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Each area will be different, I’m only looking in lake county Florida at 3+2 houses with garages with kerb appeal that don’t need any major updates, purely to rent out, I watched the prices rocket over the last 3 years, from my research over the last couple of weeks things have stopped going up and are actually dropping in price now and still not selling.
Real estate always comes down to location
Saw article last night that showed 10 towns where people making 60K a year could buy a home
4 were in TX
1 was Dallas
And I live in DFW area and have home in Sarasota FL area
I think lot of people in Dallas area would say that a house you can buy if you are making 60K has dropped in quality over the past 3-6-10 yrs because of all the people moving into Dallas and Houston and San Antonio since the recession in 08-09... You can't get the house you once could earning that 60K and likely it is farther out making commute to work difficult
Many businesses have relocated to Dallas area since 08
And housing in DFW didn't really crater like Phoenix or Las Vegas
While the market has slowed in some ways that has come because of variety of reasons---not just one
I note that my area of FL is slowing
Home prices are up but rate of selling is not as quick as it was
Rents are expensive here--resort area w/lot of service jobs and then higher level professional jobs like doctors bankers, investment advisors--the richer ones don't rent obviously--so getting high dollar for expensive rehabs can be tricky...
I think the Spanish economy is closer to pain/recession maybe than the US from what I understand...
=but have niece who lives in Austin who recently bought property in Spain--they love to vacation there and she minored in Spanish in college...very comfortable with the language...
I’m curious...you said you jumped in 2 years ago but 2 years ago, as you can see from the graph, Lake County had already been going through a long period of price increases. I’ve seen people on C-D warning of bubbles for the past 2-3 years (they were wrong of course but you can understand why they would feel worried) and I completely see why you are concerned now.
So, what is it about now that has you convinced that there will be a bubble burst? I’m not talking about a cycle...those are normal. I’m talking about an irrational exuberance that leads to a precipitous drop in market value. I’m not saying you are wrong...I’m not in the prediction business...just curious why now and not back then?
I’m curious...you said you jumped in 2 years ago but 2 years ago, as you can see from the graph, Lake County had already been going through a long period of price increases. I’ve seen people on C-D warning of bubbles for the past 2-3 years (they were wrong of course but you can understand why they would feel worried) and I completely see why you are concerned now.
So, what is it about now that has you convinced that there will be a bubble burst? I’m not talking about a cycle...those are normal. I’m talking about an irrational exuberance that leads to a precipitous drop in market value. I’m not saying you are wrong...I’m not in the prediction business...just curious why now and not back then?
I wanted to buy for myself not investment, maybe 3 years ago I could have bought my pick of 3 bed 2 bath 2 car garages along both coasts of Florida within reason for around $100,000, by the time I decided to buy things had changed and jumped to over $150,000 if I was investing I would have stopped but I wasn't I was buying for myself so the price was irrelevant, I had to buy blind in an an area I hadn't been to much and didnt see the house before buying, like I have said it all worked out well and I like the area and have since bought a larger house to keep and use more often.
The Spanish economy is ticking over and still selling, I´m a realtor here and know this market the most.
In the US with data transparency its easier to follow the market though which is what I´m doing with Zillow, google etc and I am seeing houses drop in price and not sell and I don´t believe this is a normal winter drop due to the amount of time some decent houses are now just sitting now on the market.
Throw in the fast passed growth over the last couple of years, the current trade wars, Trump, interest rate hikes and talk of recession around the globe a picture starts to emerge, it has for me at least and this is why I asked here if anyone else was of the same opinion.
People have short memories, I’ve experienced 3 recessions now and each time they said it wouldn’t happen again.
People believe property will continue to rise, it never does, it goes up and it comes down again, call it bubble, cycle or boom it’s all the same.
People panic and jump in, just like a ponzi scheme, leaving the winners the ones who got in first and the losers the last to join.
We are now at or approaching the end / top of the current cycle, people have overstretched themselves and interest rates are rising, the jobs market will slow and property prices will fall like they always do.
A Bubble implies that the value of an asset greatly exceeded its intrinsic value. Just because the market has slowed doesn't imply a bubble. Even if it stagnates, not much of a bubble.
Its more like supply is catching up to demand, and demand is softening as the curves even out. And the demand is different this time, its either from home buyers or people that are "real" investors, meaning they intend to flip a house or rent it; no one is buying on pure speculation of appreciation.
People have short memories, I’ve experienced 3 recessions now and each time they said it wouldn’t happen again.
People believe property will continue to rise, it never does, it goes up and it comes down again, call it bubble, cycle or boom it’s all the same.
People panic and jump in, just like a ponzi scheme, leaving the winners the ones who got in first and the losers the last to join.
We are now at or approaching the end / top of the current cycle, people have overstretched themselves and interest rates are rising, the jobs market will slow and property prices will fall like they always do.
Just because the economy slows down and/or we go into recession does not automatically mean property values will plummet or even go down at all. 2008 was not a 'normal' recession.
Property values have and most likely will continue to rise forever. There may be short term set backs, but long term they have and will continue to rise. Probably forever.
"People panic and jump in".....real estate is a lot different that stocks.
People are "overstreched" right now??? Based on what? Do you think people are as "overstretched" as they were in 2008?
What interest rates are rising? Do you think interest rates are high now? Or do you think they are going to be high in the near future?
I wanted to buy for myself not investment, maybe 3 years ago I could have bought my pick of 3 bed 2 bath 2 car garages along both coasts of Florida within reason for around $100,000, by the time I decided to buy things had changed and jumped to over $150,000 if I was investing I would have stopped but I wasn't I was buying for myself so the price was irrelevant, I had to buy blind in an an area I hadn't been to much and didnt see the house before buying, like I have said it all worked out well and I like the area and have since bought a larger house to keep and use more often.
The Spanish economy is ticking over and still selling, I´m a realtor here and know this market the most.
In the US with data transparency its easier to follow the market though which is what I´m doing with Zillow, google etc and I am seeing houses drop in price and not sell and I don´t believe this is a normal winter drop due to the amount of time some decent houses are now just sitting now on the market.
Throw in the fast passed growth over the last couple of years, the current trade wars, Trump, interest rate hikes and talk of recession around the globe a picture starts to emerge, it has for me at least and this is why I asked here if anyone else was of the same opinion.
So you buy properties sight unseen and you are warning other posters to "be careful"? Add in that your expertise is in Spain?
Also sounds like you follow Florida. Do you think Florida is indicative of the entire US market?
We are now at or approaching the end / top of the current cycle, people have overstretched themselves and interest rates are rising, the jobs market will slow and property prices will fall like they always do.
The problem with your theory at this current time is property prices are just now recovering from the recession in most places. In many places, property values are still on the low side and average home prices have not increased. There isn't an inflated market in the majority of the country for there to be much if any of a price drop.
Its a neutral market but that is so different from a sellers market that it feels like the "bubble" burst. Rates have come back down from the panic days of the fall so you'll see more buyers come in soon if they stay that way.
Well, that's sort of true but I would remove the word "really". I've been watching real estate for a few decades now, and every time I think prices are going to plummet, the reality is they go down a bit, but that's all.
Many people simply can't afford to sell a house for less than they bought it for. As a result, even if they need to move, people like this will choose to hold onto a property, and often turn it into a rental instead of trying to sell. The supply of homes for sale becomes tight, which in turn also controls the prices from crashing.
Which is not to say that you can't find a deal if you are very patient. Some houses end up with really low prices, due to an owner being in an emergency situation and needing to sell no matter what price they can get. But those are fairly rare, most people lower the price to a certain point, and then after that they'll choose to wait it out.
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