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Old 04-05-2020, 11:42 AM
 
78,421 posts, read 60,613,724 times
Reputation: 49725

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
I suffer from being right virtually all the time...doesn't win friends are influence anyone. Best to keep it on the low down.
To be blunt, unless you're having discussions with people that have the education, experience and intellect to challenge your points you'll generally find yourself in the position where they can't open you to new ways of looking at things.

This has been a trap historically for some of the best minds in history, after all, even Einstein got some things fantastically wrong.
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:46 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,678,698 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Of course I'm wrong some of the time. Just ask my wife.

Here is the study. It's called the Dunning-Kruger Effect: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...trumps-support
It's a fascinating thing...and we see it on display now much more due to the internet. It is also called by some other names...like "a little knowledge is worst than none at all" and "everything is easy for those who never have to do it".

There are some great podcasts on it with the man himself - worth listening to or reading the transcripts....Act Two of This American Life, for one

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/585/transcript

"Sean Cole
There's this story about ignorance that David Dunning really loves. He's a psychology professor, and he's even cited it in his research. It's about a guy named McArthur Wheeler, who in 1995 robbed a couple of banks in Pennsylvania and didn't wear a mask.

David Dunning
And he was arrested. And the police basically said, "well, we have you on the surveillance tapes." And he said, "no, you don't." And they showed him the tapes. And he saw his face. And he stared incredulously and said, "but I wore the juice. I wore the juice."

Sean Cole
The juice?

David Dunning
Yes. Apparently, McArthur Wheeler was under the impression that smearing your face with lemon juice made it fuzzy or invisible to video cameras. To his credit, he had actually tested this theory. He took a selfie, but I think he misaimed the camera.

Sean Cole
The thing about McArthur Wheeler wasn't just that he was an idiot. It was that he thought he was doing everything right, which made David Dunning think--

David Dunning
When people are wrong or when they're performing poorly or, for lack of a better word, when they're incompetent, do they know they're incompetent?

Sean Cole
And he had a guess, which was no. They do not know they're incompetent.

David Dunning
And so we decided to do some experiments and find out."

-----------------

And the truth is, no matter how much we'd like to think otherwise, that he was 100% correct.

There are always exceptions to the rule. There are many other mental defects and situations which can cause people to be wrong....including brainwashing and the like.
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:49 AM
 
Location: Texas
37,949 posts, read 17,870,209 times
Reputation: 10371
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
Of course I'm wrong some of the time. Just ask my wife. This thread is about that Uncle who comes to Thanksgiving dinner and launches into a diatribe about the Democrats and how they will be the demise of America. It's about that couple down the street who barely finished high school but swear that they know everything there is to know about why Trump will make America great again, but will start an argument if you ask them how is going to do it. It's also about that social justice warrior who is convinced that the ocean will soon find its way up the Mississippi valley.

Have you ever wondered about these people who are as dumb as a bag of hammers but will virtually assault you if you try to reason with them. Well there's been a study of this personality type and they are on both sides of the political spectrum.

Here is the study. It's called the Dunning-Kruger Effect: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/b...trumps-support
Some bs report about Trump supporters which has nothing to do with policy? lol

I never understood why people believe in progressivism when big government is a known failure and conservative policies work.
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Berwick, Penna.
16,216 posts, read 11,338,692 times
Reputation: 20828
Quote:
Originally Posted by blahzay23 View Post
This is the exact thinking that's dominant among Conservatives. Your first rule is to not blindly accept something, so what's your method to verify the facts that you're challenging? What's your background to know what other sources are accepted? Or to say that something they used in their findings was incorrect.

I can almost guarantee you have nothing in your background that puts you in the position to challenge expert findings, yet you feel like it's something you're capable of.
One of the most effective measures is the workings of a free and open economy -- which tends to reward foresight and punish stupidity.

Next question:
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:53 AM
 
Location: Texas
37,949 posts, read 17,870,209 times
Reputation: 10371
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
It's a fascinating thing...and we see it on display now much more due to the internet. It is also called by some other names...like "a little knowledge is worst than none at all" and "everything is easy for those who never have to do it".

