Coronavirus is a virus like 'flu or the common cold is... too much hype

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by suzy_q2010

The 10.0% figure is the percentage of all deaths during that time period that were attributable to pneumonia and influenza, not the case fatality rate for influenza.

I understand...you are somewhat repeating what I said.

Since the CV is only on the uptake all we have to go on is a very short time period of fast spreading. We can only have the rates you seek going backwards long after it is over.

The point is that saying it is 50X worse than, for example, 2017-18 is simply a false statement....considering the time frames we have to work with.

It's better to say we have no idea.

The 1918 DID actually attack the weak and young and was largely incubated by the mobilization of millions of Americans for WWI - all traveled into camps with poor sanitation, etc. etc.

They had absolutely no idea how to fight it - no DNA, no public health deep dives for decades before. Now we have 100 years of it, thanks to them (Rockefeller, Johns Hopkins and crew). That one actually mutated to being LESS DEADLY, which is always a possibility.

Is it terrible for those affected? Of course. But let's use actual facts as opposed to "it's 5,000% worse" (50X).

That's fear mongering, IMHO.

If it ends up being 1% that's still a lot of dead people. We will likely all know multiple people who die from it in that case (assuming it goes everywhere). But the world will go on.

[uggabugga]

Originally Posted by Mikala43

I thought this was very interesting:

Today, about 80% of pharmaceuticals sold in the U.S. are produced in China. This number, while concerning, hides an even greater problem: China is the largest and sometimes only global supplier for the active ingredient of some vital medications. The active ingredients for medicines that treat breast cancer and lung cancer and the antibiotic Vancomycin, which is a last resort antibiotic for some types of antimicrobial resistant infections, are made almost exclusively in China. Additionally, China controls such a large market portion of heparin, a blood thinner used in open-heart surgery, kidney dialysis and blood transfusions that the U.S. government was left with no choice but to continue buying from China even after a contamination scandal in 2007.

https://www.salon.com/2020/02/17/the...icals_partner/

that should disturb the hell out of any thinking person.

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by boxus

Lol, you are off with your numbers.

You took hospitalizations and deaths, not total infections and deaths. If including total infections, the rate using the extreme estimates is a 0.1% mortality rate for the flu in the 2017-2018 season.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

top range;

45 million infections
810 thousand hospitalizations
61 thousand deaths

That is a 0.1% mortality rate.

No where close to your ten percent rate you are claiming.

Please read my posts!

"Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018""

This was MORTALITY on the uptake for 4 weeks in a row.

I did not say the overall mortality rate was that...of course it was not! Just giving an example of how skewered results can be when you measure only the upward slope of an initial spreading.

But, in any case, twice as many people died from flu in that year than from Motor Vehicle deaths...and that's a big deal.

Remember - here in the USA we had a "War on MMDA (X)" when it was discovered that ONE person died while using it......and they didn't die from the drug...they forgot to drink any water.

This is why I don't buy stuff from all the various agencies outside of the CDC and the other fabulous scientific groups that watch what they say. Here the entire US Government was (and probably did) react to one death...for obvious political reasons (can't have people having fun and loving others, etc.).

Let's agree on a single point. We don't know anything much. We have to wait until the thing burns itself out or other major events before we measure it.

That would seem simple - if people don't put stock in twitter and Tom Cotton and friends.

[WaldoKitty]

Originally Posted by craigiri

I understand...you are somewhat repeating what I said. ....

That's fear mongering, IMHO.

If it ends up being 1% that's still a lot of dead people. We will likely all know multiple people who die from it in that case (assuming it goes everywhere). But the world will go on.

This speaks for itself. And if you were on that ship I guarantee you'd be afraid.

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

Let's see.

• Feb 4 - Cruise ship delayed in Japan due to 1 case of virus on Feb 2

• 3700 passengers & crew

• Feb 5 - Testing finds 10 more cases. Ship quarantined. Guests required to say in rooms.

• 400 Americans on ship

• Feb 9 - 66 confirmed cases

• Feb 11 - 39 additional cases

• Feb 17 - 454 total confirmed cases.

• Feb 16 - Planes arrive to evacuate Americans.

• Feb 16 - 44 Americans denied evacuation because they are infected.

• Feb 17 - 16 new cases found on the 2 planes AFTER being tested in Japan. (imagine being on those planes having flown 13 hours from Japan)

This is no ordinary flu as put forth by the OP and the MSM. This is an infection rate of 13.5% in less than 3 weeks.


