San Antonio Weather Thread (Anthony, Howe: stats, cars, paid)

[ryneone]

Originally Posted by AnthonySA

Alright, I know it is still a little bit early to be looking this far ahead, but I have noticed some trends that will be crucial towards constructing a long-range forecast this summer. This is all preliminary educated guesses and is subject to many "flies in the ointment" and amendments as warranted. Feel free to jump in and tear me a part -- or any other input, of course!

Overall, my gut feeling tells me that this summer will go down as a hot and dry one. I feel this way because the current storm track does not favor frequent storms over our area -- and in fact, nearly all winter and spring long, the storms tracked well off to our north. Areas that were in drought last year are now seeing plenty of rain this year, and conversely the wet areas last year are dry now. This is crucial for guesstimating where the key weather player in the summer, yes...the dreaded "heat" ridge, sets up shop.

There is a direct coorelation to ridge development and warm-dry weather. We have enjoyed a warm, and definitely dry spring in comparison to other areas of the Southern United States. That is, the rain helps keep atmospheric thicknesses lower (the higher the atmospheric thickness.. usually the higher the pressure -- in the summer). There is also a direct coorelation between atmospheric thickness and temperature.. the higher the heights, the warmer the temperature. Such an environment is not ideal for storms to follow.

That means that the ridge will most likely develop over the region that is the warmest and the driest, as there is the most ease. Unfortunately, based on the current Winter and Spring trends, that region is here. My current gut feeling tells me that this summer will be similar to that of 2006, which was indeed a very hot one for San Antonio.

Of course, we still have more than a month to monitor the latest trends and patterns, and we'll have a better idea on where to expect the "heat high" to set up. If we are able to get more rain in May and in June, we may luck out and I will have to of course readjust my forecast.

What are your thoughts on this summer?

Well after the sprus win the title Texas will get another hurricane so hopefully it is a cat one in mid June that give us plenty of rain. Your senerio seems to be the most likely. But if you look at the drought moniter is seems we are in a severe drought and two contiues over are normal.

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by ryneone

Well after the sprus win the title Texas will get another hurricane so hopefully it is a cat one in mid June that give us plenty of rain. Your senerio seems to be the most likely. But if you look at the drought moniter is seems we are in a severe drought and two contiues over are normal.

That's true... every year the Spurs won the NBA Title, Texas was slammed by a hurricane

1999 - Hurricane Bret (Cat 4 near Brownsville)
2003 - Hurricane Claudette (Cat 1/Cat 2 Near Corpus Christi)
2005 - Hurricane Rita (Cat 5 near Port Arthur)
2007 - Hurricane Humberto (Cat 1 near Houston)

Originally Posted by benandgrace

I'm trying to compare SA weather to weather in Austin. There's only an hour's difference between the two cities, so is it safe to assume that Austin isn't any cooler during the hot months than SA?

The weather in Austin and in San Antonio is usually the same with a few temperature fluctuations here and there.

As far as the rainfall differences go, that is natural anywhere in South-Central Texas. Usually most of our convective activity is isolated, so one area ends up getting wet while another area stays dry -- especially during the Spring and Summer months. However on average, Austin sees 33.6"/year, whereas San Antonio gets 30.3".

[ryneone]

Originally Posted by AnthonySA

As far as the rainfall differences go, that is natural anywhere in South-Central Texas. Usually most of our convective activity is isolated, so one area ends up getting wet while another area stays dry -- especially during the Spring and Summer months. However on average, Austin sees 33.6"/year, whereas San Antonio gets 30.3".

I think it is wild how much more rain we are getting know. If i read right San Antonio used to get 27 inches of rain on average. I think they use a 50 year average ending on every tenth year. Example right now we are in the 1950-2000 average time then we will go to 1960-2010 next.

I tried finding where i read this set me straight weather guy.

[AnthonySA]

They are actually 30 year averages... more info available here:
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/support/average/averages.pdf (broken link)

As you can tell, these are rough averages and not just a summation of weather during the past 30 years divided by 30.
They have to have continuity with nearby sites and with previous days.

[AnthonySA]

Can y'all feel the humidity again?

Nearby is the Texas Dryline where the humidity drops like a rock to desert levels. This boundary will move towards our area Thursday and Friday and will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development. The difference between a dryline and a coldfont is obvious... a cold front divides warm air masses from cold air masses and a dryline separates a humid and dry airmass. Cold fronts serve as much more efficient triggers for storms than the dryline.

Therefore, as the dryline approaches our region, there is an outside chance that a storm develops over our area. I agree with the National Weather Service that the odds of you seeing rain and storms are about 20%. However any storm that does develop will go severe fast (and be relatively short-lived too).

CAPE values per model guidance are exceptionally high -- 3000-4000 J/kg -- which means that there is plenty of lift and instability these storms have to feed off of, making isolated pockets of hail a potential threat, we have plenty of moisture in place that these storms will dump buckets of rain, and the shortlived nature of these storms make strong downdrafts/microbursts a possibility.

Again note: the odds of seeing a storm at your house are relatively small, so don't cancel your plans. Get on out there and enjoy the day, but do yourself a favor and keep an eye to the sky!

[rd2007]

No humidity where I am (Security Hill part of Lackland), but it is VERY windy. Feels really good, especially since I had to walk about a mile to get my car from its awful parking spot..

[AnthonySA]

The humidity is there, it's just not the tropical sauna that we're used to. You made me go double check the surface observations and the dewpoints are in the 60s here.. meaning that the dryline is still way out west. It's not that well pronounced just yet.. but that should change with the progression of a trough well off to our north.

[ChrisSA_wxatUIW]

Actually I think Claudette hit as a very weak Cat 3....
Hey any idea what the ENSO Index and/or the SST anomalies in the pacific are right now?? I heard that there might be possibly ANOTHER El Niño developing (althought it will probably be a weak one, if even called a true El Niño).
If this is true, than it's more likely that we have wet conditions rather than dry
ON THE OTHER HAND if we continue in a La Niña pattern then we will stay dry





I just did a huge report/presentation on tropical drought, and it's causes including
upper air circulation, pressure systems, and the effects of the ENSO
so this is like all in my head right now....

[ChrisSA_wxatUIW]

did I mention that my brain is also FRIED right now....

[AnthonySA]

In short, we're pretty close to neutral right now in the Equatorial Pacific actually. A lot of people, including myself called for the death of La Niña recently but she's been able to hold steady, albeit very weak.

I expect that to continue throughout the summer while very progressively weakening to total neutrality. I don't expect an El Niño developing until late this year/early next year.

I'm too afraid to get too technical in this forum since it really isn't a weather forum, but if you wish to do so, you can DM me and we'll find a way to get in contact. But, you can check out the latest SST trends here: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/upload...8029_thumb.jpg