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No sane meteorologist guarantees much of anything. But I vividly remember, and will never forget Elizabeth Gardner saying there was ZERO chance of accumulation as I left for work on the night shift on a cool winter night in 2000. No chance of accumulation....several factors were mentioned to support this forecast.
All night, the WRAL staff were a good 3 to 4 hours behind what was going on outside...and never did admit their mistake as they continued to play catchup and deny what was happening outside. As 6" lay on the ground, they said not to worry, it would only collect on elevated or grassy surfaces, etc.
Weather forecasting is not an accurate science. It's a guessing game played to odds. but we've grown accustomed to taking the forecast as fact, not a guess. We should know better.
We must be remembering the same storm totally differently. I clearly remember them calling for 3-5 inches around mid afternoon, then, around 5 PM then were calling for 5-7", then, around 8 PM they said it was going to be a lot worse than expected and to brace for a tremendous snowfall. Which we got. I never heard them say it would only accumulate on grassy surfaces, at least after their mid afternoon forecast.
My hat is off to all of you who went to bed Friday night expecting 16" of rain and Floyd/Fran like results from Mathew. You were SO much smarter than me and the 17 dead and thousands of homeless who were watching the weather channel and expecting tropical weather in the very southeastern corner of NC.
Say what you want but NO one raised the red flag that historic floods were eminent. My heartburn is with the national tv network Weather Channel as that is who I monitored to advice me of dangerous weather and that warning never came.
We must be remembering the same storm totally differently. I clearly remember them calling for 3-5 inches around mid afternoon, then, around 5 PM then were calling for 5-7", then, around 8 PM they said it was going to be a lot worse than expected and to brace for a tremendous snowfall. Which we got. I never heard them say it would only accumulate on grassy surfaces, at least after their mid afternoon forecast.
The big 20+" snow storm that I believe was in 2000. I only watched the forecast on WRAL that day. And they went on and on about how it was a "non-event" and there was no chance of accumulation. I watched the 6pm forecast before leaving for work, and vividly remember her saying there was no chance of any measurable snowfall or accumulation. WRAL really, REALLY dropped the ball that night. And stayed 3-4 hours behind all night. We sat in the conference room at work, with a wall full of windows, watching the snow pile up outside...and laughing the entire time as WRAL continuously said "we may now see up to an inch before this one is over as a good 8" lay on the ground outside! We kept laughing and wondering if they had stepped outside all night?
Biggest single weather forecasting failure I've ever seen in my NC lifetime.
My hat is off to all of you who went to bed Friday night expecting 16" of rain and Floyd/Fran like results from Mathew. You were SO much smarter than me and the 17 dead and thousands of homeless who were watching the weather channel and expecting tropical weather in the very southeastern corner of NC.
Say what you want but NO one raised the red flag that historic floods were eminent. My heartburn is with the national tv network Weather Channel as that is who I monitored to advice me of dangerous weather and that warning never came.
Considering more people drowned TODAY I am hard pressed to blame the media here. Not sure what more can be done to keep people out of flood waters.
What difference does it make what the forecast was to people whose homes are flooded out? It's not like they can move their houses out of harm's way. What's really needed in eastern NC is a visit from the Army Corps of Engineers and some updated flood maps, along with the requirement for those people to buy flood insurance. Almost nobody out there has flood insurance and that's the real tragedy here as far as property is concerned.
all weather outlets I watched and monitored predicted 12 plus inches of rain in areas already dealing with flooding (Lumberton, Fayettville, surrounding areas). this was NOT a surprise, they were warning people in those areas well in advance of Friday. I'm not victim blaming because many people in those areas dont have access to multiple weather sources like many of the rest of us do, and even if they do, they don't have anywhere else to go, but weather channel is notoriously WRONG and I doubt homeless people were sitting around watching the weather channel anyway!
My hat is off to all of you who went to bed Friday night expecting 16" of rain and Floyd/Fran like results from Mathew. You were SO much smarter than me and the 17 dead and thousands of homeless who were watching the weather channel and expecting tropical weather in the very southeastern corner of NC.
Say what you want but NO one raised the red flag that historic floods were eminent. My heartburn is with the national tv network Weather Channel as that is who I monitored to advice me of dangerous weather and that warning never came.
Weren't most of deaths after Matthew left? I remember Sunday saying that 5 died in NC. Since then it's gone up to 17 or 18 and most have been due to people trying to drive through flooded streets.... heck 1 person passed a blockade and drowned. You can't blame the media at this point when the effects are obvious. When someone is ordered today to evacuate because a damn might break they can't say "Well the weatherman said it wouldn't rain as much Saturday so whatever happens is his fault".....
Weren't most of deaths after Matthew left? I remember Sunday saying that 5 died in NC. Since then it's gone up to 17 or 18 and most have been due to people trying to drive through flooded streets.... heck 1 person passed a blockade and drowned. You can't blame the media at this point when the effects are obvious. When someone is ordered today to evacuate because a damn might break they can't say "Well the weatherman said it wouldn't rain as much Saturday so whatever happens is his fault".....
When I lived in Louisiana, a sheriff went around requesting evacuations. Some people decided to have hurricane parties and not leave.
He told those that refused to write their social security numbers on their arms with indelible marker so he'd know who perished when it was time to bury them.
I had gotten to the point I took their forecast as Gospel but never again.
Not to be crass but it sounds like the problem was with you.
I have never seen a weather forecaster say their forecast was gospel. Any weather forecast, especially hurricanes, depends on computer models and simulations which tend to disagree. The forecaster has to take the data and make a prediction based on disagreeing elements.
As it pertains to hurricanes, the path and intensity of the hurricane are guided by external contributions. Water temperature tend to guide the strength while a high pressure system guides the direction of the hurricane. After that it's a battle of which system is stronger the high or low (the hurricane).
I'm not a meterologist, but I've lived in FL and paid attention to hurricane warnings. A reasonable person could understand, at a basic level, the forces involved in hurricanes and that the relationship between all of the data points. The rest is up to mother nature.
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