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Old 04-17-2018, 01:52 PM
 
8 posts, read 16,021 times
Reputation: 18

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
Here's a contemporary listing in the Durant Manor area of Oakland (I'm expanding off that article, for comparison's sake, since the sale featured in the article was in 2016). This one's a fixer-upper, only 2 br., and has a list price of roughly the same as the 3-br. nicer place that other guy got. They won't even show photos of the inside, it's such a fixer-upper. https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...-64989?view=qv

It doesn't look good for your chances, but by all means, give your search a good try.

Here's one at a very good price (for the Bay Area), in very good shape. Sale is pending. Watch the listing to see what it finally sells for. (Also Durant Manor)

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...-71380?view=qv
Thats great advice, I'll definitely start following these listings to see how they progress.

Another interesting source of information I found was the Oakland public safety and crimes map here

https://data.oaklandnet.com/Public-S...56xf-w7yc/data


When I filtered the crimes by the severe types which we typically care about which are: homicide, assault, weapons and sex crime:

Here's the picture I get

https://i.imgur.com/hdPs8udg.jpg

Things definitely seems worse in the "deeper east"
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Old 04-17-2018, 02:12 PM
 
8 posts, read 16,021 times
Reputation: 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssmaster View Post
Temescal is no longer up and coming , it has arrived.
Temescal was adjacent to the highly desirable rockridge,public transportation and did not have any housing projects.
If buying in east Oakland proximity to housing projects and section 8 housing should be considered
Do you know where I can find maps or locations of housing projects and section 8 housing?
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Old 04-17-2018, 07:52 PM
 
244 posts, read 180,874 times
Reputation: 488
As an East Bay resident of two decades, I would never choose to live in East Oakland, whether as a renter or a buyer. Reason in one word: violence.

Whenever I go through there, I get an overwhelmingly strong vibe about certain individuals that I usually encounter. I am constantly on high alert and being at ease is just not a sane option. Living that way day to day must be very stressful, especially when you can't let your guard down even at your own home or near it; is some abstract notion of "American Dream" really worth it to you?

Maybe East Oakland will gentrify and maybe it won't- there is no way to tell. But even if it does, it will take years. During these years you will be living in constant state of being extra alert to dangers to your physical integrity (if not outright scared). You choose if you want to take that gamble.

Finally, a personal anecdote. Someone I know bought a house in West Oakland (about as bad as East Oakland) about a decade ago. He really bought into the "it's up and coming" hype. Well, he is still waiting for that happy day, a few episodes of really close calls after.
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Old 04-18-2018, 01:47 PM
 
28,115 posts, read 63,651,739 times
Reputation: 23263
I know this is about your budget but roommates it would be doable...

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...5_M16424-14932

I toured the home... I believe this is the first time on market since the 1960's.

Home is clean, dated and with a truly amazing view and above 580...

I did exactly what you did right after graduation... wanted to own in the worst way and the only single family home I could afford was on 90th below East 14th... best single financial decision of my life and the experience was like getting an advanced education in renovation, home ownership, community building...etc.

With each move I moved up a little... 65th and Bancroft, Havenscourt, Minna, Brookdale... etc... the only place I lived where it got a little sketchy was near 98th and Edes... several real problem thugs in the area... but, they didn't last long which is the sad truth of that lifestyle.

My luck was buying in neighborhoods that were at the bottom so they couldn't go any lower...

If you buy into an area afraid and nervous it will never work... I have also lived in Pleasant Hill, Castro Valley, Pittsburg and came back to East Oakland... simply didn't like the commute... the home in Castro Valley was nice and with good retired neighbors but was broken into twice...

Out of all the neighborhoods the sleepiest and most tranquil was Pleasant Hill... the neighborhood where I had the most problems was in Pittsburg... just saying.

Last edited by Ultrarunner; 04-18-2018 at 02:00 PM..
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Old 04-18-2018, 03:33 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,193 posts, read 107,823,938 times
Reputation: 116097
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
I know this is about your budget but roommates it would be doable...

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...5_M16424-14932

I toured the home... I believe this is the first time on market since the 1960's.

Home is clean, dated and with a truly amazing view and above 580...

I did exactly what you did right after graduation... wanted to own in the worst way and the only single family home I could afford was on 90th below East 14th... best single financial decision of my life and the experience was like getting an advanced education in renovation, home ownership, community building...etc.

With each move I moved up a little... 65th and Bancroft, Havenscourt, Minna, Brookdale... etc... the only place I lived where it got a little sketchy was near 98th and Edes... several real problem thugs in the area... but, they didn't last long which is the sad truth of that lifestyle.

My luck was buying in neighborhoods that were at the bottom so they couldn't go any lower...

If you buy into an area afraid and nervous it will never work... I have also lived in Pleasant Hill, Castro Valley, Pittsburg and came back to East Oakland... simply didn't like the commute... the home in Castro Valley was nice and with good retired neighbors but was broken into twice...

