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I have noticed that a majority of the posts/rants on this site suffer from logical fallacy.
Logical fallacies are deceptive or false arguments that may seem stronger than they actually are due to psychological persuasion but are proven wrong with reasoning and further examination.
The most prevalent being "The Correlation/Causation Fallacy"
If two things appear to be correlated, this doesn't necessarily indicate that one of those things irrefutably caused the other thing. This might seem like an obvious fallacy to spot, but it can be challenging to catch in practice — particularly when you really want to find a correlation between two points of data to prove your point.
Example: Inflation is high, and we have a new POTUS. Therefore, the new POTUS must have caused the inflation.
However, this never seems to work on a positive level, like unemployment is at an all-time low, and we have a new POTUS. So naturally the new POTUS must have lowered unemployment.
I think that, in the instance you site, the burden of proof is on the one who claims that correlation does NOT mean causation. Inflation was low for years. Gas prices were around $2.00 per gallon for years. The stock market was climbing. Economic indicators were favorable. Then we got a new president, and BAM, within a few months, inflation shot up, gas prices skyrocketed, the stock market started dropping, and economic indicators become unfavorable. The variable in all this is the change in president. Thus, the appearance of correlation equaling causation is very strong. If one were arguing the counterargument, that person should be prepared to offer other explanations for why these things changed so sharply, so abruptly.
Correlation doesn't always prove causation, that's true. It also doesn't prove a lack of causation either. If anything it indicates that it's worth investigating if causation exists.
Well. Part of why this kind of thing is a problem is that even if there is some causation, if you are talking about things that operate in complex systems, the causation might have several steps between point A and point B. And people want easy, quick answers when sometimes the CORRECT answer is not easy or quick. And may involve a lot of factors that we may or may not even have access to good information about.
The example cited was new POTUS and inflation, meaning new POTUS is to blame for inflation. Well. If you really wanted to understand what caused inflation, you'd have to go back and research market conditions in a few key industries over the course of years. Not just a few years, either. It is not fully tied to just one thing, not even a thing as big as a global pandemic (though ripple effects from that are one of the biggest considerations.) The fact is, the US economy does not exist in a bubble. Those who retort with "why would I care what's happening in some other country?" are being deliberately ignorant to stick by their point which is just...I don't like that guy! Even looking at SOLELY gas prices, first of all anyone thinking of the "good ol days of low gas prices" during the peak of Covid shifts in mid 2020, like how can you even act like you're arguing in good faith with that? Obviously gas prices tanked when everyone suddenly stopped commuting and traveling. Duh? So those prices were artificially low. Did anyone really think that would last? Really? Then, because my work is connected to fuels markets among other things, I can tell you that the industries of extraction and refining decreased production during that time because storing gas no one had demand for was COSTING them money. Do you know that oil prices dipped into the negative for a minute during that time? As in, you couldn't give the stuff away? No one wanted to store it! So yeah, the dropped production and their profits went down. And afterwards they've been slow to bring back the production, and they've been taking advantage of "scarcity" to recoup losses and get back on their profit targets.
Now, I voted for Biden, and sure I like lower gas prices...I predicted that they would drop ahead of the midterms...but manipulating markets for political optics is risky. He's been releasing the reserves to do that. But depleting the reserves means that speculative futures markets will start to sweat, and in a worst case scenario we could see an actual shortage next year. Now I dunno about ya'll, but I'd rather pay $5+/gallon than see us hit a point next year where there's a shortage and gas stations are out of fuel and you can't buy it at any price! I can only hope that the administration (if not Biden, his advisors, who hopefully know a lot more than he does about all of this) have a plan to prevent that. The other problem with lowering prices here in the US when they are high everywhere else is, oil companies can then take their product to other markets where they can sell it for more. Again...points to a possible shortage. Worrying.
But see how many words it took me to even describe all of this? And I only scratched the surface. And only in one industry, albeit one that affects many other things. Most people are going to find it so much easier to just slap an "I did that!" Biden cartoon sticker on a gas pump and go "har har."
And nevermind the question of who exactly in government has influence over what. Why would Biden cause bad economic conditions during his own Presidency? It will make him look bad. Who benefits from him looking bad? Republicans do. And those who think that Republicans have no leverage or power to affect anything just because they don't hold the White House or a majority in either side of Congress...wow do you not know how this works. I have thought for a long time that the main reason that the national debt tends to drop during Democratic presidencies is because when a Dem is in charge, Republicans in Congress do everything they can to block everything (especially spending.) So sometimes, whether it is credit or blame, the people of this country lay it in the very opposite lap of where it really belongs.
