Hope for San Antonio real estate! (Nevada, Riverside: sales, insurance, mortgage)

[Chris Besinger]

Hello everyone! I just wanted to let everyone know that PMI Mortgage Company has just released their home sales avg. price and risk factor (most important) numbers.

The top 50 major metros rated by their risk of a decline in the next two years , by Marilyn Lewis

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s new U.S. Market Risk Index tries to assess the future direction of markets across the U.S. by looking at recent price volatility, affordability (including per-capita income, appreciation and mortgage rates) and employment, among other factors.


On average, there's a 34.6% chance that home prices will drop in the nation's top 50 markets in the next couple years, with many of the riskiest markets falling in areas that saw steep run-ups in prices in recent years, followed by decreased affordability and drops in the rate of appreciation.

Texas housing remains strong, with risk scores below 140, which means that there's less than a 14% chance that our markets will decline over the next two years, vs. California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada metros that predict at least a 50% or more chance that their housing prices will decline over the next two years. This may help your buyers understand that Texas is the place to buy.


NOTES: *For the first quarter 2007; **Scores show risk of home values falling in 2009 in all U.S. metropolitan statistical areas and divisions. Risk index scores are whole numbers. By moving the decimal one point to the left, they are expressed as the % chance of dropping prices. For example, Riverside has a risk score of 652 --- a 65.2% chance home values will fall in two years. Also shown: appreciation in first quarters of 2006 and 2007. Source: PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.


Thought you all migh be interested...

[Chris Besinger]

Originally Posted by Chris Besinger

Hello everyone! I just wanted to let everyone know that PMI Mortgage Company has just released their home sales avg. price and risk factor (most important) numbers.

The top 50 major metros rated by their risk of a decline in the next two years , by Marilyn Lewis

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.'s new U.S. Market Risk Index tries to assess the future direction of markets across the U.S. by looking at recent price volatility, affordability (including per-capita income, appreciation and mortgage rates) and employment, among other factors.


On average, there's a 34.6% chance that home prices will drop in the nation's top 50 markets in the next couple years, with many of the riskiest markets falling in areas that saw steep run-ups in prices in recent years, followed by decreased affordability and drops in the rate of appreciation.

Texas housing remains strong, with risk scores below 140, which means that there's less than a 14% chance that our markets will decline over the next two years, vs. California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada metros that predict at least a 50% or more chance that their housing prices will decline over the next two years. This may help your buyers understand that Texas is the place to buy.


NOTES: *For the first quarter 2007; **Scores show risk of home values falling in 2009 in all U.S. metropolitan statistical areas and divisions. Risk index scores are whole numbers. By moving the decimal one point to the left, they are expressed as the % chance of dropping prices. For example, Riverside has a risk score of 652 --- a 65.2% chance home values will fall in two years. Also shown: appreciation in first quarters of 2006 and 2007. Source: PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.


Thought you all migh be interested...

I forgot to add that San Antonio is at a 102!!!!

[Paka]

Great to know..thanks for us "non-real estate" types who would like to keep up (and have it explained so we DO understand!)

[bigthirsty]

I think you have to take more info into account that what PMI says considering they say "Our business is about expanding homeownership".

Like the fox guarding the hen house..

Also need to account for mortgage rates:
Mortgage rates rise for first time in a month - Aug. 16, 2007

Also need to account for whether or not people can get loans:
Countrywide taps $11.5B line; tightens loans standards - Aug. 16, 2007

And how the above factors affect the rest of the economy:
Mortgage meltdown is crushing other markets - Aug. 10, 2007

The Fed injected $38 billion dollars into the economy. What did they purchase with that money? Well mortgage backed securities of course.

"The type of mortgage-backed securities the Fed bought are created when bundles of individual mortgages originated by commercial banks are guaranteed by quasi-governmental agencies such as the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) and Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), then split apart and sold to investors. Homeowners pay interest on these mortgages, interest payments flowing through to the final holders of MBS. While the purchases are only temporary — the cash must be returned by Monday — one wonders how long before the Fed grants itself the power to buy MBS permanently. Either way, the Fed's response shows that it is worried about the growing mortgage crises and willing to do anything to buy its way out of it. Unfortunately, by buying up MBS and propping up the market the Fed will only cause more harm than it already has."

The Fed Bought What? - Mises Institute