Out of all the neighborhoods the sleepiest and most tranquil was Pleasant Hill... the neighborhood where I had the most problems was in Pittsburg... just saying.
That property is a huge leap above the OP's budget, though. He wouldn't have enough for a downpayment on that, probably. He's been bank-approved for $500K, I understood. Too bad, because it's an amazing place!

maybe you could help the OP identify some properties closer to his budget....?
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Old 04-18-2018, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Northern California
39 posts, read 45,344 times
Reputation: 43
I can't believe no one has suggested West Oakland.... I have lived there before and probably will again some day. Very good rents also, in case you decide to rent your place out some day. I like the Oak Center area of W Oakland.
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Old 04-18-2018, 10:22 PM
 
Location: America's Expensive Toilet
1,516 posts, read 1,247,981 times
Reputation: 3195
Honestly, I would spend some time actually living here before even considering purchasing. Vacations vs everyday life aren't always the same.
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Old 04-19-2018, 01:08 PM
 
28,115 posts, read 63,651,739 times
Reputation: 23263
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
That property is a huge leap above the OP's budget, though. He wouldn't have enough for a downpayment on that, probably. He's been bank-approved for $500K, I understood. Too bad, because it's an amazing place!

maybe you could help the OP identify some properties closer to his budget....?
The reality is Oakland is a Seller's market like never before...

I have tracked different neighborhoods of decades and the link below in more representative of what I am seeing now...

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...2_M27677-57342

Pre-War Homes of 950 to 1100 square feet setting new price records...

Example of the neighborhood over the long haul...

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...2_M27963-03054

1980's this home sold for 80k if you scroll down the link... twenty years of appreciation vanished in the Real Estate Meltdown...

In 2005 it would have sold for 510k

In 2009 it would have sold for 80k

2018 sold for $755k

The home in my previous post really stood out for the price... so there are still buys out there but it takes vigilance and being ready to jump in at a moments notice...

It is almost like dollars will soon be worthless and people are desperate to convert while there is still value... crazy.

The reason I listed links to these two homes is because they are representative of many flat land areas below 580 (MacArthur Freeway) but above 880 (Nimitz Freeway)
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Old 04-19-2018, 02:25 PM
 
8 posts, read 16,021 times
Reputation: 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
The reality is Oakland is a Seller's market like never before...

I have tracked different neighborhoods of decades and the link below in more representative of what I am seeing now...

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...2_M27677-57342

Pre-War Homes of 950 to 1100 square feet setting new price records...

Example of the neighborhood over the long haul...

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...2_M27963-03054

1980's this home sold for 80k if you scroll down the link... twenty years of appreciation vanished in the Real Estate Meltdown...

In 2005 it would have sold for 510k

In 2009 it would have sold for 80k

2018 sold for $755k

The home in my previous post really stood out for the price... so there are still buys out there but it takes vigilance and being ready to jump in at a moments notice...

It is almost like dollars will soon be worthless and people are desperate to convert while there is still value... crazy.

The reason I listed links to these two homes is because they are representative of many flat land areas below 580 (MacArthur Freeway) but above 880 (Nimitz Freeway)

This is super insightful. Thank you!

The whole country is a seller's market right now and its probably not a good time to buy. I missed the boat for the 2009-2012 when it was a buyer's market but I was in school. Just my luck.

The bigger question is, when will it ever be a buyer's market again? other than some catastrophic black swan event in the global economy or war, it doesn't seem like the status quo will change any time soon. Years of QE has greatly inflated all asset prices. Prop 13 has made it so that California home owners are better off staying put. Building permits are still low compared to the exploding population of the bay area.

Then there's the greater macro trend of declining home ownership in the united states and the rise of the renter population, coupled with the increased polarized distribution of wealth, home ownership doesn't seem like it will rebound.

With all this in mind, it seems like its still better to try buy SOMETHING today rather than wait for the next crash/housing downturn that will or will not come. The markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
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Old 04-19-2018, 07:02 PM
 
28,115 posts, read 63,651,739 times
Reputation: 23263
Hard to say... in my short time there have been several market reversals but none like 2009-12 where some areas dropped 80% but more typical is the 40-60%... even the high demand areas fell 15% here in Northern CA.

Prop 60, 90 and 110 allow home owners in certain circumstances to downsize and take their Prop 13 with them.

California Real Estate always seems to come back stronger or as some say... Self-Correct.

The problem with 2009-12 is that many NO LONGER WANTED TO OWN DEPRECIATING real estate and bailed out...

I work with several Doctors that did Strategic defaults... they bought nicer/better homes for less money and once moved in walked away from properties with negative equity...

Others were in property they were unable to refinance at lower interest rates because they had no equity...

A family I know walked away from their home that was costing them $3800 a month and rented the home across the street for $1500...

At work... only one of my co-workers bought when prices were down... single mom of one... many told her not to do it... her 300k home is now an easy 700k... and while it cost her more per month to buy back in 2012... the rents at her old apartment are now much higher than her mortgage...

If you are willing to go long... it could very well work for you... if you have to or are forced to sell in the short term... it gets risky.
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