There are some great podcasts on it with the man himself - worth listening to or reading the transcripts....Act Two of This American Life, for one

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/585/transcript

"Sean Cole
There's this story about ignorance that David Dunning really loves. He's a psychology professor, and he's even cited it in his research. It's about a guy named McArthur Wheeler, who in 1995 robbed a couple of banks in Pennsylvania and didn't wear a mask.

David Dunning
And he was arrested. And the police basically said, "well, we have you on the surveillance tapes." And he said, "no, you don't." And they showed him the tapes. And he saw his face. And he stared incredulously and said, "but I wore the juice. I wore the juice."

Sean Cole
The juice?

David Dunning
Yes. Apparently, McArthur Wheeler was under the impression that smearing your face with lemon juice made it fuzzy or invisible to video cameras. To his credit, he had actually tested this theory. He took a selfie, but I think he misaimed the camera.

Sean Cole
The thing about McArthur Wheeler wasn't just that he was an idiot. It was that he thought he was doing everything right, which made David Dunning think--

David Dunning
When people are wrong or when they're performing poorly or, for lack of a better word, when they're incompetent, do they know they're incompetent?

Sean Cole
And he had a guess, which was no. They do not know they're incompetent.

David Dunning
And so we decided to do some experiments and find out."

-----------------

And the truth is, no matter how much we'd like to think otherwise, that he was 100% correct.

There are always exceptions to the rule. There are many other mental defects and situations which can cause people to be wrong....including brainwashing and the like.[
LOL Like how the left brainwashes their people to falsely play the race card and avoid discussing policy? It's always about policy and big government policies are a known failure. Which is why you wont discuss policy. Doesn't that make you exactly what you are complaining about in your post?
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:55 AM
 
Location: North Carolina
6,116 posts, read 4,609,858 times
Reputation: 10578
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifeexplorer View Post
It’s only divisive if you think he’s wrong!

Name one democrats’s policy that is NOT you forcing other people to do what you want.

I can only think two: legalization of drugs and illegal immigration.
If you read the context of my post, someone aggressively pushing their political viewpoint, regardless of what that might be, in a dogmatic and obnoxious way, at a family Thanksgiving gathering, is what is divisive. Not knowing when it's socially inappropriate to try and pick a political fight with someone is being divisive. And, going back to the OP, that's the uncle who gets on people's nerves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FatBob96 View Post
Conservatives never "became" anti, education, anti intellectual or anti-science.

We just don't always buy into YOUR definitions of education, intellect or science.

The Left seems to think that "educators" ""intellectuals" and scientist are somehow immune from bias and never let their political ideology influence them or their opinions.

Conservatives know that's a steaming pile of BS.
There's considerable research (and I'm even including "Reason", which is slanted to right wing politics) that would suggest otherwise:

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...e-preparation/

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essa...her-education/

https://reason.com/2019/08/19/pew-su...s-safe-spaces/

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...-anti-science/

That's not to say Conservatives can't have high levels of education or knowledge about science or intellectual pursuits. Trump has a degree from the UPA Wharton School of Business and other well known Republicans, such as past Presidential candidate and Senator Ted Cruz (Princeton University), and others. And that's not say intelligence requires a formal degree at all. The difference is Republicans currently, and in recent history, seem more dismissive of accomplished experts in their fields, and are more distrustful of higher education in general, and pass on that mistrust to their bases. The Left isn't immune to manipulating their bases either, but they don't seem to have as loud or as unified of a voice in doing so.

Last edited by Jowel; 04-05-2020 at 12:31 PM..
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:55 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,678,698 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
To be blunt, unless you're having discussions with people that have the education, experience and intellect to challenge your points you'll generally find yourself in the position where they can't open you to new ways of looking at things.

This has been a trap historically for some of the best minds in history, after all, even Einstein got some things fantastically wrong.
I, and you can check with my smart wife - friends - family and even my parents....and my kids and employees - do end up being right most of the time. This is partially due to the fact that I actually consider things. It is also due to many other factors, some of which are birthright and some of which are training....others happenstance.

