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capitalist firms will continue to replace expensive people with less expensive machines. Although our productivity will probably keep rising, we will continually have fewer "productive" jobs that create goods for export, and these will be increasingly concentrated as high-paying tech and management jobs, instead of blue collar work. therefore from an employment perspective we are eventually destined for a post-manufacturing society, no matter how much the old codgers cackle, croon, and crow about "how we need manufacturing jobs." I think it will be a net positive for society, but a severe transition for blue collar americans to cope with globalizaiton.
an auto mechanic, for example, is a service industry worker, a model for the future. for men, i think, you will eventually end up with a larger bulk of jobs that resemble an auto mechanic or a plumber, or perhaps specialized labor. the average american man will be trained in something vaguely resembling that, but he probably won't be paid very well, work very long, or make anything that can be exported to another country. these might be the steretypical careers that one might see on the television show 'dirty jobs', where you ultimately have working class men who "fill in the gaps" of tasks that can't be done by machines, yet.
with typical women's careers, that is an easy one. our political destiny is "big government spending" for health, education, and social programs. we will continue to expand the welfare state as much as we realistically can, because A) Aging baby boomers will demand it B) Democrats will support it and C) Women will demand it.
of course, i don't mean for the gender lines to be so rigid -- I think you will increasingly have women who forego child-rearing to shoot for the high-end management/tech positions I mentioned earlier, and you will have men who choose to take more economically stable "female careers" in health/education. I doubt you will have many women who see a need to fill the low-end male "dirty jobs" , though.
if there's some X factor, i guess it will be environmentally sustainable technology. at some point we're going to have to admit - either artificially through regulation or a good old-fashioned market-driven environmental catastrophe - that there is a hidden economic cost to environmental degradation.
^ Then what do you think of the role of the computer scientist in the future?
crystal ball says: "Outlook is good"
Of course it depends on what you're doing. I always had the opinion that a programmer/computer scientist's real value is in his or her domain knowledge. If you have domain knowledge of something that is easily exportable.. like, say, writing controller software for a remote control or a microwave oven.. then I doubt your job will survive in a high-cost area like the U.S. or western Europe.
if you're still getting your education, you might want to look at combinations like:
as opposed to showing up somewhere like Accenture or IBM with nothing but programming skills and asking, "Hey, will you guys train / employ me to do something economically useful?"
capitalist firms will continue to replace expensive people with less expensive machines. Although our productivity will probably keep rising, we will continually have fewer "productive" jobs that create goods for export, and these will be increasingly concentrated as high-paying tech and management jobs, instead of blue collar work. therefore from an employment perspective we are eventually destined for a post-manufacturing society, no matter how much the old codgers cackle, croon, and crow about "how we need manufacturing jobs." I think it will be a net positive for society, but a severe transition for blue collar americans to cope with globalizaiton.
an auto mechanic, for example, is a service industry worker, a model for the future. for men, i think, you will eventually end up with a larger bulk of jobs that resemble an auto mechanic or a plumber, or perhaps specialized labor. the average american man will be trained in something vaguely resembling that, but he probably won't be paid very well, work very long, or make anything that can be exported to another country. these might be the steretypical careers that one might see on the television show 'dirty jobs', where you ultimately have working class men who "fill in the gaps" of tasks that can't be done by machines, yet.
with typical women's careers, that is an easy one. our political destiny is "big government spending" for health, education, and social programs. we will continue to expand the welfare state as much as we realistically can, because A) Aging baby boomers will demand it B) Democrats will support it and C) Women will demand it.
of course, i don't mean for the gender lines to be so rigid -- I think you will increasingly have women who forego child-rearing to shoot for the high-end management/tech positions I mentioned earlier, and you will have men who choose to take more economically stable "female careers" in health/education. I doubt you will have many women who see a need to fill the low-end male "dirty jobs" , though.
if there's some X factor, i guess it will be environmentally sustainable technology. at some point we're going to have to admit - either artificially through regulation or a good old-fashioned market-driven environmental catastrophe - that there is a hidden economic cost to environmental degradation.
Great post!
I feel as more of the mundane tasks and jobs are done by robots etc. we will be freed up to focus on creativity and inventing. You are so right that there will be the "dirty jobs' but I also see many more "thinking" jobs. Especially as corporate hierarchy goes by the wayside.
As mentioned in le roi's post above, "green jobs" can entail just about anything to just about nothing. Its such a vague term that's pretty much meaningless the way it's thrown around.
As mentioned in le roi's post above, "green jobs" can entail just about anything to just about nothing. Its such a vague term that's pretty much meaningless the way it's thrown around.
Very true, I don't really count green make work projects as long term futuristic careers.
Once we see radical "green" energy being invented it will take a decade or two before it becomes mainstream and creates a new economy.
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