2013 San Antonio Housing Forecast

[Paka]

Originally Posted by Cramowheat

Just from what I see on the far-westside, I think the news and "forecast" is a bit optimistic, but I'm hopeful. I'm still seeing lots of folks leaving rentals when that was not in the plan- granted, they are renting quickly. We have lots of military renters in our area who have decided it's too risky to try and sell in 3-5 yrs.
kevcrawford, as a realtor, when do you think the shadow inventory will be used up and what about the expiration of the MFDRA?

I have to disagree with the "too risky to sell" question only because Kevin (who I did not know before meeting here a CDF) as sold rental property for us during the depressed market with NO issues!

I listed or last rental property with him last summer (the height of the "low" for the market) and it was listed on Friday morning, and we had our offer on Monday afternoon (after 4 showing that first weekend no less).

I can honestly say after owning and selling mulitple homes, it is more the realtor and the realistic expetations of the buyer/seller for the home in preparing it for show that matters than the market at the time. If it was the "market" that decided that, it would still be showing. LOTS of homes on the market as ours sold, but we prep'ed, got the "right person for the job" and then were VERY successful in our process.

[Cramowheat]

That's awesome, Paka, but unfortunatley, it's not the case for lots of buyers during those booming years. I agree things are turning the corner, but my cousin, who I believe was an '05 buyer is STILL trying to sell a gorgeous home, barely lived in as they are empty nesters and the upstairs has rooms nobody has used. Maybe you had tons of equity, but lots of folks don't after only a few yrs. Hard to get it when prices were dropping.

At the time they purchased, the lending was...shall we say, WAY too easy. Not sure how long you've been around, but the far-west has been hit bad by foreclosures. What started to happen was the foreclosure and shortsales sold and started to show up on comps. This pushes people upsidedown and that's why alot of sellers who have to move just end up renting it out. We have several military families who have done that and I hate to see so many rentals over here. Granted, it's better than sitting empty, but let's face it- renters just don't care as much, usually.

I guess we will see what happens this spring...that's why I was asking Kev about shadows (I hope they are almost gone!). We'd like to move UP in 2014 and I hate to write a check at the table.

[Paka]

Originally Posted by SAnorsk

Thanks for the information, Kevin. It makes me optimistic (perhaps too much so) about the Timberwood Park property we have been trying to sell for over two years now. Hoping 2013 is the year we finally sell it!

Wow...I cann not even imagine trying to sell a property that long....NERVE WRACKING for sure! I pray that 2013 brings you much success!!!

I can tell you that we have used Kevin (whom we did not even KNOW before CDF) for our real estate needs when we decided to divest ourselves from the rental property market, and he sold one of our homes in less than 48 hours (and in 2011 no less)! We have NEVER had a home on the market more than 28 days before selling....so I am not sure what the issue is, but I can attest to the fact the guidance of Kevin's abilities have served us VERY well when we decided we wanted to no longer be landlords.

If your property is not overpriced or with major issues, then your realtor is not doing right by you because a GREAT realtor will come in and say "here is what I would be looking at as a buyer"....and let you KNOW what to do to make the sale quickly.

That was our exact experience with Kevin, and we decided to follow his recommendations to a T (and it all cost us less than $3K), and we sold instantly for the asking price. Was a GREAT investment on our part!

[Cramowheat]

Well, when I'm wrong, I will put it out there...last night we had a get-together at the neighbors. Lots of people from different neighborhoods in the northwest/far-west.
Housing came up...we realized we were mostly buyers from the top or right as the bubble burst.
Good news is two families have sold...now, granted they didn't walk away with much cash, but they are sold. One took six months and one took four, but at least they don't have to become landlords. I thought this was a good sign since winter would traditionally not be a time to see tons of movement. Another guy said his daughter had a contract within a month.

Then...yesterday afternoon I stopped by an open house just to talk to the realtor. She said that SA's market is really looking up due to the Eagle Ford Shale, medical, and others. She showed us comps from the past three months and I'm impressed. She also said that she is seeing more and more buyers who don't want to even look at foreclosures b/c of the shape they are in. I asked her about those of us who want to sell and don't have tons of equity due to the problems in recent years. She told me that our market is still a fantastic bargain compared to many other markets.

Lastly, she said there is a renewed interest over here because alot of the projects that were on "hold" are again being chattered about...she mentioned Potranco/211/Talley (not too familiar about what was going to happen with connecting them?) and a Steven's Ranch subdivision. Another one was connecting WCreek over to the high school and Wiseman...and then she said once Wiseman starts to develop, it will really be nice (again, anyone know what that's about?). Finally, another retail area planned inside ARanch. Hope they get the 151/1604 thing going.