Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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Here's an interesting link to a Mid-Atlantic weather page. The lastest seasonal outlook for our area seems to be on the border of improvement and some improvement. See here: Mid-Atlantic Drought Information Click on the "U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook" image to view it at a larger size in a new window.
The good news for Falls Lake is that the areas to the North and West of the immediate Triangle appear to be forecasted for the most improvement. These are the areas that drain into Falls Lake (much like the recent storm did).
BTW, this forecast is from today until May. Perhaps this drought will begin to recede? Keep your fingers crossed! :-)
Good information although not what I wanted to see. I sure hope their predictions are off because other wise we are in for another problem year. Wonder how long this will last?!!
Good information although not what I wanted to see. I sure hope their predictions are off because other wise we are in for another problem year. Wonder how long this will last?!!
I am a bit confused. The news was that the short term forecast was improving. That's a good thing. If it were brown, it would be persisting. All of NC areas are either in the improvement or some improvement category. That's much better news than we have had in a long time.
Forecast is for another 1-2" between today and tomorrow! Looks like Meeker is already eyeing a reducting in restrictions so that businesses like car washes and power washers aren't so adversely impacted. Everything he's doing lately seems like a knee-jerk reaction. Seems as if he'd just enacted the Phase 1 restrictions earlier, we wouldn't have needed to get so agressive in the past couple of weeks.
So here's the deal. This rain will almost definitely finish filling Durhams reservoirs, and likely get Falls Lake back close to 250'...which makes it likely we'll get enough rain to bring Falls to full pool by the end of April.
Guess what. All these reservoirs were full last May, and it took 4 months to reach a crisis. Streamflows are still looking like they'll be 25% of normal after this weekends runoff ends (which beats the 5-10% level they were before it, but still not good). Returning to last spring and summers consumption patterns are a recipe to go through this crap all over again. So lets not get all comfy with the idea loosening restrictions on water consumption.
So here's the deal. This rain will almost definitely finish filling Durhams reservoirs, and likely get Falls Lake back close to 250'...which makes it likely we'll get enough rain to bring Falls to full pool by the end of April.
Guess what. All these reservoirs were full last May, and it took 4 months to reach a crisis. Streamflows are still looking like they'll be 25% of normal after this weekends runoff ends (which beats the 5-10% level they were before it, but still not good). Returning to last spring and summers consumption patterns are a recipe to go through this crap all over again. So lets not get all comfy with the idea loosening restrictions on water consumption.
Don't you think that adds some credence to the argument that this water shortage was about a heck of a lot more than lack of rainfall?!?! Honestly, through this entire drought (which I'm not attempting to minimize here) we've been at roughly 75% or more of average rainfall since 1/1/07. I'm in a business management field, and we generally manage things to the 80% cutoff...seems as though if our water supplies were being managed accordingly, we wouldn't have gotten into quite such a pickle.
Don't you think that adds some credence to the argument that this water shortage was about a heck of a lot more than lack of rainfall?!?! Honestly, through this entire drought (which I'm not attempting to minimize here) we've been at roughly 75% or more of average rainfall since 1/1/07. I'm in a business management field, and we generally manage things to the 80% cutoff...seems as though if our water supplies were being managed accordingly, we wouldn't have gotten into quite such a pickle.
The water shortage was about a lack of rainfall and a failure to manage the resource well. Two problems with your 75% of normal rainfall since 1/1/07 statistic. First, rainfall in Raleigh is irrelevant to Falls Lake...you need to watch rainfall in Northern Durham and Orange county, which was lower than that in Raleigh. Secondly, we had a wet winter and spring and the drought really did not kick in until May. After that, rainfall levels were more like 25% of normal. Last week prior to the rain, combined streamflows in the Eno, Flat and Little were 32 cfs. Normal combined streamflow is 370 cfs. To compare this to water usage, 32 cfs corresponds to 20 million gallons a day, less than what Durham in a day, let alone durham and raleigh combined.
What local municipalities need to start doing is looking at what is coming in to the system and account for what is going out. In May, streamflows plummeted at the same time water use skyrocketed for the summer watering season, and evaporative rates from the lake went up. That is the time to apply restrictions, to preserve long term supplies as much as possible.
The water shortage was about a lack of rainfall and a failure to manage the resource well. Two problems with your 75% of normal rainfall since 1/1/07 statistic. First, rainfall in Raleigh is irrelevant to Falls Lake...you need to watch rainfall in Northern Durham and Orange county, which was lower than that in Raleigh. Secondly, we had a wet winter and spring and the drought really did not kick in until May. After that, rainfall levels were more like 25% of normal. Last week prior to the rain, combined streamflows in the Eno, Flat and Little were 32 cfs. Normal combined streamflow is 370 cfs. To compare this to water usage, 32 cfs corresponds to 20 million gallons a day, less than what Durham in a day, let alone durham and raleigh combined.
What local municipalities need to start doing is looking at what is coming in to the system and account for what is going out. In May, streamflows plummeted at the same time water use skyrocketed for the summer watering season, and evaporative rates from the lake went up. That is the time to apply restrictions, to preserve long term supplies as much as possible.
toot, you make some very good points. I certainly understand that my 75% statistic was quite general, but even so it bears some consideration. There was clearly a drought and a VERY hot and dry summer and that contributed greatly to our problem. That said, just looking at streamflows and evaporative rates is not quite accurate either. Falls, Little River, Michie, Jordan, etc... are all reservoirs that were designed to store water for later use. So, after that wet winter and spring last year, we should've been sitting pretty once the dry spell started. In fact, we were, however we flushed and sprinkled away our water supply far too quickly.
Your second paragraph seems to be completely in line with my school of thought - manage our resources more effectively going forward, taking into consideration all variables (average rainfall, lake level, streamflow in, streamflow out, water use, evaporative rate, etc...) and we probably would not get into such dire straits given the same drought scenario in future years.
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