WRAL: Report: Raleigh will be No. 3 hottest housing market, prices to soar 24% (Cleveland: renters, mortgage)
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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Who would have thought we would see the day that people sold their homes in Raleigh for a big profit to live in a more geographically desirable region ( mountain , coast, rural) where they could purchase more home for less than they could here?Hah. I have to say, Raleigh is headed the way Seattle and Austin did with high home prices. The cycle is completing itself . Cheap-> Growth-> Expensive-> Growth Peaks-> Stagnation. Its a cycle all American cities have gone through growing up.
I never thought that when I left the economic wasteland of Western NC that 15 years later, it would look like the more safe financial decision.
Prices there have gone up recently too, but much more manageable and a lot of locals have started to sell their homes because the pandemic brought in an influx of outside buyers.
I never thought that when I left the economic wasteland of Western NC that 15 years later, it would look like the more safe financial decision.
Prices there have gone up recently too, but much more manageable and a lot of locals have started to sell their homes because the pandemic brought in an influx of outside buyers.
Western NC is an even more heartbreaking story imo. Area is flooding in with outsiders purchasing in, rampant home building etc. In a very pretty area that has high biodiversity and needs more protection. Ooof. Even the mountains are expensive here now and losing their distinct Appalachian culture in exchange for mainstream Publix/Chic-Fil-A/Goat Yoga/Soccer Mom typical Americana suburban culture.
Its how our country works. I mean, I guess you could sell and go be rich in Oklahoma. Tulsa is doing good. That's what the people who moved here 10-20 years ago did, sold in New Jersey or wherever and came here to live a more lavish life for cheaper. I know get called harsh, but this is why I call this the scavenging system. An area is cheap, desirable, people swoop in with more money from other areas, area gets more expensive , middle class pushed out, area stagnates, and then on to the next greener pasture.
I am open to living anywhere that will offer me a solid quality of life. I need a quaint home with a nice garage and some acreage.
My dream was to purchase a home in Chatham county/Pittsboro but unfortunately the pandemic and Chatham Park have now made that an unobtainable reality. It will be just like Cary in short order.
I am open to living anywhere that will offer me a solid quality of life. I need a quaint home with a nice garage and some acreage.
My dream was to purchase a home in Chatham county/Pittsboro but unfortunately the pandemic and Chatham Park have now made that an unobtainable reality. It will be just like Cary in short order.
You’ll have to look further out . If you are open to it , there are some “ slower “ growing counties next to Wake like Franklin which may be nice for you. I think you should check out Franklin County Zebulon/Youngsville area . Also hah, apparently Louisburg lost population in the latest census.
Most homeowners are content here and realize they are only "rich" on paper. They fully understand that yeah... in theory.....they can make a "killing" when they sell; but then what? They also fully understand that they are then going to get bent over big time when they become a buyer. The net effect, no one wants to sell and thus super low inventory. Of course, builders can't build fast enough to make up for the loss of resales. Building supply and labor issues certainly don't help. Also, not everyone wants a cookie cutter treeless tiny lot new build 30 miles out.
This is happening all over the country; don't think Raleigh is special or unique. For instance, Springfield Illinois; yes, Springfield IL. Nothing special... literally middle of corn fields. Though, it is the capital of Illinois, adopted home on Lincoln (buried there), and the birthplace of the horseshoe sandwich and the corndog. Touch of Americana as well as Route 66 goes through and Bunn coffee (quintessential roadside diner/cafe) was started and currently HQd there. Anyways, I keep an eye on it as my family is still there and I guess I still consider it my "hometown". It is a town of 120K and currently has, according to Zillow, 20 homes for sale between 300k-600k. 20! This is the price range to include the houses where most middle to upper middle class folks would want to live there......trust me. Usually, there are 100-200 homes of that nature for sale in that market. Again, I follow. Think about that and what that does to prices and the buying experience. I can't believe what many of these homes are currently selling for. Just a couple years ago they would have been 50-100k less.
What are folks supposed to do to afford a home; move to Lamar, Colorado?
This is not healthy or sustainable. Full disclosure, I am a homeowner.
Most homeowners are content here and realize they are only "rich" on paper. They fully understand that yeah... in theory.....they can make a "killing" when they sell; but then what? They also fully understand that they are then going to get bent over big time when they become a buyer. The net effect, no one wants to sell and thus super low inventory. Of course, builders can't build fast enough to make up for the loss of resales. Building supply and labor issues certainly don't help. Also, not everyone wants a cookie cutter treeless tiny lot new build 30 miles out.
This is happening all over the country; don't think Raleigh is special or unique. For instance, Springfield Illinois; yes, Springfield IL. Nothing special... literally middle of corn fields. Though, it is the capital of Illinois, adopted home on Lincoln (buried there), and the birthplace of the horseshoe sandwich and the corndog. Touch of Americana as well as Route 66 goes through and Bunn coffee (quintessential roadside diner/cafe) was started and currently HQd there. Anyways, I keep an eye on it as my family is still there and I guess I still consider it my "hometown". It is a town of 120K and currently has, according to Zillow, 20 homes for sale between 300k-600k. 20! This is the price range to include the houses where most middle to upper middle class folks would want to live there......trust me. Usually, there are 100-200 homes of that nature for sale in that market. Again, I follow. Think about that and what that does to prices and the buying experience. I can't believe what many of these homes are currently selling for. Just a couple years ago they would have been 50-100k less.
