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The last 4 months of 2018 saw a fairly even trend at a 10 point spread - that is, maybe 52% don't approve, 42% approve.
The first large breakout was the shutdown which was obviously a disaster politically. The spread easily passed 16 points, which is massive. Put another way, that meant 40% more Americans were not approving as compared to those who were!
After the shutdown, things returned to a new normal of about a 11 point spread, but it has been growing again recently and is 12.4 or so today. "Only" 30% more disapprove than approve.
It's impossible to predict these things, but I see some of it as a drip, drip, drip which moves the stats. Even a small move means 100's of thousands of Americans have changed their view. Failure in NK is evident, Cohen and Manafort and things like that seem to dent and his continued refusal to ever be modest and Presidential is probably hurting also. The Emergency Declaration may be nicking him also.
I wouldn't put too much stock into a 1-2 point change on this, just like I didn't put too much stock when he went up a couple points after the Shutdown ended (he dropped a few points during it)
Overall, it has actually been quite amazing how constant his #'s in this regard have been.
For the past year his approval has ranged from 39.3 to 42.9 on 538 and his disapproval from 51.3 to 56.0. With his total net approval being between -8.7 and -16.7. RCP has had his approval ranging from 40.6-44.4 approval and 51.1-55.7 disapproval. With net approval ranging from -7.8 to -14.8
His positives have never been high but despite the non stop onslaught of negative attacks they really haven't ever changed much.Hes pretty much been somewhere in the 40% range since before he was elected up till now.His approval ratings are still higher than Pelosi,Schumer,or McConnells although his negatives are higher too,most people have an opinion on Trump while the others have more people who are neutral.
Depending on who the Democratic nominee is Trump could still win reelection even if his approval rating doesn't improve.It is quite possible that the Dems could nominate someone less popular than Trump in enough key states and you can end up with Trump winning again.
I don't expect the disapprovals to change much. Those who have supported Trump's deranged ramblings and poor decisions thus far are unlikely to change up on him now.
We've seen it on this forum. Regardless of how incoherent he is, how many lies he tells, how bizarre he behaves, ... his supporters defend him.
Trump literally handed highly classified intelligence over to Kislyak and Lavrov in the Oval Office and his supporters didn't blink.
His positives have never been high but despite the non stop onslaught of negative attacks they really haven't ever changed much.Hes pretty much been somewhere in the 40% range since before he was elected up till now.His approval ratings are still higher than Pelosi,Schumer,or McConnells although his negatives are higher too,most people have an opinion on Trump while the others have more people who are neutral.
Depending on who the Democratic nominee is Trump could still win reelection even if his approval rating doesn't improve.It is quite possible that the Dems could nominate someone less popular than Trump in enough key states and you can end up with Trump winning again.
There is probably a lot of enthusiasm in the Democratic base right now with all the high profile candidates they have running for President. But there is also a lot of danger right now. Because the more candidates that enter the race in an already overcrowded field, the more likely they are going to have appeal further and further to the far left because they make up so much of the primary voters.
But appealing to the Far Left may win you the primary but it will cost you the general election.
I already think the Republicans are going to win in 2020 for this reason.
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