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Why the need to go to such an extreme case to make your point? There are plenty of other countries that have done a much better job controlling spread that aren't autocracies. Look at Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Singapore for examples. Yes, this represents more government control that many Americans wish to accept, but the North Korea analogy is ridiculous.
Hmm. This says only that countries that are islands have found it remarkably easier to control cases than countries that are not islands.
The reason why some of the Asian countries didn't need to lockdown was because they managed to control the spread early and keep it low, with sufficient testing/tracing/isolation. Had we acted early one year ago with a government that was fully transparent and actually did something to control the spread (and not fan the flames), we could've been in the same boat. Honestly, I would've rather have had this as well, as it would've made all of our lives easier. But, we all know what happened and why we weren't going in that direction. Lockdowns should be used as a last resort, but that's where we were finding ourselves (and still are to some extent).
I never said I condoned China's hiding of the true numbers. I too have suspicions about what the actual numbers there were, the origins of the virus and the lack of transparency. Notice that I never once used them as the shining example of what we should be doing. The only thing I think we could learn from (to some extent) were the type of lockdowns needed to control spread, once it is out of control. But again, I feel like people use China as a deflection to justify us continuing the status quo vs doing more, when this is a false equivalency.
Places like Korea and Japan have done better than us by testing/tracing/isolation. I don't think what they've done is perfect (by any stretch), but can see this as superior to what we're doing here. But, given that this is not something our government has been able/willing to coordinate at a national level, we can't look at these examples for best practices either.
Korea has good tracing but as far I understand of Japan they did almost nothing during the beginning.
They were reluctant to close their border under the pressure from the IOC to keep the games going before finally relenting in April. Japan just done things by a voluntarily requesting people, but they did not penalize stores or businesses or people who kept working or living their lives though. Even barbers, stylists, Karokes, even Pechantos(semi casinos), stayed open. So did parks and beaches though the parking lots and certain paths that get crowded were blocked. I keep track of NHK and Japan today since all of last year.
I believe you would be happy to live in China though the food is nice, infrastructure is world class and modern. Apparently much of the west and countries outside Asia is a fail at responding. UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Italy, other EU, or that Asians already had some form of herd immunity.
The death rate between the two states is what the OP brought up, though. And tracking any of this back to what specifically was open or closed during what time is next to impossible. Contact tracing, while a noble effort, has unfortunately not worked for a variety of reasons.
In regard to cases, California total confirmed virus cases per 100 K: 8955; Florida's confirmed cases per 100 K: 9047. California cases per 100 K in the past 14 days: 302, Florida: 448.
I know. I was just piggybacking on your comment. Sorry for the confusion.
On the surface, those numbers all look similar between the two states. As someone else said, maybe years from now when enough bean counters examine the data in greater detail, the vexing question of whether or not lockdowns worked or not can be answered. Right now there's bigger fish to fry.
It's unlikely California will ease up on restrictions until case numbers start to dramatically trend towards yellow tier in all 58 counties. JMO.
I know. I was just piggybacking on your comment. Sorry for the confusion.
On the surface, those numbers all look similar between the two states. As someone else said, maybe years from now when enough bean counters examine the data in greater detail, the vexing question of whether or not lockdowns worked or not can be answered. Right now there's bigger fish to fry.
It's unlikely California will ease up on restrictions until case numbers start to dramatically trend towards yellow tier in all 58 counties. JMO.
There has been some easing up, in the form of shifting numbers to make things allowable that weren't allowable under the tier system. For instance, reopening outdoor dining early, if I recall correctly, because "by a certain date, we project that the ICU numbers will be an acceptable level."
Or, and this applies to me because I have high school children, allowing certain sports to resume that are only allowed in the orange tier, but stating that a case rate of 14 per 100,000 is acceptable for these sports instead of the official 7 per 100,000 of the orange tier.
Can you post the side-by-side numbers, please? Thank you.
That's not relevant. The point is that the lockdowns were supposed to prevent California from having a huge spike in November and December, or ever. Our line was supposed to stay relatively flat.
There has been some easing up, in the form of shifting numbers to make things allowable that weren't allowable under the tier system. For instance, reopening outdoor dining early, if I recall correctly, because "by a certain date, we project that the ICU numbers will be an acceptable level."
Or, and this applies to me because I have high school children, allowing certain sports to resume that are only allowed in the orange tier, but stating that a case rate of 14 per 100,000 is acceptable for these sports instead of the official 7 per 100,000 of the orange tier.
True, and good point. They have made some allowances but I mean the more general protocols like masks, and limits on gatherings, etc. I have a feeling those will be with us for awhile, especially since the vaccines don't even confer true immunity.
But things like your sports example show (to me, anyway) that the state is just shifting the goalposts for what the color tiers mean. Much like that 14/100k number for sports, the 25/100k number for school re-openings just magically appeared one day. So in a blink of the eye we went from 7/100k standard purple tier being an extreme situation for businesses, to four times that amount being ok to put kids back in school. Nobody should continue to believe that any of this is based on science. It's not.
Everyone knows that Florida underreports its death totals, and people should know by now that California has many more cases of severe variants of COVID-19 than Florida does.
I think this just shows that half baked lockdowns aren't working. We can't rely on people to use good judgment and do the right thing, if these are just guidelines. If we really wanted to reduce the spread, we would've had to have had true lockdowns, where all businesses (except select essential services) are shut down, people cannot go further than a small distance from their homes and those who are caught outside without masks are arrested.
Of course, many folks are going to call this un-American and an infringement on their personal liberties, so I guess we reap the seeds we sew.
Those lockdowns would have to be enforced in the ghettos too. What happens when a gang attacks the police for trying to enforce those orders in a rough neighborhood and has to shoot them in self defense and mass riots break out in many major cities? Anyone who thinks we can do what Singapore did is delusional. Singapore is ethnically diverse but no ghetto culture whatsoever.
Florida's had full indoor dining capacity since Sept and in person learning since Aug. In spite of its elderly population, its death rate is the same as California's. So what was the purpose of the lockdowns?
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