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They seem to think it'll decline but then rebound in the second half of 2020....I'd believe that.
The growth trajectory we were on wasn't sustainable, this is just the market pumping its own breaks.
They seem to think it'll decline but then rebound in the second half of 2020....I'd believe that.
The growth trajectory we were on wasn't sustainable, this is just the market pumping its own breaks.
That presumes there will be a letup in the infection rate. Consumers are pulling back even with the relatively low number of cases thus far. We are a service and consumer economy unlike China. Once the consumer goes, the economy follows and it will take getting the virus down to background noise like the flu and then a couple quarters to get it back.
Not only that, but Americans have no stomach for hardship. They won't make the personal sacrifices needed to control this. But that's another story.
"David Kostin, Goldman’s top U.S. equity strategist, wrote that the historic fall in interest rates is unlikely to prevent a “collapse” in second- and third-quarter profits."
"now sees the market down another 15% on top of its 14% loss incurred over the last month.
"Kostin did say, however, that he expects a rebound in the back half of 2020 to boost the S&P 500 to 3,200 by year’s end, 11% higher from current levels."
So Goldman's U.S. equity strategist is expecting things to drop double what it has over last month, but that it may increase 11% by the end of the year.
So despite the disruption in supply chains and the contraction in travel and the oil troubles, etc. that is bringing an end to the Bear market, Kostin is expecting things to pick up some by the end of the year. Not sure what this expectation of things being on the upswing by the end of the year is based on.
It’s like we are on a ship being thrown about in a violent storm. But the captain remains steadfast at the wheel, his golden hair battered by wind, salt and sea. The storm is a perilous one. But the passengers sleep soundly in good hands knowing the captain will steer them through to calmer waters, eventually.
Yeah but I don't think Trump is at all a worthy captain. The guy can't even stick to a plan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
You really thing eliminating payroll tax is a solution? How would we pay the retirees SS and Medicare? It seems obvious the whole idea is to buy a re-election in November, and nothing else.
Seriously....
I didn't say it was the solution, just A solution. The problem is neither party is helping with the President's main idea for a plan. McConnell is turtle shelling when asked to make a comment, and Pelosi is against it. I criticized Trump because it don't go far enough. A LOT of people could be out of work and have no way to even be on the DOL during this if it gets to Italy levels and schools shut down. A tax holiday wouldn't help them nor would expanded paid leave technically as it a non-work day. As someone on the cruise ship said "bills don't stop."
Quote:
Originally Posted by TEPLimey
The market does not appear to have the same confidence in Captain Queeg that you do.
Neither do I.
Quote:
Originally Posted by middle-aged mom
Are you not old enough to shake the celebrity worship thing?
Realized last night Dr Andrew Fauci will turn the big 8-0, this year. In contrast both Trump and Biden tend to come off a tad cognitively challenged at times.
Trump and Biden both suffer from memory issues. Fauci is dealing with this a little bit better than AIDS. Perhaps he learned...
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeyJude514
I see it the exact opposite. People are worried. They see this thing spreading across the globe and they observe our government doing little by way of reassuring them. Instead we get the president making ridiculous claims, such as the virus will be down to zero soon in the precise moment the number of cases is growing exponentially. People are able to see that what Trump says is contrary to what is actually happening. As a result, they grow even more worried.
During a crisis people need a leader they have confidence in, one that assures us we are in good hands. This president does the opposite. Instead, he's all over Twitter calling this a Democratic hoax to hurt him. People are scared, people are getting sick and dying, and the only thing Trump is worried about is his reelection.
No one who isn't brainwashed feels safe in this president's hands. No one.
People are worried enough at the Dow is back 1,578. Several hundred points below it's close on Monday. The storm is still going.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
And back down AGAIN.
The fact is, the volatility is FAR from over. The stock market is likely to gyrate wildly for a while yet. This MIGHT be the bottom or it might not and Trump's tax cut isn't likely to help much (if at all) because the ISSUE is NOT monetary policy, the issue is the world economy is imploding because of fears of the virus - and until the virus runs it's course, or is forced under control (something unlikely to happen) things are not going to be very stable for the stock market, no matter what the idiot in the White House does or says. The ONLY hope for Trump is that the virus peters out with coming warmer weather (as the flu typically does). If that doesn't happen (and I DO think there is a decent chance of that) then it's going to be pretty bad for the US economy and Trump.
Ken
Yep. Trump is in for a harsh time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa
There's another 4000 points minimum that will come off this market as the virus spreads and consumers pull back. It was overbought badly to begin with. The correction we have seen so far was inevitable virus or not.
Easily.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJJersey
Pure nonsense. There is zero evidence that the market was headed anywhere but the stratosphere until this virus hit.