In real life I do not use this skill to convince others of things. I use it to teach sometimes and I use it to have maximum efficiency and better outcomes in places that decisions matter. I rarely negotiate anything and my business and relationships goals are always the same - win/win.

BUT, I once had the chance to put these skills to work on a fella. I was visiting my parents back in the GWB days and they introduced me to a younger successful guy who was from Montreal. He was about 35, had a family and was fairly strict Jewish.

We were hanging out at the pool and talking when he said something about GWB being great. 30 Minutes later he agreed with me (about GWB being a fool).

I sorta enjoyed that but it's too much work for the small reward. To quote Upton Sinclair:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

So in addition to gross ignorance, which this fella didn't have, there is the money/security/peer part of it. I remember hanging out in Hilton Head in the development where many multi-millionaires lived (CEO of Gulfstream Jets, for one). After a tennis social one of the gals and I started talking and she 100% assumed that I was of like mind. After all, isn't everyone? In this case, "like mine" would be money and staying away from the riff-raff and real estate schemes and all the like were what I might be most interested in.

She had no idea my life was formed on a Hippie Commune.
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Old 04-05-2020, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Texas
37,949 posts, read 17,870,209 times
Reputation: 10371
Quote:
Originally Posted by blahzay23 View Post
This is the exact thinking that's dominant among Conservatives. Your first rule is to not blindly accept something, so what's your method to verify the facts that you're challenging? What's your background to know what other sources are accepted? Or to say that something they used in their findings was incorrect.

I can almost guarantee you have nothing in your background that puts you in the position to challenge expert findings, yet you feel like it's something you're capable of.
Because someone has a pedigree means exactly what? Which "expert" do we listen too? Someone on tv who you dont know says someone else on tv who dont know is who we should listen to? Why?

Listen to the ones who have been right about the economy and foreign affairs. That would be the conservatives. Small government works, big government is a known failure.
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Old 04-05-2020, 12:01 PM
 
Location: minnesota
15,862 posts, read 6,328,434 times
Reputation: 5059
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loveshiscountry View Post
Because someone has a pedigree means exactly what? Which "expert" do we listen too? Someone on tv who you dont know says someone else on tv who dont know is who we should listen to? Why?

Listen to the ones who have been right about the economy and foreign affairs. That would be the conservatives. Small government works, big government is a known failure.
What I do is I try and find a debate between two educated people with different viewpoints and watch that. I'll never really know but it helps me to understand a little at least.
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Old 04-05-2020, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Texas
37,949 posts, read 17,870,209 times
Reputation: 10371
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
I, and you can check with my smart wife - friends - family and even my parents....and my kids and employees - do end up being right most of the time. This is partially due to the fact that I actually consider things. It is also due to many other factors, some of which are birthright and some of which are training....others happenstance.

In real life I do not use this skill to convince others of things. I use it to teach sometimes and I use it to have maximum efficiency and better outcomes in places that decisions matter. I rarely negotiate anything and my business and relationships goals are always the same - win/win.

BUT, I once had the chance to put these skills to work on a fella. I was visiting my parents back in the GWB days and they introduced me to a younger successful guy who was from Montreal. He was about 35, had a family and was fairly strict Jewish.

We were hanging out at the pool and talking when he said something about GWB being great. 30 Minutes later he agreed with me (about GWB being a fool).

I sorta enjoyed that but it's too much work for the small reward. To quote Upton Sinclair:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

So in addition to gross ignorance, which this fella didn't have, there is the money/security/peer part of it. I remember hanging out in Hilton Head in the development where many multi-millionaires lived (CEO of Gulfstream Jets, for one). After a tennis social one of the gals and I started talking and she 100% assumed that I was of like mind. After all, isn't everyone? In this case, "like mine" would be money and staying away from the riff-raff and real estate schemes and all the like were what I might be most interested in.

She had no idea my life was formed on a Hippie Commune.
Then you most not "consider" policy much since you aren't right about policy very much. Which is why you never discuss policy.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when he refuses to discuss the actual issue.”
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