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Nobody has said anything like this on the thread. What exactly is your point?
Oh yes, they most certainly have, with all of these "reports" and analysis of EVERYTHING under the sun, this is, simply put, a complete example of how you all sound. It would benefit all who have done nothing but "butcher" all the "doom and gloom news" to go back and read everything you all keep pointing out. If you all don't realize it, jimj's post is literally how many of you make it seem it's going to be. Although this is a somewhat "exagerated" discription of the "picture" many of you paint, some, such as me, have said, things like, "oh no, it's the end of the world" and others have commented about "lining up like the communitst" for our toliet paper rolls", etc. jimj is right on target- "run for the hills", all you nae sayers, complete chaos is coming, according to the opinios many of you have given. jimj, you put it PERFECTLY!!! These people are completely disillusional, aren't they? Some of us have tried to explain, with various posts, that it's a more complicated picture than what they literally speak of and quote articles from. Much of our nation, while suffering a little down turn, is still prospering and doing quite well; real estate included! Not all areas are falling apart, economically speaking, like California is. And California has ALWAYS had it's problems- bigger than real estate. There are, however, still parts of CA that are doing just fine as well. And their houseing, however down in value it may be, is still above the national average and above most states in this nation.
Although this is a somewhat "exagerated" discription of the "picture" many of you paint, some, such as me, have said, things like, "oh no, it's the end of the world"
I don't know who you are talking about. I don't care what some nut balls are talking about else where. Nobody on this thread has said anything remotely similar to what jimj stated. Claiming that real estate is going to drop in price for many years is not after all claiming the world is going to end etc. Nor is talking about a severe recession/depression.
But I understand people don't want to think things are going to bad. Why would you? Its not a pleasant thought. But for us interested in economics the current situation is rather interesting. Under some theories we are likely heading for a depression (e.g., Austrian school) where as others we are likely heading for a bad recession but should be able to avoid depression if the right actions are taken. The general public (including you) have no idea how bad things are right now, and really that is for the better. A mass panic would just make things worse. Anyhow, there are no debating the facts. We are in very historic times right now and there are many serious problems. This doesn't mean our economy is going to collapse, with the right measures we will pull out okay. Things may be different in the end, but we will be okay. But you can't fight a problem if you ignore its existence.
I don't know who you are talking about. I don't care what some nut balls are talking about else where. Nobody on this thread has said anything remotely similar to what jimj stated. Claiming that real estate is going to drop in price for many years is not after all claiming the world is going to end etc. Nor is talking about a severe recession/depression.
But I understand people don't want to think things are going to bad. Why would you? Its not a pleasant thought. But for us interested in economics the current situation is rather interesting. Under some theories we are likely heading for a depression (e.g., Austrian school) where as others we are likely heading for a bad recession but should be able to avoid depression if the right actions are taken. The general public (including you) have no idea how bad things are right now, and really that is for the better. A mass panic would just make things worse. Anyhow, there are no debating the facts. We are in very historic times right now and there are many serious problems. This doesn't mean our economy is going to collapse, with the right measures we will pull out okay. Things may be different in the end, but we will be okay. But you can't fight a problem if you ignore its existence.
No one, including optimists like myself and posters like jimj and crazyma(thanks for the compliment on my reply) or even humboldt, chuck22, or ChettEverett, think the "facts" you continue to spew are near what will happen, as well as the fact that you grossly exagerate EVERY negetive coverage you can get your hands on. You talk about gas prices, grocery prices, and the biggest "hot topic", real estate. I don't think you are probably old enough to remember what many of us refer to as "Reganomics" but how about you look up the price of a gallon of gas or a gallon of milk in 1981/82. I can assure you, the income ratios far outway our high prices today than they did back then. Never mind the rise and fall of the stock market in the last 20 years. Believe me, my young friend, these times are no different and probably less severe than their predicessors. You seem intellegent, enough to know that it is completely unrealistic to think that the general public, including ourselves, don't know what is going on. If we have no idea how bad it is, what "crystal ball" did you come across that showed you how bad it is? We would all truly like to know.
I'm telling you, life as we know, has changed very little. Gas is pricey but everyone is still driving their SUV's (yes, admittedly, us too), people are still "dining" out, shopping at Jewel and Dominicks (major grocery chains in Chicago land), and planning and taking summer vacations. Perhaps the Chicago suburbs are just completely on a different plane, when it comes to the "doom and gloom" but honestly, this is how it is. And as I have stated before, real estate is holding its own as well. Additionally, steady employment with annual, cost of living raises, are still happening, some, many, with hefty bonuses to boot. While I, like many, are completely realistic about knowing what is going on, and are certainly not throwing "caution to the wind", we also are educated enough, old enough, to realize that what goes down, will come up, and likely go down again. It's the sway of our economy, historically speaking! To say we are "in very historic times" is a huge exageration, and I'm sure our grandchildren will not be reading about 2006-? in their history books as another "great depression".
You talk about gas prices, grocery prices, and the biggest "hot topic", real estate.
Perhaps you are thinking of someone else? I haven't talked much about gas and I never mentioned grocery prices.
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Believe me, my young friend, these times are no different and probably less severe than their predicessors.
I never claimed this is going to be more severe then previous economic crisis. But this isn't saying much, the US has a rich history of near economic melt-downs. Most notably the depression, but there are others.
