Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbenson
Marketwatch
The surge in coronavirus cases in some states isn’t part of a ‘second wave’
Published: June 15, 2020 at 3:15 p.m. ET
Many of the predictions for a second wave have anticipated that it would hit in the fall, if it does occur, either due to a change in the season or people spending more time indoors, where the virus is thought to be more easily transmitted
"uptick" sounds cuter than "wave" hope stays that way and then goes away
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"Uptick" is correct.
A wave occurs when it sweeps back through a previously hit area.
Contrary to what you might believe, COVID-19 is not in the "ether" and it isn't being dropped in canisters from Russian Bear bombers.
The Plains States and the Southwest have extremely low population densities and limited contact with international travelers, so they were not immediately "hit" with COVID-19, but now Americans traveling to those States are spreading it there.
It will continue to spread all Summer long all over the US.
Excluding the four strains of corona virus that cause the common cold, all corona virus cause Influenza-like symptoms, which is why they are classified as Influenza-like Illnesses (ILI in the medical literature) and like all ILIs caused by corona, influenza, parainfluenza, adenovirus and respiratory synctical virus (RSV), they do not fare well outside a human host during Summer.
That reduces/limits the spread, but does not eliminate it.
That's why Flu Season is October-March in the Northern Hemisphere and April to September in the Southern Hemisphere.
Flu Season is not just "flu" it's corona virus, influenza, parainfluenza, adenovirus and RSV.
Less than 1% of Americans have been infected, although the reality is it's probably 3% because people who had it in December, January and February didn't know they had, but probably realize that now.
You need 90% of your population to be infected to get "herd immunity" assuming "herd immunity" is a real thing and you ain't even close to that.
It might be 5-10 years before 50% of your population has it.
So, when Flu Season starts, you are going to see a second wave.