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Your comments on this topic are ridiculous. There is no global population decrease, and no prospect of one in our lifetimes barring unexpected catastrophe.
This is a very real documented thing. For example you live in Japan which is a country that has had a massive slowdown and decrease in population. Even in the U.S largely due to Covid the population increased 0.1% which would be 1% in 10 years or 3,000,000 more people. Puerto Rico due to emigration of young has been fairly close to decline and had the lowest population growth in the Western Hemisphere. The entirety of the Western Hemisphere besides Haiti is below 2.4, Haiti is at 2.9.Ameri ca was at 2.9, circa 1965. Most of these countries are declining faster than that, and in 20-30 years the stats show that without immigration the Western Hemisphere will almost certainly lose population.
Last edited by NigerianNightmare; 04-19-2022 at 11:14 PM..
This is a very real documented thing. For example you live in Japan which is a country that has had a massive slowdown and decrease in population. Even in the U.S largely due to Covid the population increased 0.1% which would be 1% in 10 years or 3,000,000 more people. Puerto Rico due to emigration of young has been fairly close to decline and had the lowest population growth in the Western Hemisphere. The entirety of the Western Hemisphere besides Haiti is below 2.4, Haiti is at 2.9. 2000s America was at 2.9, circa 1965. Most of these countries are declining faster than that, and in 20-30 years the stats show that without immigration the Western Hemisphere will almost certainly lose population.
Yes, there is population decline in Japan. And yes, fertility rates are falling in most places. But my point stands.
Yeah, the idea that we're running out of oil is absolute lunacy. Global proved oil reserves are two and a half times now what they were in the 1970s. We routinely discover far more oil than we use.
Oil is great, and we'll probably always use it for some things. But we'll need less in the future as other energy technologies develop and mature. We'll likely never actually run out or even get to the point that it becomes super scarce and expensive.
We're not "running out of oil," but we are running out of cheap and easy to extract, refine, and transport oil, and are increasingly reliant on expensive, "tight"/unconventional oil ie shale, tar sands, and deep water oil. The techno-industrial civilization that man has built requires cheap and easy oil. It cannot function on expensive and difficult oil.
Yes, there is population decline in Japan. And yes, fertility rates are falling in most places. But my point stands.
Maybe, your older, but almost all statistics point to a global population loss by 2050 at the earliest, which is certainly within my lifetime all graphs point to decline before 2100, which is at the edge of my lifetime but certainly within the lifetimes of children born today. Take in mind this same number used to be in the 2200s+ or 2100s, but in the space of 10 years, has decreased rapidly. So if these new projections are getting closer and closer everyday, theirs a very real chance of population decline in 2040s.
So, even with the surplus of young people far more people are gonna die in the Western Hemisphere, Asia and Europe than will be born in Africa or any continent. Even focusing on global population decline misses the point, as most of the world's countries are facing this disaster of no growth and decline before 2040. The outright majority of nations and people. So even if technical global decline isn't till 2064, or 2080, national, regional and continental decline, it's well within the majority of our lifetimes, even people on this forum (The average age here is 40-50+).
Yes, there is population decline in Japan. And yes, fertility rates are falling in most places. But my point stands.
Also fertility has declined in all countries, since 1960, whatever period you want to use. Not a single one with an increase in fertility that could even be considered stable (France increased but it was already below 2.1 in 1990). Niger, used to be the one country exception and it no longer applies.
Maybe, your older, but almost all statistics point to a global population loss by 2050 at the earliest
Really, well, that should be of interest to the U.N. demographers who study this stuff for a living. Their most recent projection has world population rising throughout this century.
This private study does predict a peak in 2064 followed by decline, but it assumes below replacement fertility in all African countries by 2100. How likely is that?
Really, well, that should be of interest to the U.N. demographers who study this stuff for a living. Their most recent projection has world population rising throughout this century.
This private study does predict a peak in 2064 followed by decline, but it assumes below replacement fertility in all African countries by 2100. How likely is that?
It's pretty likely. The fertility rate in African cities is around 2-4. With Niger and Niamey again being the exception. The percent of Africans living in cities is expected to rise dramatically. Also rural fertility rates, have been dropping across Africa, also theirs's precedent worldwide with most societies seeing a decline in fertility. I personally see it in my family, with my grandparents having 5 and 11 children, and their children having 1-3 on average. One family has 4, and on my mother's side (5 children), only my mother and one of her sisters have children and the total number including myself is 4, the other two are childless and her brother have no children as well, and they all lived in Africa till adulthood.
My dad's side, I have less than 11 immediate cousins, because multiple of his siblings are childless.
Really, well, that should be of interest to the U.N. demographers who study this stuff for a living. Their most recent projection has world population rising throughout this century.
This private study does predict a peak in 2064 followed by decline, but it assumes below replacement fertility in all African countries by 2100. How likely is that?
With the fertility rate today, there'll be more and more ghost towns. A retired couple in France always wanted to retire in a small town in France, only to find empty storefronts, and for medical, a long drive to a bigger city.
I read in The Economist that so many are fleeing the small towns in Japan for Tokyo, one city, with a big population decline, has put manikins on street benches, so it appears less desolate.
But with that, those in the big cities looking for a more rural escape, 2nd home, there'll be lots of bargains.
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