Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm not sure why you think Illinois isn't having much trouble. I know you're in a Chicago suburb so ... I checked my foreclosure database for the city of Chicago, just as an example.
There's 9,400 bank owned homes with a total of 16,000 mortgages in default in Chicago alone. That's probably not as bad as California but it doesn't look like that market is totally immune from this either.
Besides ... with this severe recession ... who's going to be able to pay $500-600K for a house, even if they want to? Most of the appraisers have gotten very conservative with the valuations and there's still an ongoing credit crunch.
Which pretty much only leaves the buyers with cash and there obviously aren't too many of those either.
So in essense, I'm not thinking fence sitters are waiting for 80% drops, but certainly when put in this perspective, even another 20-25% drop is crazy to "fence sit for". And just take the time to work the numbers in ANY pricerange and you'll come out with the same "unrealistic" hopeful devaluation of real estate in our country. When one generizes figures as they have on this forum, not taking specific examples like these seriously, it makes no sense.
Do you have any other stats besides your own home/neighborhood to back up your statements ?
I'm not sure why you think Illinois isn't having much trouble. I know you're in a Chicago suburb so ... I checked my foreclosure database for the city of Chicago, just as an example.
There's 9,400 bank owned homes with a total of 16,000 mortgages in default in Chicago alone. That's probably not as bad as California but it doesn't look like that market is totally immune from this either.
Besides ... with this severe recession ... who's going to be able to pay $500-600K for a house, even if they want to? Most of the appraisers have gotten very conservative with the valuations and there's still an ongoing credit crunch.
Which pretty much only leaves the buyers with cash and there obviously aren't too many of those either.
You consider that a lot? Chicago population (city proper) is 2,900,000 with 1,100,000 households. 16,000 of those comes to about 1.5% of the total households, and this is nothing, in my opinion as there have been many every year, even in a sellers market. And this is the CITY of Chicago- not the suburbs. You're right, appraisers have gotten tight with their valuations and they are appraising them for what I disclosed above, not the low-ball amounts an occasional dreamer tries to get them for.
Do you have any other stats besides your own home/neighborhood to back up your statements ?
DuPage co., Kane co., Lake co., McHenry co., Kendall co., Will co., and a small part of Cook co.(most of Cook is the city of chicago proper), - all suburb counties of Chicago- look up their sales figures on your own spare time. I don't have it (the time). My example is from DuPage County. Thanks.
The thing that has many holding back;especaily thiose that are shoping for a permanent home is that many while making their payments are in homes that they can't afford to keepup the maintenance cost. This can change a neighborhood drastically in a short number of years. Looking at the possibity that unemployment is likely to dreop in many areas in the coming year alot more than we have seen yet;it will get worse.Too many neighborhoods looking like a abandoned strip mall is common in many areas.Tyhen alot of homes beiong bought as investmant rent property will make many heighborhoods even less valued.
You're right, appraisers have gotten tight with their valuations and they are appraising them for what I disclosed above, not the low-ball amounts an occasional dreamer tries to get them for.
That's not what I said ... appraisers are getting conservative ... i.e. erring on the side of caution and valuing properties on the low side because prices continue to fall.
If somehow the market isn't falling, as you say, where are the signs of all of this pent up demand that would have to be there to turn it around? Any data? Or are you going to say you don't have the time?
The areas with more than 8 months of inventory are either on the far outskirts or the expensive parts of town where the sellers are not hard-pressed to sell. Most of town is close to being in a neutral market (6 months of inventory). Building has come to a screeching halt. Pretty much only the developments started in '05 or earlier are still going.
I, like FMV, own a place in DuPage County, Itasca. Itasca is similiar to Wheaton, though smaller. Values for condos, townhomesn and single familiy homes continue to drop and I see them continuing to drop for at least the next year.
I was planning on buying another place (and keeping my other 2) in 2009 but now it is looking more like 2010 unless the right foreclosure comes up.
For hard numbers, I just had an appraisal done 1 month ago in Des Plaines, a northwest Chicago suburb in Cook County. Physicians office appraised for 650K in 2003. In Sept 2008 the same physician office appraised for 625K. Appraisals, whether residential or commercial, have gotten very conservative.
DuPage co., Kane co., Lake co., McHenry co., Kendall co., Will co., and a small part of Cook co.(most of Cook is the city of chicago proper), - all suburb counties of Chicago- look up their sales figures on your own spare time. I don't have it (the time). My example is from DuPage County. Thanks.
When I did look up the sales figures, they were down 30% versus a year ago. That doesn't indicate a strong market to me. If you don't know what the statistics are, why did you claim they showed something opposite to what they really are?
In the Chicagoland Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA) home sales (which include single-family and condominiums) totaled 6,804, down 30.1 percent from 9,733 home sales in August 2007. The Chicagoland PMSA, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, includes Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties.
The median home sale price for the Chicagoland PMSA was $251,250 in August 2008, down 5.7 percent from $266,500 in August 2007.
That's not what I said ... appraisers are getting conservative ... i.e. erring on the side of caution and valuing properties on the low side because prices continue to fall.
If somehow the market isn't falling, as you say, where are the signs of all of this pent up demand that would have to be there to turn it around? Any data? Or are you going to say you don't have the time?
Where have I ever said there is "pent up demand"? In fact, I have stated, countless times, that inventory is still high. What I did say, however, is that regardless of inventory time, prices are NOT going down, and if are, by less than 1 % every 3 months or so (a few 1,000 dollars off) and when something does sell, it's within current prices as listed. Again, look at sales history and time or not, if you're interested in reading the numbers, look them up on your own time. As for the appraisal comment, sorry if I misinterpreted yours. I'm only telling you appraisers are not "valuing properties" on the low side around here but rather market value and at what lists and agreed upon offers are for. If they weren't, deals would fall through and homes sales prices would not be where they are. They are, however, getting very, very tight with their lending criteria and requiring 20% down. This is another reason inventory is still high- not as many qualified byuers. But again, this does not mean prices are falling. As many have pointed out, many do not have to sell or are in "diar straights" if they don't. So prices are still holding- call it a war of the wills, if you will. Many in this nation are not about to "give their homes away" as many keep waiting and insisting for. Many are riding the storm.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Chicago market is relatively weak
