What We Know (and Don't Want to Know) About Housing (North Port: appointed, real estate market)

[dishing the 9411]

This is a really good read about the current state of the real estate market.

charles hugh smith-What We Know (and Don't Want to Know) About Housing

[loves2read]

you give no credentials for this web blog written by someone who means nothing to me...
the Internet is wide and has many sites with all kinds of info--
does not mean they are accurate, unbiases, and worth reading...

[dishing the 9411]

Of course, the title says it all, What We Know (and Don't Want to Know) About Housing. Some folks just dont want to know, and thats OK. But its still good to have exposure to another perspective.

[Rushmore]

you seem obsessed with enlightening us all about the real estate situation. Not about rogue states with nuclear weapons or the oil spill...the real estate market crisis seems to be your Cause.

What is it that drives you? What is your profession? If it is not somehow involved with real estate, I am sincerely curious as to what it is that makes this topic so near and dear to your heart.

[dishing the 9411]

It is not an obsession; I do it just for fun. I do it to be helpful. I have seen so many people who have lost their life’s fortune by making a bad real estate decision. Most people do not have all the facts and I think it might be helpful for a potential buyer to understand another perspective about the marketplace. These are topics that are not discussed on the evening news very often. If you do not find this information useful, please disregard it. FYI: I could post for days about other issues as well. However, this topic seems much more appropriate for this forum :-)

[lynne4t]

Many people (myself included) come here because they are considering buying real estate in the area. The information provided on both sides is appreciated. There are plenty of people with a vested interest in showing the positives stories about real estate. This is a is a huge decision and the more informed I am the better. So, thank you and keep the links coming!

[Big House]

When buying real estate, houses, or other types of investments, you need to have a long term approach. I have a long term view when it comes to real estate. Certainly there has been a huge cycle of over building, and the market is correcting itself. There as been big loses by many individuals that have invested during the 2003-2008 run-up. But, if you follow the long term picture there are always period of time when property values increase and decrease, but overall - big picture real estate has been a good investment. If you bought during 2003 - 2008, or refinanced during that period you will most certainly be disappointed, discouraged, and angry - especially if you really reached to make a purchase during that time. Even those that did not purchase during that time, have found that their property values have decreased as a result of poor mortgage practices and government manipulation and policies - virtually no property owner went unscathed.

That said, Florida real estate pricing has deflated to point where properties have been selling far below cost for a few years now. Real estate is not being created, there is a large surplus right now, but as the supply dwindles the demand will increase. It may take some time - thus you have to have a long term approach, so that the term can bridge over the valleys that are occasionally created when prices drop. And, they could drop more, but the government and the banks are working to trickle in the inventory, and not flood it in so that prices remain stable (supply equalling or nearly equalling the demand / obsorbsion rate).

Location - Florida is much better situated than many areas of the country. There are a lot of things that make Florida desirable. Great Weather (if you like warm weather), no income taxes, beaches (if they can control the oil, and maintain them in a clean manner), and many other things. It is a wonderful place to live the retirement years - a fact that causes the population to be a little older, but creates a service based industry that will remain stable. There is a continual migration of people into Florida from the northern states, and other places like Canada and Europe. This will always ensure that there are some jobs. Florida needs to create other revenue generating businesses, and when that happens (something besides construction) Florida will become a much stronger, more desirable place to live and work.

Industry hasn't caught on to the fact that they can buy land cheaply in Florida, and that Florida has a large workforce of very competatively paid people. Both of those factors should bring in business investment opprotunities at some point.

Sorry for being so long winded, but I am optomistic, and enjoy all the things that Florida has right now which I enjoy; sunshine, biking, walking, kayaking, entertainment, nice people, golfing, swimming, warm weather, warm rain showers, beaches, wildlife (and wild-life ;-) ), fishing, all the parks, shopping, the beautiful palm trees, flowering plants, the everglades, small interesting historic towns, all the art festivals, all the music fesitvals, all the seafood festivals, all the new interesting people I meet from all over the country, and doing a bit of traveling and exploring.

