Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The title of the article in its entirety is while you slept the economy collapsed,a good forum title would have been why you slept or pointed the finger at the other pathetic party the economy collapsed.
This article has all the info that I believe is really is what is happening to the economy and tells a different story then what we are hearing from the talking heads and our gvt.
The article has a little of everything and the writer did a great job of giving his references where you can check them out yourself.He talks about a wide range of subjects dealing with our economy and the misinformation we are getting.He hits on unemployment figures,USD,foreign investment,credit markets,and Tbill sales.
Here is a teaser for those he think we are in a recovery because the number of people losing their jobs was only 11,000 for November.
Unfortunately, it depends on who you ask. If you ask the Labor Department, the U.S. lost only 11,000 jobs in November, far less than forecast, and unemployment evened out to 10% from 10.2%. Great news, right? It would be, if it were true…
Other data shows that the major revision in job losses may be an overenthusiastic calculation by the Labor Department.
First, the holiday season is notorious for generating thousands of temporary, low-paying part time jobs with an average of only 15-20 hours a week. The Labor Department counts people working these jobs as fully employed even though they do not make nearly enough money to support themselves and most will likely lose their positions once the Christmas season is over. Even with this influx of minimum wage holiday jobs to dilute unemployment numbers, it appears most retailers are only hiring about half of the number of temporary workers they did last year: http://www.kidk.com/news/local/78476852.html
What this means is, unemployment will probably hit very hard in February and March when retailers begin cutting back once more, especially if Christmas profits fall short of target.
Second, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the Labor Department is grossly and deliberately misreporting unemployment figures. Other groups which measure unemployment, including the ADP, have released national job loss reports that greatly differ from that of the Labor Department for November. In most cases, the Labor Department “adjusts” its numbers a month later to match ADP’s more accurate assessments. Very rarely do the ADP’s numbers completely overshoot actual job loss calculations. For November however, the Labor Department predicted only 11,000 jobs lost, while the ADP measured 169,000 jobs lost! http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
This is a major discrepancy! Either the ADP has somehow calculated way off the mark (which rarely if ever happens), or the Labor Department has rigged the numbers. Such a discrepancy by the Labor Department could not be made accidentally. It is hard to say which one is the case, but since the ADP is consistently accurate, and the Labor Department has more reason to flub the statistics, I will have to lean towards the ADP’s numbers as a realistic representation of November job losses.
What is more frightening is that eventually, the Labor Department will have to account for all the lost jobs they hid last month. When they make this adjustment, it will seem as though job loss has exploded after a short lull. This will send an abrasive shock through markets next year. In fact, markets recently took a hit as the government reported that the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance at the beginning of December jumped much higher than analyst expectations: http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/10/news/economy/initial_jobless_claims/index.htm
I am by far no expert but willing to discuss the article and read what you think of the article. Neithercorp Press
The BLS also counts "jobs created" to offset those lost. They are estimating about 200K new jobs get created each month.
This is the birth/death model for the BLS and they upped the new jobs created this year from last year..why I have no idea since we are in a recession so the number of new jobs created should have been projected at less than what 2008 did. That's my opinion for what it's worth.
The BLS also counts "jobs created" to offset those lost. They are estimating about 200K new jobs get created each month.
This is the birth/death model for the BLS and they upped the new jobs created this year from last year..why I have no idea since we are in a recession so the number of new jobs created should have been projected at less than what 2008 did. That's my opinion for what it's worth.
The writer gives reference where there was 17,000 more people filing for unemployment beni's and our gvt labor dept is saying that unemployment fell to only 11,000 people losing their jobs in November.Looking at those two claims side by side it looks to me that they do not add up.
The reference he gives also has this:
But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.
Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired. Jobless claims jump surprisingly to 474,000 - Dec. 10, 2009
See,they fudge the numbers by not counting the people who are getting extensions.
So I think I would have to side with the writer when he comes to this logical conclusion:
This is a major discrepancy! Either the ADP has somehow calculated way off the mark (which rarely if ever happens), or the Labor Department has rigged the numbers. Such a discrepancy by the Labor Department could not be made accidentally. It is hard to say which one is the case, but since the ADP is consistently accurate, and the Labor Department has more reason to flub the statistics, I will have to lean towards the ADP’s numbers as a realistic representation of November job losses. Neithercorp Press
The title of the article in its entirety is while you slept the economy collapsed,a good forum title would have been why you slept or pointed the finger at the other pathetic party the economy collapsed.
This article has all the info that I believe is really is what is happening to the economy and tells a different story then what we are hearing from the talking heads and our gvt.
The article has a little of everything and the writer did a great job of giving his references where you can check them out yourself.He talks about a wide range of subjects dealing with our economy and the misinformation we are getting.He hits on unemployment figures,USD,foreign investment,credit markets,and Tbill sales.
Here is a teaser for those he think we are in a recovery because the number of people losing their jobs was only 11,000 for November.
Unfortunately, it depends on who you ask. If you ask the Labor Department, the U.S. lost only 11,000 jobs in November, far less than forecast, and unemployment evened out to 10% from 10.2%. Great news, right? It would be, if it were true…
Other data shows that the major revision in job losses may be an overenthusiastic calculation by the Labor Department.
