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Old 05-03-2022, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,313,528 times
Reputation: 2114

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad_Jasper View Post
The jest of my OP (since you seemed to miss it) is that doubling the interest rate in an out-of-control housing market is a recipe for disaster.

That's not a complaint, that's an observation. The topic of this thread is "real estate bubble". My comments were related to that subject.

You are arguing with yourself for the sake of arguing.
I have no idea what profession is of the other person who was "arguing" the validity of the first post:

Quote:
The US now has an average mortgage payment 35% bigger than at the peak of the 2006 real estate bubble.
there's no context to this, except linking to

which I asked for the source, since I couldn't find it. Said source (beyond some possibly handcrafted reddittor's work) hasn't been produced. In trying to find it myself, I and at least 1 more have linked to official information which conflicts this.

Quote:
Mortgage interest rates on the 30 year have doubled under Biden.
Mortgage rates should have already been 5% since 2018. The economy had recovered. Free money was no longer needed to stimulate homebuying nor business investment.

You make it political when you attribute this to Biden. I didn't even vote for Biden. You take a snapshot - On Inauguration Day 2021, the 30 yr avg was 2.77% (per above chart). Last available they are 5.1%. New numbers come out tomorrow.

Quote:
Few saw the last bubble. Peter Schiff was mocked and even called a communist when he correctly called the last top. He sees another top.
there's a million people who claim they called the last bubble, and 10 million that have probably shut their mouths. As noted, it sounds like this Schiff fellow is a frequent recession-caller. He's bound to be right eventually.
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Old 05-03-2022, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Texas
37,956 posts, read 17,893,612 times
Reputation: 10376
When government inflates the money supply , which is inflation, it's not just food prices that sky rocket.
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Old 05-03-2022, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,198 posts, read 19,490,239 times
Reputation: 5308
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyebee Teepee View Post
yes, while I would - in the abstract - favor requirements that:

ARM's can't be < 7 yrs at original rate
to get an ARM, you must still DTI at the fixed rate OR
to get an ARM, you must have 20% down

the lenders have all the data they need to determine just who, from a financial standpoint, defaults on their loans.

And I daresay those categories, as of 2008, would be in this order:

Low downpayment
Low credit score at qualification
Excessive DTI
ARM's are typically qualified at the initial interest rate +2%. So even most 5 year ARMS's would not hit the rate in which the DTI was qualified at until year 7.
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Old 05-04-2022, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,313,528 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
ARM's are typically qualified at the initial interest rate +2%. So even most 5 year ARMS's would not hit the rate in which the DTI was qualified at until year 7.
that's good to know! It sure wasn't that way in '06 ... or there were that many stated income ("I need you to say your income is...") loans.
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Old 05-11-2022, 05:41 PM
 
26,542 posts, read 15,116,847 times
Reputation: 14688
Bad news trickling in from the real estate market.

Zillow and other people in the market say affordability is bad, demand is slowing, sentiment is falling, etc.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us...ability-crisis
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Old 05-25-2022, 08:55 AM
 
26,542 posts, read 15,116,847 times
Reputation: 14688
Quote:
New single-family home sales plunged by 16.6% from March and were down 26.9% year on year. New home sales dropped to the lowest level since the lockdown in April 2020.
https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news...ousing-bubble/
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:11 AM
 
Location: New York City
19,061 posts, read 12,736,864 times
Reputation: 14783
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
The US now has an average mortgage payment 35% bigger than at the peak of the 2006 real estate bubble.
Seems to be in line with inflation

Year Infl. Compound
2006 3.2% 03.2%
2007 2.9% 06.2%
2008 3.8% 10.2%
2009-0.4% 09.8%
2010 1.6% 11.5%
2011 3.2% 15.1%
2012 2.1% 17.5%
2013 1.5% 19.3%
2014 1.6% 21.2%
2015 0.1% 21.3%
2016 1.3% 22.9%
2017 2.1% 25.5%
2018 2.4% 28.5%
2019 1.8% 30.8%
2020 1.2% 32.4%
2021 4.7% 38.6%

SO about the same adjusted for inflation, except we don't have masses of subprime junk mortgages

That's not to mean the market won't tank, but it won't blow up the market because we don't have the same CDO problem
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Old 06-17-2022, 05:56 AM
 
Location: Annandale, VA
7,025 posts, read 2,722,931 times
Reputation: 7195
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJJersey View Post
We refinanced at the rock bottom of the mortgage rates. As rates increase, the value of homes will decrease. People will find themselves "upside-down" again. Not looking good for the immediate economic future.

We don't plan on ever moving again. You can't be "upside down" unless you are using your property as an investment and not a home.
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Old 06-17-2022, 06:18 AM
 
Location: Annandale, VA
7,025 posts, read 2,722,931 times
Reputation: 7195
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyebee Teepee View Post
I saw this from Aug '21, slightly different https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mor...enting-survey/

Said 48% of renters don't think they'll ever buy, because ...
Would anyone like these types of buyers as a neighbor? If they can't afford the down payment, how do you think they will be able to afford the maintenance and upkeep of the property? Do you want to live next door to a house that needs to be painted or has a tarp on the roof because they can't afford a new one??
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Old 06-17-2022, 06:55 AM
 
Location: New York City
19,061 posts, read 12,736,864 times
Reputation: 14783
Quote:
Originally Posted by Annandale_Man View Post
We don't plan on ever moving again. You can't be "upside down" unless you are using your property as an investment and not a home.
as long as you don't live in a hell hole like Long Island where teachers and cops make mid six figures so your annual property tax bill on a small bungalo is $20,000
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