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How could NAR justify the statement that prices were up in 62% of the metropolitan areas. That is so far fetched from the truth that it makes you wonder where NAR is getting their statistics from!
Hmm. Saying home prices are up is a bit misleading given hardly anything is selling. If you have 2 homes that sell, one for $100K, one for $300K, then the median price is $200K.
If you sold twice as many homes previously for the following prices: 100,000, 250,000, 120,000, and 150,000, you'll get a median price of $124K and ta da, median home prices (shown above) are about 63% higher than the prior quarter.
You can spin numbers any way you want. It may not be lying but it's a bit disingenuous.
Hernando County MLS has had an inventory of right around 4200 homes over the last 12 months. The highest was around 4265, the lowest around 4180, right now 4195.
Monthly units sold were between 120 and 140 each month.
Median price Sept 2006 was $179,900 and went as low as $176,900 and as high as $184,900 over the last 12 months. Sept 2007 was 180,900.
You are not going to see a positive trend many places but you will see some leveling off.
One thing many people tend to forget is that 2004 and 2005 were not normal markets so comparing now till then it will always look bad.
Even when we get back to a normal market, sales will look bad compared to the volume in those years.
Mike, I told you in my original post that "inventory levels are through the roof".
You disagreed w/my post and gave me inventory levels for '07. That is all fine and good but how many months of inventory does your county/market currently have? I'd have to guess 12 months at least or more. How does your inventory levels compare to 2 years ago? 5 years ago? This tells the true picture of Florida real estate. There will be much pain for a long time coming. You also didn't provide # of units sold. How do they compare YOY for the past 3-5 years??
Median price levels don't mean squat on how a market is doing. Realtors/NAR uses this tactic when more expensive homes are built sold to deceive people in thinking home prices are actually "rising"...couldn't be further from the truth.
Also, your foreclosure rates for the county jumped over 100% for '07 compared to '06 (breaking a previous high).
Lets just try to paint an accurate portrait w/o spinning things like the NAR does, that's all.
Mike, I told you in my original post that "inventory levels are through the roof".
You disagreed w/my post and gave me inventory levels for '07. That is all fine and good but how many months of inventory does your county/market currently have? I'd have to guess 12 months at least or more. How does your inventory levels compare to 2 years ago? 5 years ago? This tells the true picture of Florida real estate. There will be much pain for a long time coming. You also didn't provide # of units sold. How do they compare YOY for the past 3-5 years??
Median price levels don't mean squat on how a market is doing. Realtors/NAR uses this tactic when more expensive homes are built sold to deceive people in thinking home prices are actually "rising"...couldn't be further from the truth.
Also, your foreclosure rates for the county jumped over 100% for '07 compared to '06 (breaking a previous high).
Lets just try to paint an accurate portrait w/o spinning things like the NAR does, that's all.
I didn't disagree with anything.
I just gave some stats which did include units sold.
I also pointed out one key fact many people gloss over when comparing the current market to 2 years ago.
2 years ago was in no way a normal market.
Mike, I told you in my original post that "inventory levels are through the roof".
You disagreed w/my post and gave me inventory levels for '07. That is all fine and good but how many months of inventory does your county/market currently have? I'd have to guess 12 months at least or more. How does your inventory levels compare to 2 years ago? 5 years ago? This tells the true picture of Florida real estate. There will be much pain for a long time coming. You also didn't provide # of units sold. How do they compare YOY for the past 3-5 years??
Median price levels don't mean squat on how a market is doing. Realtors/NAR uses this tactic when more expensive homes are built sold to deceive people in thinking home prices are actually "rising"...couldn't be further from the truth.
Also, your foreclosure rates for the county jumped over 100% for '07 compared to '06 (breaking a previous high).
Lets just try to paint an accurate portrait w/o spinning things like the NAR does, that's all.
That's something I haven't thought of. Bigger homes are being built and thus causing the median price to rise.
Let's not forget the inclusion of closing cost credits and other goodies (plasma TV, granite countertops, jacuzzi, etc) to artificially levitate comps and not tick off previou new construction purchasers. Toll Brothers CEO commented on this and openly admitted that it's a tactic used to not make earlier purchasers upset.
In other news, Freddie Mac is cutting its dividends by half. This isn't subprime anymore:
newsobserver.com | Freddie Mac dividend cut in half (http://www.newsobserver.com/business/nc/story/797771.html - broken link)
Also, the gubmint guarantee is "implied", and might be tested as the unthinkable might happen (Freddie/Fannie go bankrupt).
Just the thing Joe six pack needs. More tax dollars to subsidize private organizations. I suppose we will all be good communists and pay up.
Last edited by InflationNation; 11-28-2007 at 07:12 AM..
I didn't disagree with anything.
I just gave some stats which did include units sold.
I also pointed out one key fact many people gloss over when comparing the current market to 2 years ago.
2 years ago was in no way a normal market.
Mike, # of units sold has some meaning if you provide YOY #'s adjusted seasonally. Telling me that 120-140 sell per month basically means nothing.
We all know the market reached its peak in Fl 2 yrs ago and wasn't normal. The key is how long is it going to take you to get your inventory levels (and pricing) back to historical levels? 1 year? 5 years? 8-10 years??
That's interesting. Would you mind sharing numbers for your market (YOY inventory levels, # of units sold) also along w/foreclosure rates. I'm curious to see if you're going through a dead cat bounce or a long term positive trend.
thanks
CJ - I will be happy to post the info - I'm not a computer whiz though - and I'm not sure you can access the link our ARMLS system - I will post it later though and let's see what happens
CJ - I will be happy to post the info - I'm not a computer whiz though - and I'm not sure you can access the link our ARMLS system - I will post it later though and let's see what happens
The ARMLS stats can be found here, but they are hard to decipher:
It doesn't show how things are trending. You'd have to take a look at previous October stats and do a rudimentary comparison.
Question: is there more than one Realtor Association for the greater Phoenix area? I find it hard to believe that less than 900 homes/condos were sold in Phoenix in October. That's what October sales were in our area, and we're nowhere near as large as Phoenix (our metro is about 800K).
Obviously. as usual NAR has put a spin to these numbers. NAR has been notorious for fudging numbers and their forecasts going back the last 12 months have always been misleading, if not outright lies.
Some real numbers, provided by somebody who does not have a vested interest to fudge numbers for the benefit of their members.
DQNews - Southern California Press Release (http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA1107.shtm - broken link)
See how LA prices are down in the above but NAR shows in their statistics its up. If sales are down 30-40% there is no way prices are going to be up.
Las Vegas inventories are clearly decreasing as well though I would put little stock in small decreases unless they last past spring. There is an annual cycle that tends to depress inventory in the last quarter.
Phoenix sales are well down though they appear relatively better than Las Vegas.
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