Well. Part of why this kind of thing is a problem is that even if there is some causation, if you are talking about things that operate in complex systems, the causation might have several steps between point A and point B. And people want easy, quick answers when sometimes the CORRECT answer is not easy or quick. And may involve a lot of factors that we may or may not even have access to good information about.
The example cited was new POTUS and inflation, meaning new POTUS is to blame for inflation. Well. If you really wanted to understand what caused inflation, you'd have to go back and research market conditions in a few key industries over the course of years. Not just a few years, either. It is not fully tied to just one thing, not even a thing as big as a global pandemic (though ripple effects from that are one of the biggest considerations.) The fact is, the US economy does not exist in a bubble. Those who retort with "why would I care what's happening in some other country?" are being deliberately ignorant to stick by their point which is just...I don't like that guy! Even looking at SOLELY gas prices, first of all anyone thinking of the "good ol days of low gas prices" during the peak of Covid shifts in mid 2020, like how can you even act like you're arguing in good faith with that? Obviously gas prices tanked when everyone suddenly stopped commuting and traveling. Duh? So those prices were artificially low. Did anyone really think that would last? Really? Then, because my work is connected to fuels markets among other things, I can tell you that the industries of extraction and refining decreased production during that time because storing gas no one had demand for was COSTING them money. Do you know that oil prices dipped into the negative for a minute during that time? As in, you couldn't give the stuff away? No one wanted to store it! So yeah, the dropped production and their profits went down. And afterwards they've been slow to bring back the production, and they've been taking advantage of "scarcity" to recoup losses and get back on their profit targets.
Now, I voted for Biden, and sure I like lower gas prices...I predicted that they would drop ahead of the midterms...but manipulating markets for political optics is risky. He's been releasing the reserves to do that. But depleting the reserves means that speculative futures markets will start to sweat, and in a worst case scenario we could see an actual shortage next year. Now I dunno about ya'll, but I'd rather pay $5+/gallon than see us hit a point next year where there's a shortage and gas stations are out of fuel and you can't buy it at any price! I can only hope that the administration (if not Biden, his advisors, who hopefully know a lot more than he does about all of this) have a plan to prevent that. The other problem with lowering prices here in the US when they are high everywhere else is, oil companies can then take their product to other markets where they can sell it for more. Again...points to a possible shortage. Worrying.
But see how many words it took me to even describe all of this? And I only scratched the surface. And only in one industry, albeit one that affects many other things. Most people are going to find it so much easier to just slap an "I did that!" Biden cartoon sticker on a gas pump and go "har har."
And nevermind the question of who exactly in government has influence over what. Why would Biden cause bad economic conditions during his own Presidency? It will make him look bad. Who benefits from him looking bad? Republicans do. And those who think that Republicans have no leverage or power to affect anything just because they don't hold the White House or a majority in either side of Congress...wow do you not know how this works. I have thought for a long time that the main reason that the national debt tends to drop during Democratic presidencies is because when a Dem is in charge, Republicans in Congress do everything they can to block everything (especially spending.) So sometimes, whether it is credit or blame, the people of this country lay it in the very opposite lap of where it really belongs.
True - but the presumptions are not equal. This is exactly why the thing called "Causation Fallacy" is a term at all - because of our tendency to connect items that are -in reality - unconnected.
When the intent of a discussion is to paint the "other side" as the villain, the discussion is already lost... I find a lot of the rants/posts here are solely created with that mind. For the most part, they are void of any real debate; logical fallacies and confirmation biases are all feasible ways to project blame.
Gas prices are lower now... I doubt many thread starters blaming the president for high gas prices will return to congratulate. It doesn't fit the intent of placing blame.
Logical thinking has nothing to do with it.... it was pushed to the sideline from the getgo.
Having taught logic and fallacies for years, I can tell you that people basically have no idea
about fallacies or logic and could never spot one without training or studying. Don't know an argument All ages, even intelligent smart folks with good jobs. The thing is...this is human nature. Even geniuses make logical mistakes
I made plenty of them.
Sometimes you can make all the right logical choices...and still be wrong!
Stepping wide around your allusion to politics, I believe the near death of logic is largely restricted to the masses, who have been victimized by the reduction of true education in public schools. I am in the last wave of boomers, born in '56. I've spoken to this point in the Education forum. Without going into any depth, I noticed a distinct reduction of important aspects to a good education:
-- no emphasis on critical thinking
-- no essays required to show logically how a person supports their answers
-- no debates
There are other omissions, but I am restricting the factors I see to the loss of logic in our modern era, where the general public is concerned.
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