COVID-19 variant (Delta Virus Variant) (Israeli, health care, how much, compare)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
...
Delta Variant (actually, two or three underlying mutations, that I have been tracking) changes a few of the rules (more on what "the rules" are, on request). It doesn't change all of them. I have formulated most of these new rules, and hope to expound on the topic later today.
The following is an educated theory of how our new enemy, Covid-19 is mutating, as it continues to attack us. It is pretty long and involved, let me know if anyone has questions.
A new mutation, primarily responsible for the damage the Delta Variant is causing is L452R. This, to me, appears to be an evolution of the E484K mutation. The viruses with L452R mutation are Delta and Kappa, and the major difference between these two seems to be which test finds them.
The success of a virus in an environment that is hostile to it, is primarily dependent on how easily it transmits, not how fast it replicates or how resistant it is to antivirals. This is slightly different from bacteria becoming resistant to antibiotics or mosquitoes becoming resistant to pesticide.
Because of this, every new variant of Covid in the first year simply traded faster replication for easier attachment to a new host. This meant that every new variant infected more people, but the fatality rate was reduced.
The newest variants still follow this rule, except Delta has a new twist. It shows up in new symptoms. Where the older strains attacked the sinus membrane right where the sense of smell was located, and replicated there, the first symptom was loss of smell. This is also common with Rhinovirus, aka the common cold. The newest variants seem to prefer to do their initial replication near the vocal cords, esophagus, tonsils, adenoids and uvula. And because the tissues here are fertile grounds for it, it doesn't enter the bloodstream for several days.
Thus, the Delta variant no longer removes the victims sense of smell. The symptoms to look for are headache, sore throat, runny nose, fever and cough. By the time these symptoms emerge, however, the damage is already underway. The virus has a strong foothold, and the person has been contagious for several days.
Another consequence of this mutation is, while it replicates slower, it gets a "head start" on the body's normal defenses, by incubating where the body isn't looking for it. In a vulnerable person, this means it can damage them severely, causing a rise in hospitalizations and deaths.
Also, in a person with antibodies it can hide until it reaches the stage where it is detectable before the body reacts and kills it off, giving us our higher incidence of reinfections and "vaccine breakthrough" infections.
We do know that the vaccine is still effective, although slightly degraded, what we don't know is, with this new variant, how contagious is a typical "vaccine breakthrough" case.
The following is an educated theory of how our new enemy, Covid-19 is mutating, as it continues to attack us. It is pretty long and involved, let me know if anyone has questions.
A new mutation, primarily responsible for the damage the Delta Variant is causing is L452R. This, to me, appears to be an evolution of the E484K mutation. The viruses with L452R mutation are Delta and Kappa, and the major difference between these two seems to be which test finds them.
The success of a virus in an environment that is hostile to it, is primarily dependent on how easily it transmits, not how fast it replicates or how resistant it is to antivirals. This is slightly different from bacteria becoming resistant to antibiotics or mosquitoes becoming resistant to pesticide.
Because of this, every new variant of Covid in the first year simply traded faster replication for easier attachment to a new host. This meant that every new variant infected more people, but the fatality rate was reduced.
The newest variants still follow this rule, except Delta has a new twist. It shows up in new symptoms. Where the older strains attacked the sinus membrane right where the sense of smell was located, and replicated there, the first symptom was loss of smell. This is also common with Rhinovirus, aka the common cold. The newest variants seem to prefer to do their initial replication near the vocal cords, esophagus, tonsils, adenoids and uvula. And because the tissues here are fertile grounds for it, it doesn't enter the bloodstream for several days.
Thus, the Delta variant no longer removes the victims sense of smell. The symptoms to look for are headache, sore throat, runny nose, fever and cough. By the time these symptoms emerge, however, the damage is already underway. The virus has a strong foothold, and the person has been contagious for several days.
Another consequence of this mutation is, while it replicates slower, it gets a "head start" on the body's normal defenses, by incubating where the body isn't looking for it. In a vulnerable person, this means it can damage them severely, causing a rise in hospitalizations and deaths.
Also, in a person with antibodies it can hide until it reaches the stage where it is detectable before the body reacts and kills it off, giving us our higher incidence of reinfections and "vaccine breakthrough" infections.
We do know that the vaccine is still effective, although slightly degraded, what we don't know is, with this new variant, how contagious is a typical "vaccine breakthrough" case.
After being so careful - tested positive last night. Now waiting game to see if plays nice or goes into a full fledged monster within me .
I am not a democrat. Libertarian. I am fine with everyone making the choice of get vaccinated or not. But if they die because they decided to role the dice and see what happens I have no pity on them.
A libertarian who does not understand statistics very well. Could you tell us, by chance, what the covid mortality rate is for those under sixty five years of age?
Once you look that number up, think about it for a moment. And then decide if your posts concerning the dangers of dying from covid are just a weeeeeee bit exaggerated.
Since I doubt you will bother to do that, let me do it for you....
Here is the covid mortality rate for those under 65:
0.03% (this is the HIGHEST risk number I found in the data at 349 per 1,000,000 -- so, worst case)
Now, you compared that risk to "rolling the dice." What is the most unlikely outcome when one "rolls the dice" (lets say two die since that is most common)?
Answer: either a 2 or a 12. Each occurs with a probability of 1/36 or a 2.78% probability.
Now do you see any difference between a 0.03% probability and a 2.78% probability? I do. By a magnitude of approximately 93.
So what that basically means is that you are overexaggerating by AT LEAST 9300%.
If you want to compare that risk to games of chance, here is an approximation for you (not quite exact, but close): to get that probability of dying you would have to roll four dice and have all of them come up sixes AND then flip a coin and have it be a head. There is your chance of dying. That's a "roll of the dice" I wish I had the chance of getting with the far more deadly diseases we all risk every day.
After being so careful - tested positive last night. Now waiting game to see if plays nice or goes into a full fledged monster within me .
Prayer never hurts.
I may have a story to tell, next month.
Still waiting for some info.
There is a relatively high probability that each and every one of us will get exposed, sooner or later. What will matter is how our immune system responds, and where the virus finds places to hide in us.
From what I’m reading they still don’t know if that’s true.
They don't know much of anything about the "vaccine" yet, other than they have the luxury of conducting the largest medical trial every done in world history. Give them a few years and they will have all the answers.
Prayer never hurts.
I may have a story to tell, next month.
Still waiting for some info.
There is a relatively high probability that each and every one of us will get exposed, sooner or later. What will matter is how our immune system responds, and where the virus finds places to hide in us.
Yea - why I was so careful. 68/ recently had surgery and still recovering from that. I fit the criteria for a bad case, but I am a praying woman, love the sun - been drinking kumbacha lately and do my Vita D. What is really weird is my stomach is calm since I did first dose of the vaccine or is it the COVID??! Both happened at about the same time. In any case I think this was week 1 - felt pretty crappy, feeling ok - but hear that could be the calm before the storm.
But thanks for a very informative post.
But you’ve been wearing a face mask! How is this possible???
Family I live with my grands - one had to go to hosp with a stomach issue and her mom came to sit with her. Gave to her with out knowing yet, and she gave to me. Today everyone in the house getting tested. Her mom told us tested positive the following day. Oops too late - but she didn’t think needed a mask etc. It’s all political bs. Hm hm - she is ok now, but thought she’d die last week. The grand seems ok. I’m the elder. Crossing fingers.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