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by Big House

When buying real estate, houses, or other types of investments, you need to have a long term approach. I have a long term view when it comes to real estate. Certainly there has been a huge cycle of over building, and the market is correcting itself. There as been big loses by many individuals that have invested during the 2003-2008 run-up. But, if you follow the long term picture there are always period of time when property values increase and decrease, but overall - big picture real estate has been a good investment. If you bought during 2003 - 2008, or refinanced during that period you will most certainly be disappointed, discouraged, and angry - especially if you really reached to make a purchase during that time. Even those that did not purchase during that time, have found that their property values have decreased as a result of poor mortgage practices and government manipulation and policies - virtually no property owner went unscathed.

That said, Florida real estate pricing has deflated to point where properties have been selling far below cost for a few years now. Real estate is not being created, there is a large surplus right now, but as the supply dwindles the demand will increase. It may take some time - thus you have to have a long term approach, so that the term can bridge over the valleys that are occasionally created when prices drop. And, they could drop more, but the government and the banks are working to trickle in the inventory, and not flood it in so that prices remain stable (supply equalling or nearly equalling the demand / obsorbsion rate).

Location - Florida is much better situated than many areas of the country. There are a lot of things that make Florida desirable. Great Weather (if you like warm weather), no income taxes, beaches (if they can control the oil, and maintain them in a clean manner), and many other things. It is a wonderful place to live the retirement years - a fact that causes the population to be a little older, but creates a service based industry that will remain stable. There is a continual migration of people into Florida from the northern states, and other places like Canada and Europe. This will always ensure that there are some jobs. Florida needs to create other revenue generating businesses, and when that happens (something besides construction) Florida will become a much stronger, more desirable place to live and work.

Industry hasn't caught on to the fact that they can buy land cheaply in Florida, and that Florida has a large workforce of very competatively paid people. Both of those factors should bring in business investment opprotunities at some point.

Sorry for being so long winded, but I am optomistic, and enjoy all the things that Florida has right now which I enjoy; sunshine, biking, walking, kayaking, entertainment, nice people, golfing, swimming, warm weather, warm rain showers, beaches, wildlife (and wild-life ;-) ), fishing, all the parks, shopping, the beautiful palm trees, flowering plants, the everglades, small interesting historic towns, all the art festivals, all the music fesitvals, all the seafood festivals, all the new interesting people I meet from all over the country, and doing a bit of traveling and exploring.

Great minds think alike - I agree with all this ^^^. Once again, I tip my glass to you, Mr. BigHouse!

[lovewholeself]

Thanks again, 9411, for posting a downside perspective about housing. Like Lynne4t says, and I'm in same boat--I like to be aware of both sides. The plusses to buy and live in SW FL are clearly very attractive to me. Agree with Big House, you have to have long-term approach.

For those of us in the SW FL buying market, the long-term approach seems to steer me toward "wait and see." (I've relocated 5 times in my life so it's not like I'm scared in general to do so nor am I putting life on hold.) I am emotionally disappointed because I was really ready to move there (still might do so in fall and rent for awhile until I decide/see what feels right). But I'm feeling too many signals it's not the right time to buy. I had my heart set on all the wonderful aspects I imagine (and hear about) living there. Was so excited about the good deals in housing prices and signed contract last month on house in North Port. When extra, potential repairs became apparent after the inspection, I terminated the contract. Meanwhile, the oil spill was (and is still) not contained, its future effects for FL's economy, housing, environmental health, beauty, tourist attraction, etc. were even more unknown and the risks increasing.

I don't even want to read, and sometimes find myself poo-pooing, articles and news features about the oil spill's threats to FL. I think they're exaggerating and that it'll never get that bad. There's stuff out there that the crater (hole) in the earth from where all the oil is gushing out will create a vacumn, in turn cause a tsunami on SW FL coast. Or, that if hurricanes in Gulf hit land, they'll rain the toxins and oil from this spill. There's talk that there will be a mass evacuation from FL's Gulf coast (and even further inland).

I'm praying and meditating to the Higher Powers that this crisis will be blessed with some miracle and minimize it's current and potential devastating effects (like in Louisiana and the possible spread into estuaries in Alabama coastal areas). Blessings, love and best scenario to our health and well-being!!