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To say we are "in very historic times" is a huge exageration
No its not. The financial instruments that are now collapsing are rather new and how one deals with their collapse is not known. That is historic. The FED has already taken some historic actions to fight deflation. Interestingly, a lot of the actions are straight out of Bernanke's "how to avoid a depression handbook". If you didn't know Ben Bernanke is a scholar on the great depression and has many ideas on how such could have been prevented.
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I'm telling you, life as we know, has changed very little.
So what? All indicators show the economy is slowing and consumers are not out buying things like they were 1-2 years ago. This is fact.
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If we have no idea how bad it is, what "crystal ball" did you come across that showed you how bad it is? We would all truly like to know.
Its not about a crystal ball its about knowledge. I know far more about economics than the general public. And rightfully so, I spend much more time reading/thinking about it than the general public. People are largely in the dark about what is going on simply because they aren't actively researching/reading about it.
Anyhow, I don't even know why I'm responding. You seem to be highly confused about economic matters and bring up things that I haven't even said.
Perhaps you are thinking of someone else? I haven't talked much about gas and I never mentioned grocery prices.
I never claimed this is going to be more severe then previous economic crisis. But this isn't saying much, the US has a rich history of near economic melt-downs. Most notably the depression, but there are others.
No its not. The financial instruments that are now collapsing are rather new and how one deals with their collapse is not known. That is historic. The FED has already taken some historic actions to fight deflation. Interestingly, a lot of the actions are straight out of Bernanke's "how to avoid a depression handbook". If you didn't know Ben Bernanke is a scholar on the great depression and has many ideas on how such could have been prevented.
So what? All indicators show the economy is slowing and consumers are not out buying things like they were 1-2 years ago. This is fact.
Its not about a crystal ball its about knowledge. I know far more about economics than the general public. And rightfully so, I spend much more time reading/thinking about it than the general public. People are largely in the dark about what is going on simply because they aren't actively researching/reading about it.
Anyhow, I don't even know why I'm responding. You seem to be highly confused about economic matters and bring up things that I haven't even said.
No, it is you that are confused. This is a very normal part of the RE Correction.
I have no idea what "this" refers to here, but the mortgage related investment instruments that are having problems didn't exist as they do today in previous "RE corrections". Additionally, the problems we are seeing today extend far beyond real estate. In fact the decline in real estate is just an effect of the more general economic problems. Contrary to popular belief this down turn isn't being caused by declining home prices instead declining home prices is an effect of more general market conditions.
I may not agree with the extent of Humanoid's downturn predictions but they clearly are intelligent and know a lot about the markets and real estate.
My biggest disagreement is more regarding being underestimated. I may not be buying properties in cash but have the 20-25 down to get the best financing terms (my next building will be owner-occupied) and only do 30 year fixed. If rates go down significantly I can always refinance later.
I also believe FMV knows a lot too, albeit with a more optimisitc attitude regarding where prices are headed in Chicago.
As best as I can tell my predictions fall more in line with chuck or chet, both of which appear to be highly educated. I aspire to be chet in a few years.
Perhaps they do, unfortunately they are so incoherent I have no idea what they are trying to say half the time. It may help also if they responded to the things I've actually stated.
Regardless, talking about your hopes and dreams is all nice. But you never answered a question. How are prices going to recover in real terms? Its actually a little funny, its a good example of "price anchoring". But the general public tends to think that the current prices are just temporarily low instead of thinking that the prices over the last 6 years were just temporarily high. If you are going to have a recovery in real terms you will need to argue for the former option. I'm really interested in the basis of such a view!!!
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As best as I can tell my predictions fall more in line with chuck or chet, both of which appear to be highly educated.
Of course they do, and we can pretend that has nothing to do with the fact that all of you are invested in a similar outcome. I mean it is a bit ironic that everyone that is optimistic about real estate tends be invested in it.
Humanoid, what I think you're missing in this whole numbers crunching game is human emotion. Do I belelive we're in headed for some rough waters? Yes but we've been there before (real estate) in the 80's. The thing is if people keep getting hit over the head with the absolute worst case doom and gloom projections though not a reality YET they will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Unfortunately I believe there are many who hope and would dance with glee if they worst case happened.
If people believe that there's some rough times coming but it will be short lived, not the end of times as we know it and certainly not a depression which conjers up pictures of the great depression in peoples minds (which was ugly but a good show of our will to survive as a nation) then emotions remain high, people keep working hard instead of giving up and we as a nation work together and power through it. We've done it before and we can do it again.
That's the problem with the current information age, too much information for the average person to process without becoming depressed and giving up. Peoples emotional state (will to succeed) has been what's kept this nation great and growing, belief that tomorrow will be better and that their dream is just on the other side of that next hill they have to climb but all this worst case stuff and "the governments out to get us" stuff makes the hills higher and for many just not worth it.
Bottom line, you MAY be right, we COULD be going into dark uncharted times but the way most of the warnings (the sane ones at least) are being presented to people are starting to turn them off or scaring the hell out of them just like the Y2K thing did. Neither one is a good thing or productive for that matter.
How about some rational solutions to go along with the predictions or what people can do to either avoid them or survive it?
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humanoid knows alot
