Shocking Surprises Yet Ahead for the U.S. Housing Market… (Sarasota: bank owned, sales)

[lynne4t]

I know there are a few people (me too) who are in a "wait and see" mode for whatever reason in regard to buying a home. These two articles indicate that there's certainly no reason to hurry. I realize real estate is local, and because this area has already dropped so much, prices may not drop as much as 50% more, but no need to feel you're going to miss out on great deals if you don't buy now.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20613.html

richard suttmeier home prices could fall another 50: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

[saralvr]

A big problem for people is that they need to sell their current home to purchase another. Maybe not so much in the Sarasota market, especially for those retirees who can make a cash purchase. Or those who can finance a 2nd home. This is a great time for them. For the rest of us, if we can't sell, we can't buy. It doesn't matter how great the prices are. It's the proverbial "catch 22".

Add to that the scare that our current home will decrease in value, thus, making the homes we are looking at in Sarasota more unattainable unless they drop as well.

[SoFLGal]

I usually take the articles in the paper and use them for bird cage material. Here's one that ran in today's local paper: New hints of relief in local housing | HeraldTribune.com

I think the best indication is actual facts and figures. I pulled a few stats this morning. Here are the stats for sold properties in all of Sarasota county:

Jan: 642
Feb: 764
Mar: 1012
Apr: 941
May: 965
June: 970

Traditionally the summer months tend to be slower but that's not the case this year. I deal with mostly bank owned properties and I can tell you there hasn't been a huge surge in those either. I do however want to check out the stats that come out in the next few months, due to the oil spill. I haven't seen a huge decrease in sales but I'm wondering how it might be effecting the market as whole.I do believe some people are "holding off" on buying to see what's going to happen. But if you look at the stats so far since the spill happened it has had no effect on the sales thus far.

[gypsychic]

New hints of relief in local housing | HeraldTribune.com

ETA: haha - SoFLGal you beat me to it! Personally, to me this area seems to be doing great.

[lynne4t]

Just want to point out that the tax credit will affect sales numbers right through the end of September, as the deadline for closing has been extended. Though I would think most of the uptick from the credit would've occurred in the first quarter of this year.

I think we can all agree that there's not going to be a shortage of houses or a sudden surge in prices anytime in the near future. In my very humble opinion, I wouldn't discourage anyone from buying now, but I'm sure there's no rush.

[Rushmore]

I am also lining my bird cage with stats like that, though, Gal. While I am more bullish on the local real estate than most, I am also not unaware of the fact that the tax credit definitely boosted the numbers a bit, and that the number of foreclosures being snatched up is also inflating the results.

Again, I don't presume to know much about it, and I am (perhaps irrationally) cautiously optimistic about the entire subject, but I think all of the alchemists and prognosticators are pretty much just grasping at straws.

[Flowler]

Without year over year comparisons, SoFlGal's stats really don't mean much to me. And heck, I know FL gets hot in the summer, but most places I've been, summer sales drive the market because that's when people tend to move. I'm not knocking SoFLGal's contribution to this thread, I'm merely confused.

What were sales like last May and June? And the year before? That's all I'm sayin'. Plus, how do we filter out the impact of the tax credit on this year's sales, as lynne4t mentioned? I guess it's pretty clear that I'm with the "no rush, take your time" camp.

[loves2read]

in other markets people are not mainly retired or looking for second homes--in most other markets people move in spring and summer because of relocating their children
this is not really a problem for the majority of people buying in the local market in Sarasota county
from what I understand

from what I hear from my daughter good homes in good areas are finding buyers--whether those are people looking for second homes, investment property, or main residence--can't say...

BUT that also does not mean that downturn in main economy could slow sales and force other foreclosures or price drops
the fact is that in a trouble economy when all the bears are claiming the Dow is going down and staying down for while (usually until the Republicans come back into office I guess) the big assets are strategic metals (gold buying), real estate, and foreign bonds that will hold value, TIPS/US bonds--although why you would want US bonds if you think the US govt is going to hell in handbasket I don't know...but supposedly that is what some recommend...

[SoFLGal]

Originally Posted by Flowler

Without year over year comparisons, SoFlGal's stats really don't mean much to me. And heck, I know FL gets hot in the summer, but most places I've been, summer sales drive the market because that's when people tend to move. I'm not knocking SoFLGal's contribution to this thread, I'm merely confused.

What were sales like last May and June? And the year before? That's all I'm sayin'. Plus, how do we filter out the impact of the tax credit on this year's sales, as lynne4t mentioned? I guess it's pretty clear that I'm with the "no rush, take your time" camp.

We cannot write any new offers and have our clients get the benefit of the tax credit. It's only existing offers that close before Sept, that get that benefit. I can speak for myself as far as the tax credit goes I had one person that was specifically interested and mentioned it to me. I close on average six homes a month. Honestly, I don't think that had a huge impact on sales. Of course, I'm just one person so I may be off on that but that's my opinion.

Flowler, I stand corrected. It does appear looking at the stats that more sales occur in the summer months. For some reason it seems as though we are always busier in the winter months. Maybe it's because of the holidays and such.

For the record, I was referring to my article and Lynn4t's article as bird cage liner. I just don't put much weight in what the press tells ya. They're in the business of selling papers, etc. The more shocking the article the more views or papers it sells. Hence the more they can charge for their advertising. I go by local stats and sales that I personally pull up. I do realize everyone doesn't have access to these figures though.

These stats are all properties sold in Sarasota county in each month.

Here ya go:

2010 stats
Jan: 642
Feb: 764
Mar: 1012
Apr: 941
May: 965
June: 970

2009 stats:
Jan: 497
Feb: 577
Mar: 781
Apr: 820
May: 788
June: 816
July: 725
Aug: 630
Sept: 673
Oct: 679
Nov: 699
Dec: 795

2008 stats:
Jan: 417
Feb: 499
Mar: 646
Apr: 700
May: 733
June: 657
July: 638
Aug: 528
Sept: 561
Oct: 557
Nov: 489
Dec: 598

[Flowler]

Thanks so much for the info, SoFlGal. It really bolsters your original response, I think, even if we somehow adjust for the tax credit impact. Wow, this forum is an incredible resource. Thanks everyone!