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Old 10-19-2021, 07:13 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,244,339 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HouseBuilder328 View Post
The hospital COVID-19 census is back down to where it was in June. I'm happy and the entire staff is happy also. We finally get a break.



I hope the scientists who said that there will not be many variants anymore - are correct. It's mainly due to that the coronavirus has invaded the entire Earth and nowhere for it to go.
that's great news!

Does anybody know if the Wake Co Commissioners discussed the mask mandates yesterday?
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Old 10-19-2021, 07:23 AM
 
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Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
that's great news!

Does anybody know if the Wake Co Commissioners discussed the mask mandates yesterday?
One would hope they would wait until the risk levels drop from the current "very high" level of 15-30 cases/100K in the surrounding counties to a "low" level of below 2 cases/100k, and additionally wait for vaccine approval for school age children. And in all honesty wait until after the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays before considering any change.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:01 AM
 
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Originally Posted by toot68 View Post
One would hope they would wait until the risk levels drop from the current "very high" level of 15-30 cases/100K in the surrounding counties to a "low" level of below 2 cases/100k, and additionally wait for vaccine approval for school age children. And in all honesty wait until after the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays before considering any change.
There should be some metric they are using as a determinant (e.g. number of cases/hospitalizations/etc. below a trigger threshold for xx # of weeks/months). I can understand why they wouldn't want to communicate what that metric is to avoid the "we hit this metric for 6 weeks, why are masks still required..." questions.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:15 AM
 
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Originally Posted by cheapdad00 View Post
There should be some metric they are using as a determinant (e.g. number of cases/hospitalizations/etc. below a trigger threshold for xx # of weeks/months). I can understand why they wouldn't want to communicate what that metric is to avoid the "we hit this metric for 6 weeks, why are masks still required..." questions.
The metric used to be below 5% positive tests (over a 14 day average I believe). Wake has been well below that for some time now.

But honestly the goalposts move so much, it's impossible to keep track.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toot68 View Post
One would hope they would wait until the risk levels drop from the current "very high" level of 15-30 cases/100K in the surrounding counties to a "low" level of below 2 cases/100k, and additionally wait for vaccine approval for school age children. And in all honesty wait until after the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays before considering any change.
well, the word was in September that we needed to be below 5% positive tests. We've been there for 3 weeks now.

And Wake Co at least is highly-vaccinated - about 80% of adults AND almost 80% of all 12+. Durham and Orange are very similar.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:27 AM
 
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Originally Posted by m378 View Post
The metric used to be below 5% positive tests (over a 14 day average I believe). Wake has been well below that for some time now.

But honestly the goalposts move so much, it's impossible to keep track.
The metric has never been solely % positive cases, it is % positive cases AND case counts/capita. A high % positive cases along with a low case count/capita indicates an undercounting of cases. The reverse, a low % positive along with elevated case count/capita indicates that you are likely capturing an accurate picture of case counts/capita, but low positivity and high case counts is not an indication that community spread risk is low.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:34 AM
 
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Originally Posted by BoBromhal View Post
well, the word was in September that we needed to be below 5% positive tests. We've been there for 3 weeks now.

And Wake Co at least is highly-vaccinated - about 80% of adults AND almost 80% of all 12+. Durham and Orange are very similar.
Durham county is at 15 cases/100K, Orange is at 16 cases/100K wake is at 19 cases/100K. You only listen to the words you want to hear. Low % positive tests and elevated case counts/capita is not an indication of low risk of community spread, it is just an indication you are capturing a relatively accurate count of cases in the area.


COVID-19 in the Triangle: No Politics, Read the Rules Before Posting-screen-shot-2021-10-19-10.31.21
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:39 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
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https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/ral...ow-5/19887465/

that's just the news report; I suppose we'd have to watch the entire City Council session to hammer in on details.

This was mentioned too

Quote:
"As long as hospitalizations remain where they are, nothing is going to change," said Raleigh Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin.
here's the County declaration

https://www.wakegov.com/news/wake-co...ovid-19-spread

https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/w...ATION-2021.pdf

in that, you'll note "substantial spread per CDC".

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

Substantial is > 50 cases/100K in 7 days (I can only assume 7-day average) or 8+% test positivity. And if both aren't met, then just meet 1 to stay in the higher bracket.

We've had 2,044 cases in the last 7 days. On average/100K that would be 29 cases/100K.

If it isn't a 7-day average, and instead is just the 7-day total ... we'll never drop the mask mandate unless Covid completely disappears. And I fear that may be the case (204 cases/100K) since they don't even call us moderate; they say we have high transmission.

We have only been "moderate transmission", by a 7-day total, 2x. Before May 26, 2020, and for a brief period mid-June 2021 to early July 2021.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,116 posts, read 16,244,339 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toot68 View Post
Durham county is at 15 cases/100K, Orange is at 16 cases/100K wake is at 19 cases/100K. You only listen to the words you want to hear. Low % positive tests and elevated case counts/capita is not an indication of low risk of community spread, it is just an indication you are capturing a relatively accurate count of cases in the area.


Attachment 232460
The Wake County order expires Nov 1, 2021 at 7 am. Per the declaration that I read, not heard.
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Old 10-19-2021, 08:44 AM
 
9,265 posts, read 8,288,991 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toot68 View Post
The metric has never been solely % positive cases, it is % positive cases AND case counts/capita. A high % positive cases along with a low case count/capita indicates an undercounting of cases. The reverse, a low % positive along with elevated case count/capita indicates that you are likely capturing an accurate picture of case counts/capita, but low positivity and high case counts is not an indication that community spread risk is low.
I guess? I won't disagree cause again, it seems to always be changing. If you can show me it hasn't changed, I will shut up. Also it's always come from different sources. Federal, state, county, town. Our mask mandate in Cary is town-based, not county-based.

I agree with it being at the local level, but it's extremely disorganized and there's no set goals.
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