Spoken like a true Trump supporter. The fact is the global economy is not that good in light of this global pandemic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
Another 4000 would mean a 30% correction from a few weeks ago, which is pretty much a "melt-down" rather than correction. 10% corrections are often inevitable, but 30% is a vary bad one. It would put us back to where we were 3 years ago, and Trump can boast with zero growth over 3 years.
With everything in the market, it could.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould
Despite Trump's chest beating about the economy, signs have been on the horizon for at least a year. Inverted yield curve started about this time last spring. Manufacturing slowing down. GDP growth sluggish. ...
The tariff war with China wasn't helping matters any, then the coronavirus and now the Russia/Saudi oil standoff.
"David Kostin, Goldman’s top U.S. equity strategist, wrote that the historic fall in interest rates is unlikely to prevent a “collapse” in second- and third-quarter profits."
"now sees the market down another 15% on top of its 14% loss incurred over the last month.
"Kostin did say, however, that he expects a rebound in the back half of 2020 to boost the S&P 500 to 3,200 by year’s end, 11% higher from current levels."
So Goldman's U.S. equity strategist is expecting things to drop double what it has over last month, but that it may increase 11% by the end of the year.
So despite the disruption in supply chains and the contraction in travel and the oil troubles, etc. that is bringing an end to the Bear market, Kostin is expecting things to pick up some by the end of the year. Not sure what this expectation of things being on the upswing by the end of the year is based on.
IMHO this isn't that likely because people's jobs are in a standstill. Fewer air travel means fewer people needed for flight crews per day. Fewer people working means more people not being as big of economic players. As I said before, classified school staff are being told they could be not paid for a "vacation" during this time. I am one of these workers and I would have to worry about paying my monthly bills.
OK, final DOW for the day is 23,553.22, a drop of 1,464.94 or 5.86%.
We are now back to where the DOW was around the end of October 2017 (and in an official Bear Market) - roughly 2 1/2 years worth of gains wiped out. At this stage (a snapshot obviously) Trump's DOW improvement (from when he took office) is just a bit under 19% over 3 years or so - or around 6%/year.
NOT very impressive.
MAGA??????
OK, final DOW for the day is 23,553.22, a drop of 1,464.94 or 5.86%.
We are now back to where the DOW was around the end of October 2017 (and in an official Bear Market) - roughly 2 1/2 years worth of gains wiped out. At this stage (a snapshot obviously) Trump's DOW improvement (from when he took office) is just a bit under 19% over 3 years or so - or around 6%/year.
NOT very impressive.
MAGA??????
Ken
For those of us who don't support Trump, and don't assign credit/blame for markets to a specific POTUS, America is great, the market is functioning exactly how it should, and its going through the same types of long term cycles it always does. Washing out weak hands who will see losses because they didn't stick through the hard times, or put some additional cash to work now or soon to take advantage of the downturn.
None of this stuff is all that hard to understand, nor is it surprising or frankly all that unexpected. Big bull runs always come to an end, nobody ever knows how or sees it coming, but here we are.
I'll continue to invest mostly the same way regardless of if we keep the current dope of a POTUS or if we get the new dope of a POTUS.
For those of us who don't support Trump, and don't assign credit/blame for markets to a specific POTUS, America is great, the market is functioning exactly how it should, and its going through the same types of long term cycles it always does. Washing out weak hands who will see losses because they didn't stick through the hard times, or put some additional cash to work now or soon to take advantage of the downturn.
None of this stuff is all that hard to understand, nor is it surprising or frankly all that unexpected. Big bull runs always come to an end, nobody ever knows how or sees it coming, but here we are.
I'll continue to invest mostly the same way regardless of if we keep the current dope of a POTUS or if we get the new dope of a POTUS.
I'm sorry but most right-wing posters on here have pegged all the economic boom to Trump whether he did nothing or something. You can't simply dismiss the effect of a President on the stock market or claim it is a feature not a big when things go south. That is what exactly is happening by you and other right-wing posters. I'm telling you to stick it because when the market rises, y'all will go back to praising Trump.
I'm sorry but most right-wing posters on here have plunged all the economic boom to Trump whether he did nothing or something. You can't simply dismiss the effect of a President on the stock market or claim it is a feature not a big when things go south. That is what exactly is happening by you and other right-wing posters. I'm telling you to stick it because when the market rises, y'all will go back to praising Trump.
You must have me confused with someone else, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Find a post where I praised Trump for the market. In fact I've got blisters on my fingers from constantly telling dopes on here that the POTUS (regardless of what team) has WAY less impact on the market than is claimed by most.
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