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Old 12-02-2019, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,871 posts, read 9,541,930 times
Reputation: 15593

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A trip down memory lane.

Key model predicts big election win for Clinton
Quote:
A model that has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential race since Ronald Reagan in 1980 is forecasting a big victory for Hillary Clinton.

Clinton is expected to get 332 electoral votes, while Trump is predicted to get just 206, according to the Moody's Analytics model, which is based on three economic and three political factors.

Overall, the U.S. is growing and that favors Clinton. Most Americans can feel their pocketbooks getting better. Moody's predicts key swing states -- Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania -- all going blue this year.

But here's what really tips the model heavily toward Clinton: Cheap gas and President Obama's high approval rating.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Houston
26,979 posts, read 15,892,870 times
Reputation: 11259
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckity View Post
Even as of the morning of election day, RCP still had PA, MI & WI as blue.

Hell, it took til 930pm eastern time on election night til Nate Silver's site had Trump winning at 55%.

I don't think Comey had anything to do with it - I think the entire election from beginning to end was misjudged.
yes, they got three states out of fifty wrong. The only real surprise was Pennsylvania.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:25 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,372 posts, read 19,170,654 times
Reputation: 26265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ringo1 View Post
I guess on Monday's when the sun is shining at a 45 degree angle - we believe polls.

On Tuesday's ~ not so much.
95% of pollsters are liberal and the polls are slanted to reflect that...if the polls have the race close, Trump is going to landslide the Dem.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:26 AM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
1,702 posts, read 1,920,032 times
Reputation: 1305
Gee..... Moody's? Are they not one of the fine companies that rated all those CDOs and CMOs as AA rated?
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:28 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
31,340 posts, read 14,270,262 times
Reputation: 27863
I still say it's a coin toss despite Trump doing an overall good job.
Democratic turnout is going to be massive. They have failed at everything they have tried, and the level of hate is off the charts.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:28 AM
 
8,338 posts, read 2,966,443 times
Reputation: 7898
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Let's wait until after the criminal in the White House gets through the whole impeachment process before we predict who is going to be President in 2021.
Let’s not. Trump's got it in the bag. I’d wager 1 year away from CD. Take it? So far no one has. :-(
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:42 AM
 
13,692 posts, read 9,011,664 times
Reputation: 10409
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leona Valley View Post
Let’s not. Trump's got it in the bag. I’d wager 1 year away from CD. Take it? So far no one has. :-(

I'm in. On the day after the November 2020 Presidential election, we, Leona Valley and Legalsea, will post on the sticky thread about the election: one to say "you won and I will not appear on the City Data "Politics and Other Controversies" forum for one calendar year", and the other to graciously accept the other's banishment and proceed to gloat.
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:46 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,334,196 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckity View Post
Because I lie to a pollster?

roflmao
You don't lie to a pollster.
NOBODY get's "polled all the time".
The fact that you made such an obviously untrue claim, might mean you lie to US though.

Ken
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:48 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
20,460 posts, read 26,334,196 times
Reputation: 7627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leona Valley View Post
So you agree with me that Trump will repeat. Rednecks obviously have more common sense.
Apparently not.
Not only do they NOT have "more common sense". They also can't seem to read.

Ken
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Old 12-02-2019, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Hoosierville
17,428 posts, read 14,650,567 times
Reputation: 11632
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
You don't lie to a pollster.
NOBODY get's "polled all the time".
The fact that you made such an obviously untrue claim, might mean you lie to US though.

Ken
lol - yes I do lie to pollsters. Every. Single. Time.

How is that obviously untrue?

I get polled a lot. I also have a landline - and that's probably the main reason.

Believe me, don't believe me. Whatevs.
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