These facts speak for themselves.

[LKJ1988]

If it gets out of control over here it is over rover. The economy will tank and people will go crazy when all things come to a stop. This is how the planet takes care of itself over millions of years. Too many people on this planet as it is and a good 8 billion less people would help the planet out. Have plenty of food and bullets.

[ocpaul20]

I don't have time to do your homework if you don't want to accept my experience of 45 yrs working in the field.

As you know, forums are supposed to be anonymous so how do I know what your past experience is?

CV, OTOH, is killing "healthy" people- EG- the doc who first described it.

This is not acknowledging that the doctor was highly stressed, may have not been looking after himself and may have a severely weakened immune system. Just another victim of, as-you-say-earlier, a virus which kills weak individuals. I very much doubt whether anyone would call the doc a healthy individual.

Originally Posted by gungnir

A typical flu season hits 8% of the population. COVID-19 is claimed to have higher transmissibilty than flu, 8% of China's population is 104,000,000. So just for flu you'd expect 2 months into a flu season for there to be several million infected.

It is probably true that any country is not going to want to report the correct figures, but as a very rough estimate perhaps we should double what is reported.

Another point to consider is that whilst British Airways have stopped all flights from China a few weeks ago, Air China are still flying at least 2 aircraft per day from Beijing into the UK with possibly 100-200 people on each flight. This number of new, potentially infected people should spread the disease around the world very quickly, but it appears not to be. That is just from one airport, to one airport, so what effect would we expect to see when we multiply this up? But..again, we dont see that in the numbers.

I am certainly not a math guru and so I assumed the number of dead divided by the total was the percentage lethality but it seems that is too simple for a proper statistic. Please do NOT take my math as correct.
Mikala43 probably has far more knowledge about this math than I do and as others have said, we need to wait and see what the numbers tell us, although statistics can be made to say anything.

One other thing we need to bear in mind - China was in the middle of Chinese New Year(CNY) and MILLIONS of people leave their city and go home to the country at that time. This year, they have been told to stay home for a few extra days to try to avoid infection etc. I think it was 10th Feb they were supposed to return to work. People probably started to leave for their "home town" a couple of days before CNY which was 24/25th January. All this means that Wuhan probably did not have the estimated 11 million population around that time, but certainly people would have flocked to the train stations and airports to go home. At each CNY, there is a MASSIVE movement of population through the transport network which of course, brings its own problems in an epidemic situation.

I do wonder why countries are reacting so much, so maybe and I think it is a wake-up call for people and countries to examine their systems to deal with this kind of epidemic. At some time in the future, there will be an epidemic which will be started by an organisation - it might be a CIA-type organisation or in might be a terrorist organisation, but whatever, we have to prepare for this eventuality. This is not scare mongering, but proper preparation and we need drills to help us deal with it when it comes. This is what FEMA does, right?

On another conversation tack, over the last few years, people have been reporting US fenced camps which have been set up miles from anywhere. There have been photos of thousands of plastic coffins piled up and I just wonder if this is in preparation for just such an epidemic. Also, there have been reports of cities built in China where no-one lives maybe this is preparation too.

The Georgia Guide Stones suggest a world population of 500 million would be a sustainable number...

[legalsea]

Just for the heck of it, I search, page by page, this forum beginning in December 2019, to find the first thread or threads about this virus.



This thread was started February 17th. There were a few prior to it (I think February 3rd was the first), but each was locked. This is the first thread I could find that was unlocked, hence I could respond to.



Looking at it, it is an interesting discussion, not least because of several of the participants. Waldokitty, for example, a known supporter of Mr. Trump, contributed several times warning all that this virus 'is not your normal flu' and that it poses a definite danger. Since Mr. Kitty last posted March 11th (about Joe Biden), I suppose that his earlier position became untenable given his support of Mr. Trump.



Nevertheless, it is instructive: posters were robustly discussing the seriousness of this novel coronavirus on February 17th (and, as I said, earlier). Indeed, it was on February 22nd that I finally decided to go to Sam's Club and begin stocking up (at that time, Clorox Wipes, bathroom tissue and paper towels, not to mention hand sanitizer) were freely available. Three days later, I warned my sisters.



Compare this thread's discussion with President Trump's response in February. These posters were taking this disease much more seriously than he was.



True, one or two posters that argued the disease was nothing significant subsequently became 'non members', but I salute those, including Waldokitty, that warned us early on.



I read what they (and others, of course) said, and took action.