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Trump lost the popular vote twice, the senate, house and the presidency. By all means run him again if you like. He has proven that losing is something he does well.
The popular vote in each state determines that state's electoral vote. The total popular vote may be noteworthy, but it determines nothing.
There has been a trend towards tighter election laws since the 2020 election. The results of that election were, to put it mildly, suspect.
The popular vote in each state determines that state's electoral vote. The total popular vote may be noteworthy, but it determines nothing.
There has been a trend towards tighter election laws since the 2020 election. The results of that election were, to put it mildly, suspect.
The significance of losing the popular vote- by 2.5+ million then 5 million- is that it winning the Presidency with an electoral vote loss of anything at 2 pts or above is difficult at best. In 2016, Trump only won his last three states with 110k combined in Pa, Wi, and Mi. That was against a really badly managed Dem campaign with a damaged and unpopular candidate. Lack of campaigning alone probably lost Michigan. In 2020 Biden's last three states were a 40K + but that was with Michigan and Pa banked by 3 and 1.2 points and Minnesota and NM moving from 1 pt states to solid 7 point wins. The states that are going to decide the elections are becoming more dominated by large metros and those metros (core and surburbs) are moving more Dem. So Trump might peel back Wisconsin and hold his 3 point win in Fl (which was big) but Ga, Az, NC, Mi, and Texas are all moving the other direction as their largest cities account for the majority of growth. Pa will likely follow that trend as the rural areas hollow out more in comparison to the urban ones. The key to the Presidency for either party is now the suburbs and that is where Trump was rejected.
The significance of losing the popular vote- by 2.5+ million then 5 million- is that it winning the Presidency with an electoral vote loss of anything at 2 pts or above is difficult at best. In 2016, Trump only won his last three states with 110k combined in Pa, Wi, and Mi. That was against a really badly managed Dem campaign with a damaged and unpopular candidate. Lack of campaigning alone probably lost Michigan. In 2020 Biden's last three states were a 40K + but that was with Michigan and Pa banked by 3 and 1.2 points and Minnesota and NM moving from 1 pt states to solid 7 point wins. The states that are going to decide the elections are becoming more dominated by large metros and those metros (core and surburbs) are moving more Dem. So Trump might peel back Wisconsin and hold his 3 point win in Fl (which was big) but Ga, Az, NC, Mi, and Texas are all moving the other direction as their largest cities account for the majority of growth. Pa will likely follow that trend as the rural areas hollow out more in comparison to the urban ones. The key to the Presidency for either party is now the suburbs and that is where Trump was rejected.
Spot on .
There is an historical correlation between the national popular vote and the Electoral College. They have been in sync for 90% of the Presidential Elections for the past 200 years. What we have now is a case where the demographics suggests, barring a sudden and massive change in voting preferences, that the pro-Democratic gap in the national popular vote will continue to grow and the Republicans have to bet that they beat the 200 year average and start winning a lot more often than 10% of the time.
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