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Really? They sell houses to put food on the table. You think they are going to tell you if we are headed toward a bubble? Do you trust the guy at the used car lot?
Do you trust consumers when they reveal their inner values this clearly?
So, step up and fill in the blanks below:
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeJaquish
So, bubble fans, tell me the top, the bottom, and when they will both be documented on a calendar, and then tell me why people might want to buy or sell or sit it out.
Make it personal and specific, but include 50 states.
Then, stand behind your reasons and advice.
I saw so much predatory stuff, accompanied by, "It's a great time to buy a house!" 7-9 years ago, I don't promote home purchase at all any more. "I help people who have made independent decisions to buy or sell based on their own interpretations of economic trends and their personal wants and needs."
And that perfectly describes my job as a broker.
And, I HAVE told people to sit back, but that is hard for them when they have a pressing current need.
I believe that the OP did not mean it as such, but the topic is a great straight line for kneejerk trolling. We see it throughout the thread.
There are two sides to the coin, and we are discussing a substantial investment.
What specific words of wisdom would YOU, IF you were a broker, offer to people now? Today?
What would be YOUR specific input coming from your personal integrity, based on your current analysis of trends?
How would you interpret charts and graphs and advise people when you discuss their wants and needs?
Would you tell people "Don't buy today, (or this week, month, quarter, year)" because they will do much better by deferring their purchase to a specific future time?
Would you ignore that they are in a two bedroom flat, with a three year old and twins on the way, a lease that ends in March with their rent going up 20% next year, because they may be buying into a bubble, so they should wait?
An experienced broker works with people in all stages of life, and with exceedingly diverse personal motivations.
What exactly should a broker do that works in all circumstances, and serves the client?
Last edited by MikeJaquish; 12-05-2016 at 05:22 AM..
I've been looking at online real estate in one location for several years.
Without doing any hard core spreadsheets or anything I've been getting the
uneasy feeling that real estate might be heading toward the high end of a bubble.
Then today I got an email shared to me of a market report from Zillow that
seems to confirm it.
Now the last time I owned a house I bought and sold within a few years due to
family issues. So I was looking in 2005 and told my realtor, you know this just
doesn't seem sustainable. Oh No its all fine. Well then look at what happened.
Do feel that realtors either can't or won't see bubbles that can't be sustaned?
They are human and many humans will convince themselves
that nothing bad is coming in all sorts of scenarios.
Or won't talk about them? Because, well, it would hurt sales.
I'm not saying there is a bubble in your area, but IF there is, a realtor would be the LAST person to tell you. Their JOB is to get you to buy a house!!!!
I'm not saying there is a bubble in your area, but IF there is, a realtor would be the LAST person to tell you. Their JOB is to get you to buy a house!!!!
Of course you would say that, you're a realtor! Some will be honest, some not so, just like every other profession out there.
Answer the questions I have asked twice, and reveal your own integrity.
Of course you can decline. Some posters will be honest and intelligent. Some will not.
Of course you would say that, you're a realtor! Some will be honest, some not so, just like every other profession out there.
if we represent the seller, it's our job to get the house sold, not to get an individual to buy it.
there is a certain intrigue to the increases in naive online buyers. For decades, we've talked about how important it is to have happy clients, and to nurture a relationship with them whereby they not only return to us, but save marketing dollars by recommending us to their friends.
But now, with Zillow, you can spend $30K++ a year, earn $100K from folks who are ignorant but only know what the internet shows them - that YOU'RE a top 4 Realtor, right there in the column, with stars and whatnot to prove it! And then both agent and client forget each other because honestly, the client didn't know you 60 days before anyway. And when they move 7-10 years from now, they'll just go back to the internet. If a Zillow user is going to have friends who are also Zillow users - where's the reason to take care of anybody past the closing date?
if we represent the seller, it's our job to get the house sold, not to get an individual to buy it.
there is a certain intrigue to the increases in naive online buyers. For decades, we've talked about how important it is to have happy clients, and to nurture a relationship with them whereby they not only return to us, but save marketing dollars by recommending us to their friends.
But now, with Zillow, you can spend $30K++ a year, earn $100K from folks who are ignorant but only know what the internet shows them - that YOU'RE a top 4 Realtor, right there in the column, with stars and whatnot to prove it! And then both agent and client forget each other because honestly, the client didn't know you 60 days before anyway. And when they move 7-10 years from now, they'll just go back to the internet. If a Zillow user is going to have friends who are also Zillow users - where's the reason to take care of anybody past the closing date?
Honestly, from what I've seen, to a large extent it doesn't even matter what the agent says. If a buyer wants to buy, the vast majority are going to do it no matter what their agent says.
Case in point: My parents are both real estate agents. My mom is a designated broker and my dad is a builder. They have developed a couple subdivisions. They also manage a bunch of rentals. So they have their fingers on the pulse of all things real estate in our area. In 2006, before the crash, they knew that there was a developer in town who doubled lot prices literally overnight. They knew that there were classes being taught in California about how to sell your 1 home there, and buy 5 or 6 rentals here in Boise, drive up the prices, and then sell all of them at a huge profit. They knew that the market was being driven up by investors, not owner occupants.
As a result, they actually DID see the peak coming. About 2 months before the crash, they stopped building any new homes (we only had 3 unsold under construction when the crash happened, which we just kept as rentals). Other builders kept building full force, and had to file bankruptcy when the market crashed. Mom and dad started advising all their clients that prices were really high right now, and they didn't feel it was sustainable, and maybe wasn't the best time to buy.
You know what response they got? "You just have empty rentals you want to push us into" (we were at like 99% occupancy, so that wasn't true) "If you won't write up this offer, I'll go to another agent who will." Over and over they heard various iterations of this statement. A few clients listened, and mom and dad will be getting repeat business and referrals for life from those clients as thank you for being honest. THAT is why it is in an agents best interest to advise their clients the best they can. It isn't all about TODAY'S business, it is about gaining lifetime clients.
To answer the OP question/topic: NO! Even when confronted with facts (specific to an area or region) that support the argument/problem, in the midst of bubble or sharp decline, the answer is denial. It is always "time to buy."
for the record, I spend nothing on Zillow or any online lead-generation service. I just see the effects nearly every single day.
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