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"Though the storm's path remains uncertain, forecasters use tools like spaghetti models to make predictions about the most likely outcomes. These models show various possible paths a storm could take based on different atmospheric conditions, statistical models, and paths other storms have followed in the past.
However, meteorologists generally prefer that people don't turn to these charts for information about coming storms, since they can be confusing to look at and don't necessarily convey information that's useful to people bracing for a hurricane.
For example, not every line in that mess of spaghetti carries equal weight in predicting the storm's path. And many of these charts made with "little or no accuracy or skill," as the National Center for Atmospheric Research's website puts it.
Plus, some storms' conditions make their paths and potential impacts harder to predict than others, and variables like wind shear, dry air, and the presence of a land mass can lead a storm's effects to be felt far from any spaghetti lines.
In the case of Hurricane Dorian, the models generally show that it's likely to head toward the Bahamas and then Florida."
When there is a storm with name started with the letter F headed our way...that's when we need to get worried.
F-named storms seem to always paint a bullseye on NC!
I was fortunate to have missed Florence (except for a little leftover rain), but Fran and Floyd...not so much. I was living in Fremont when Fran hit and it tore up the area pretty good. When Floyd hit, 10-year old me was in Warsaw catching crawdaddies and fish in the front yard...or back, whichever I felt like. Fun times!
Every advisory has jogged this storm incrementally north/east. Definitely need to pay attention to this one for a few days. Levi is excellent but very technical. Allan Huffman is my go-to for local weather.
I was fortunate to have missed Florence (except for a little leftover rain), but Fran and Floyd...not so much. I was living in Fremont when Fran hit and it tore up the area pretty good. When Floyd hit, 10-year old me was in Warsaw catching crawdaddies and fish in the front yard...or back, whichever I felt like. Fun times!
7 year old Nick was terrified huddling under the fort made under the coffee table when Fran was taking out every tree in the neighborhood and rain was forcing its way through the windows to wet the curtains.
10 year old Nick was like "come at me bro" with Floyd (Floyd wasn't as bad in the immediate Triangle area as Fran lol) and happy to out of school early.
29 Year old Nick with Frances thought "well that was a disappointment; that long trip to Costco was for naught!"
this afternoon, we are getting our water supplies together.
essentially, filling up containers from our faucet.
still have some gallon jugs with "drinking water"
left over from Micheal last year.
we lost power for ~3 days
in Orange County.
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