First, the holiday season is notorious for generating thousands of temporary, low-paying part time jobs with an average of only 15-20 hours a week. The Labor Department counts people working these jobs as fully employed even though they do not make nearly enough money to support themselves and most will likely lose their positions once the Christmas season is over. Even with this influx of minimum wage holiday jobs to dilute unemployment numbers, it appears most retailers are only hiring about half of the number of temporary workers they did last year: http://www.kidk.com/news/local/78476852.html
What this means is, unemployment will probably hit very hard in February and March when retailers begin cutting back once more, especially if Christmas profits fall short of target.
Second, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the Labor Department is grossly and deliberately misreporting unemployment figures. Other groups which measure unemployment, including the ADP, have released national job loss reports that greatly differ from that of the Labor Department for November. In most cases, the Labor Department “adjusts” its numbers a month later to match ADP’s more accurate assessments. Very rarely do the ADP’s numbers completely overshoot actual job loss calculations. For November however, the Labor Department predicted only 11,000 jobs lost, while the ADP measured 169,000 jobs lost! http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
This is a major discrepancy! Either the ADP has somehow calculated way off the mark (which rarely if ever happens), or the Labor Department has rigged the numbers. Such a discrepancy by the Labor Department could not be made accidentally. It is hard to say which one is the case, but since the ADP is consistently accurate, and the Labor Department has more reason to flub the statistics, I will have to lean towards the ADP’s numbers as a realistic representation of November job losses.
What is more frightening is that eventually, the Labor Department will have to account for all the lost jobs they hid last month. When they make this adjustment, it will seem as though job loss has exploded after a short lull. This will send an abrasive shock through markets next year. In fact, markets recently took a hit as the government reported that the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment insurance at the beginning of December jumped much higher than analyst expectations: http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/10/news/economy/initial_jobless_claims/index.htm
I am by far no expert but willing to discuss the article and read what you think of the article. Neithercorp Press
Those temporary holiday jobs are created every year. Why is it all of a sudden different this year?
I was looking forward to some feedback and unfortunately only one poster replied.Thanks Happy Texan.So I decided to suck it up and bump my own thread,I did feel guilty then I justified it with the excuse that Joejitsu has about 12 threads blaming Bush or bashing {R}s
The next subject that the author talks about is the sad shape of Tbond sells and how foreigners are not buying them they are getting rid of them.Now we all know that the debt is 1.8 trillion for this year and the President has said that we might have to run deficit of 1 trillion for years to come.
We all know for us to run deficit is to sell Tbonds at auctions,lets look at the numbers for the auction that took place in October :
Foreign investment in U.S. debt has plummeted. Barack Obama is attempting to auction off $150 Billion in U.S. T-bills, but net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been only $8.3 billion. Even more disturbing, foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $43.9 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $38.3 billion. Meaning, not only are foreign investors NOT buying American debt, they are also beginning to get rid of the treasuries they already own! The biggest purchaser of U.S. Treasury debt is now the private Federal Reserve, printing money out of thin air and buying T-bills in order to prop up the value of its own currency! This cannot go on for much longer.
tg-443: Treasury International Capital Data for October (http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg443.htm - broken link)
And go here: TIC Data Confirms: Foreign Appetite Gone - The Market Ticker
The consequences of this are obvious. Eventually, our incredible debt will become unserviceable, and the dollar will become completely undesirable. The Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates and stop its endless printing, which will then pull the rug out from under the Dow and the T-bill market, making things even worse. Dollar proponents always seem to forget this very important detail; America is taking on more debt than it or any other country has in history. Without continued exponential investment from other countries, this debt will end the dollar, regardless of the weakness or strength of other national currencies, or the true rate of inflation.
Yep,this looks like recovery is just around the corner
Here is another must read where 700 billion of Tbonds have or claimed to be purchased by Household investors.Who are these household investors? http://www.tradersnarrative.com/is-i...heme-3393.html
The problem is your subject matter is beyond the knowledge level of about 99.999% of the folks here. Your post would probably be better received on the forums at The Economist or Harvard Business Review, if they exist.
Those temporary holiday jobs are created every year. Why is it all of a sudden different this year?
I do not think it is different this year from any other year,there is always employers seeking temps during the holidays.I would guess that the numbers between 2008 and 2009 would be about the same.
Those temporary holiday jobs are created every year. Why is it all of a sudden different this year?
One of my tenants works at Wal Mart, he told me that they laid off all of their seasonal employees around the 15th of December, where they usually keep them through the new year..
The problem is your subject matter is beyond the knowledge level of about 99.999% of the folks here. Your post would probably be better received on the forums at The Economist or Harvard Business Review, if they exist.
Well I have a scant education,and the info I posted is not that hard to understand.Did you read any of the articles?
I think what my thread needs is to bash the left or the right,so here it goes it is all Bush/Obama's fault.
Lurker here, watching this thread (which admittedly a bit is over my head) with interest.
and no, it wasn't the Bush/Obama bashing that caught my interest.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
