 4,156,000 jobs have been created.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
Tell that to the 92 million Americans who are not working.
There are 94,109,000 people not in the labor force.
You want my 83 year old father to work?
Why?
Why should he be punished?
What did he do wrong?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
ADP is a private company who make their own estimates based on the data they have available. The 157K is the official number.
The "official" number is not fact-based. Seasonally adjusted numbers are 100% arbitrary.
It's an undisputed fact that when there were actual job losses, BLS reported seasonally adjusted job gains, in spite of the fact that jobs were physically lost.
There is no rhyme or reason and no mathematical formula used by BLS to create seasonally adjusted figures.
Case in point, there were 456,000 new jobs created in June and BLS reported a seasonally adjusted number of over 200,000 and yet when even more jobs are created in July -- 539,000 jobs -- BLS reports a lower seasonally adjusted number, not a higher number.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruSan
Making the automatic correlation of a lower unemployment rate equating to more hiring is incorrect. Those giving up on job seeking and/or retiring contribute to lowering the unemployment rate.
The number of people not in the labor force decreased from 94,365,000 to 94,109,000.
Your claim is false.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould
Just checked the NYT front page on this.
Sure enough, 157,000 is the number coming from the Labor Dept.
That's a seasonally adjusted number, which is an arbitrary number not based on facts.
The number of Americans working increased from 156,465,000 to 157,004,000.
You do realize that the number of working Americans increases Y-O-Y, right? I'll let you on a little secret, but America's population has grown every decade since its founding in 1776.
The actual number of job created was 539,000, not 157,000.
I don't know where you got that. The unadjusted number of payroll jobs in June was 150,057,000 while the same for July was 148,901,000, a loss of 1,156,000.
So I am in some sort of group that I need to answer for? I do not use hyperbolic language and you want to whine about it that I don't ? A lot of Trump's support is not from mind numbed group think . I realize this is an alien concept on the regressive left .
Quote:
Either the economy was failing under Obama and is still failing under Trump given his weaker track of job creation (plus stagnant wages) or the economy was pretty damned good under Obama and continues to improve under Trump. You can't say 4.8% unemployment is horrible and 3.9% is booming, particularly when job creation has been somewhat pedestrian over the last 18 months.
Well again if someone who knows nothing about economics would like to babble nonsense, I can't stop them, but its just a post hoc ergo procter hoc , logically fallacious argument.
When Obama got into office he rescued the banks. He gave them bailout Treasuries and the FED bought their junk MBS.
So they shored up their balance sheets and purchased assets from cash starved victims they helped create.
The Obama stimulus was half of what it should have been according to every Keynesian economist. That made the free money to the banks in cash and new credit even more lethal. Of course if you don't bail out the banks, you don't need a stimulus because rent and housing prices would fall into affordability range. So as I predicted, then, we ended up with stagflation exacerbated by low interest rates which caused people to seek returns in farmland and oil which drove up energy and food prices. At least gold absorbed some of this which at least did not add to stagflation.
That was Obama's economy, engineered stagflation that enriched big finance that lasted 4-6 years with a weak flagging recovery thanks to automatic stabilizers and failing energy prices as the oil bubble finally unraveled.
Trump lowered corporate taxes, which applies to small S corporations far more since the big corporations use tax avoidance . He also lowered income taxes.
So Obama gave cash to bankers and Trump gave cash to much more of the actual economy.
So no I give no credit to Obama. I give some credit to Trump but he is still only a mild reformer.
He is using the same methodologies. He was referring to the falling labor participation rate. Now the labor participation flattened out meaning the drop in employment is from finding jobs, not falling out of the labor pool.
No, he was referring to the unemployment rate. The LFPR hit this level over five years ago. Why make stuff up?
Lol no its not. I will believe the ADP over a government entity who has CONSTANTLY gotten it wrong and has to round the REAL number upwards of 30k jobs over the past 2 months at least! That would put it roughly where they "expected" it to be.
Did you realize that the ADP benchmarks their numbers to match the BLS? And yes, ADP revises their numbers as well. In fact, since the BLS number came in much less than the ADP number, you can be sure ADP will revise their July number downward when the August number comes out in a month.
No, he was referring to the unemployment rate. The LFPR hit this level over five years ago. Why make stuff up?
Then why are you making stuff up?
The unemployment rate was largely falling under Obama while the labor participation rate was dropping. They were falling off the roles, not finding work.
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