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Must of searched high and low to find a slanted article to support your view. And it comes from a site called moremortgagemeltdown.com.... LOL..... Could not find it on thiswholecountryisgoingdownthedrain.com? LOL. Anyone that thinks the whole nation will simultaneously hit the bottom at the same time is smoking some good stuff. Housing is local, many areas have hit bottom long ago.
As JohnG72 stated, perhaps you can provide an equally FACT filled and comprehensive overview to support your opinion (which seems to be that the situation really isn't so bad and is just going to get better and better for RE in the short term).
Believe me, I'd love to see property values appreciating but I'm not naive enough to think that's happening any time soon - and I don't care to wear rose-tinted spectacles Or grasp on every scrap of baseless fluff spouted by vested interests like the NAR.
Where do the directors and economists of NAR live actually? Must be lala land or in a bubble.
It's a trade association representing the interests of their membership, brokers ( not agents). Do you expect them to say it sucks to be a seller, right now"?
Good ole Greenspan, a long time well respected economist and chairman of the FRB, called the bubble "froth" at the peak.
Like I said, RE is local so I know from what is going on locally around me in so. CA. Prices here have bottomed in Jan and have been going up ever since. There are less houses going on the market and when they do, they get multiple offers on the first day and are sold right away. This of course is mostly the distressed houses which are the best bargains right now. Last report shows only 2.5 mon. supply of homes under $500k.
You want DATA, look at pending home sales the last three months.
You want home prices to keep falling? Homes prices have already come back from the bubble spike and are inline now with normal historic price appreciation (actually below).
Home prices in California are not going up, the higher-end homes are now being sold, which is distorting prices up. The same houses are not selling for more now, just better homes being sold than all the starter homes that had been selling, which is driving up prices.
Wait for the Case-Shiller numbers to come out and this will prove out. I agree that home prices in California may have come closer to bottoming than other markets, but I see this as a false bottom as you guys have tons of Alt A resets coming that other markets do not. I would not be buying a home in California for the next couple of years unless I found the perfect foreclosure.
Florida I believe will be a better option in a year or two, as they do not have as many Alt As to reset. Prices have come down dramatically in areas like Miami and Phoenix and Las Vegas, but not as much Alt A loans to reset, so I don't see the double bottom that will be seen in California markets.
And normal historic appreciation, prices always overcorrect to the downside after going up. Nothing ever just hits the normal line. California house prices are not over their decline just yet, though they are certainly much closer to bottom than the 2005/2006 top.
Like I said, RE is local so I know from what is going on locally around me in so. CA. Prices here have bottomed in Jan and have been going up ever since. There are less houses going on the market and when they do, they get multiple offers on the first day and are sold right away. This of course is mostly the distressed houses which are the best bargains right now. Last report shows only 2.5 mon. supply of homes under $500k.
You want DATA, look at pending home sales the last three months.
You want home prices to keep falling? Homes prices have already come back from the bubble spike and are inline now with normal historic price appreciation (actually below).
When taking into account the bigger picture and looking AHEAD I fail to see any indications that the property market ANYWHERE has "bottomed".
There are always spikes in any trend. This does not mean that the overall trend has changed direction.
There are too many other factors that have still not yet fully come into play:
Mortgage Resets
Pent-up supply of foreclosures that have still not yet hit the market due to the moratorium
Increasing mortgage delinquency rates
Unemployment which is still rising despite monthly fluctuations
Rising interest rates
What do you think will happen to the value of lower end homes when the values of mid to upper end homes start dropping like stones?
Read pages 110-112 (which relate specifically to CA):
One more thing Glenn.....you ignore a very important fact.
In criminal cases in court, there is a thing known as Brady evidence. This is evidence that the prosecutors HAVE to provide to defense attorneys because the evidence is such that it can cast a totally different light on the alleged criminal activity. It's an affirmative duty....no one has to ask for the information and the courts don't have to order. Thats how important it is.
In this instance, you completely ignore a fact that overwhelmingly casts your information in a different light. That fact is an artificial restriction on the number of houses on the market due to a several month moratorium on foreclosures.
If you factor that in, along with seasonal price fluctuation, you realize that prices on individual housing is at most experiencing a temporary upswing. Failure to address the effect of the moratorium is such a big factor that it essentially ammounts to a lie of omission.
The real estate marketing is improving. Several homes in my development are under contract or have sold. Unfortunately, the sale price has gone down quite a bit. It all depends when you purchased your home. Some are still in the black and some are deeply in the red. It is still the best investment for the average Joanne.
The real estate marketing is improving. Several homes in my development are under contract or have sold. Unfortunately, the sale price has gone down quite a bit. It all depends when you purchased your home. Some are still in the black and some are deeply in the red. It is still the best investment for the average Joanne.
Did you even read one bit of London Girl's post?
Factual information indicates that(short of mass federal government forgiveness of mortgages) there will be a massive oversupply of housing on the market in the next 3 years.
Home prices in California are not going up, the higher-end homes are now being sold, which is distorting prices up. The same houses are not selling for more now, just better homes being sold than all the starter homes that had been selling, which is driving up prices.
Yep, agreed. Here's a few quotes from DataQuick's latest CA news releases :
Quote:
The median price paid for a home last month was $230,000, up 4.1 percent from $221,000 in April, and down 32.2 percent from $339,000 for May a year ago. Last month's slight uptick in median is the result of a relative increase in sales of more expensive homes.
La Jolla, CA---Southern California home sales rose for the 11th consecutive month in May as sales of $500,000-plus homes started to come back. The median price paid increased slightly from the prior month for the first time since July 2007, the result of a shift in market activity where sales of deeply discounted foreclosures waned and mid- to high-end purchases rose, a real estate information service reported.
Incidentally I am a property owner myself both here and in the UK so no, I don't WANT home values to keep falling.
However, as I stated before, I'm not so naive as to think that things will get any better in the short term.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best
Which is why 'month to month" data is completely useless. But the slick talking Real Estate agents will use it to create urgency. And the Median price is a bunch of horse**** as well because the higher end home sales will push that up disproportionately.
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Or grasp on every scrap of baseless fluff spouted by vested interests like the NAR.
Glenn, check prices of same houses