What are folks supposed to do to afford a home; move to Lamar, Colorado?
This is not healthy or sustainable. Full disclosure, I am a homeowner.
Thanks for that. Very unusual , and honestly I’ve argued this in another thread but this gives more warrant to my belief ( which is supported by some experts ) that this isn’t necessarily a housing shortage . Something more is going on here . Is Springfield a growing area ? Raleigh isn’t special or unique , however due to pressures from new corporations moving in (Apple) our housing prices will jump considerably more than other cities . It makes me wonder . In places like San Francisco , the issue is the people who work their restaurants / schools / law enforcement can’t afford to live in the city . Wonder if that becomes an issue here eventually.
Most homeowners are content here and realize they are only "rich" on paper. They fully understand that yeah... in theory.....they can make a "killing" when they sell; but then what? They also fully understand that they are then going to get bent over big time when they become a buyer. The net effect, no one wants to sell and thus super low inventory. Of course, builders can't build fast enough to make up for the loss of resales. Building supply and labor issues certainly don't help. Also, not everyone wants a cookie cutter treeless tiny lot new build 30 miles out.
This is happening all over the country; don't think Raleigh is special or unique. For instance, Springfield Illinois; yes, Springfield IL. Nothing special... literally middle of corn fields. Though, it is the capital of Illinois, adopted home on Lincoln (buried there), and the birthplace of the horseshoe sandwich and the corndog. Touch of Americana as well as Route 66 goes through and Bunn coffee (quintessential roadside diner/cafe) was started and currently HQd there. Anyways, I keep an eye on it as my family is still there and I guess I still consider it my "hometown". It is a town of 120K and currently has, according to Zillow, 20 homes for sale between 300k-600k. 20! This is the price range to include the houses where most middle to upper middle class folks would want to live there......trust me. Usually, there are 100-200 homes of that nature for sale in that market. Again, I follow. Think about that and what that does to prices and the buying experience. I can't believe what many of these homes are currently selling for. Just a couple years ago they would have been 50-100k less.
What are folks supposed to do to afford a home; move to Lamar, Colorado?
This is not healthy or sustainable. Full disclosure, I am a homeowner.
Look for more affordable housing in a less desirable area, OR, work towards getting a higher paying job.
Last edited by uncchgrad; 01-10-2022 at 12:00 PM..
We’re in it for the long haul. When our kids are through college in 15 years we’ll sell and move somewhere less expensive or downsize to a much smaller place closer to the coast.
I'm on a very similar path in my thinking, albeit a couple/few years behind you schedule.
Thanks for that. Very unusual , and honestly I’ve argued this in another thread but this gives more warrant to my belief ( which is supported by some experts ) that this isn’t necessarily a housing shortage . Something more is going on here . Is Springfield a growing area ? Raleigh isn’t special or unique , however due to pressures from new corporations moving in (Apple) our housing prices will jump considerably more than other cities . It makes me wonder . In places like San Francisco , the issue is the people who work their restaurants / schools / law enforcement can’t afford to live in the city . Wonder if that becomes an issue here eventually.
We bought our home new in 2013 for $324k and two identical homes in our neighborhood sold in the last few months for $680k and 690k. Ours is actually a little bigger since we have a huge walk in closet in place of the open foyer the other two have, so it adds about 50 extra square feet. If prices even rise another 15% this year we're looking at selling in the high $700-$800k range. That would be a 250% increase in 10 years!
With that being said we're not going to sell because we have good careers here and we're in a great neighborhood really close to good schools, but yeah that's nuts. I don't see us going up another 15% let alone 24% this year, but no one really has the answers. A lot of other forces could come into play too.
Yeah the only segment of the market I see that 24% increase being POTENTIALLY attainable is in the entry-level market where the greatest need, highest demand, and extremely small and non-growing supply is.
I purchased a 2 bed 2 bath 950 sq ft condo in Chapel Hill for $109k in 2016. A hyper-updated unit with the same floorplan listed for $315k last month and to my shock went under contract within 2 days. I am very curious to see what it closes at later this month because there are 0 comps to support anything near that price for that floorplan but we'll see. Realistically mine with the more modest updates I've done over the last several years could fetch probably $210-$215ish today. 24% through 2022 would put it in the $260s by this time next year. Feels like a BIG stretch but not necessarily inconceivable. I have been renting it out for the past 6 months and enjoy the cashflow but yeah it would be tough to not sell it at that point and walk away with a nice chunk of change. Even half that at a 12% increase, putting it in the mid $230s would be VERY tempting.
The gentleman from whom I bought my 3 bed 2.5 bath 1300 sq ft SFH in NW Raleigh in July 2021 got more than double what he paid 10 years prior in 2011 ($158k to $327k). It would comp out right around $340k-350k now (Zillow says $379k; if only). $421k by Q4 2022 seems unlikely. Though a 10% increase to $375kish doesn't sound outside of the realm of possibility.
But just like always; there is no crystal ball.
Last edited by TarHeelNick; 01-10-2022 at 12:04 PM..
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