More foreclosures to come....WOOT! (Sarasota, North Port: sales, real estate, renting)

[QuilterChick]

Originally Posted by Big House

I track the foreclosure market very carefully, and do not see the flood gates opening on foreclosures coming on line for a few more months - at least. These take time to go through the system, so it is not going to happen soon, and when it does the banks are going to control the release so that they keep the demand and supply at a more even rate than what happened a year or more ago - at least in SWFL where we are no longer in the top 10 worse housing markets and are recovering quickly.

So, we are past the bottom. Prices are beginning to rise, and the banks (who want to make as much money as anyone else) are not going to let them go as cheaply as they had to a couple years ago.

That said, the market and supply will be a buyers market for a while, but the deals won't be quite as good. And, as the snowbirds and other northerners come here looking for deals prices will continue to rise for the next several months. If these shoppers come down and continue to deplete the supply it won't be till next spring that prices recede much.

BH, are you tracking single family homes or condos, or both?

I'll predict that we could see an uptick in demand for condos in good condition in the $80K to $100K range in good areas, most of which are purchased by cash buyers/snowbirds for vacation homes, or by investors for renting. Maintenance is taken care of, lock and leave with minimum concerns, easy to rent if desired; lower expenses. Opinions ?

[Big House]

Originally Posted by QuilterChick

BH, are you tracking single family homes or condos, or both?

I'll predict that we could see an uptick in demand for condos in good condition in the $80K to $100K range in good areas, most of which are purchased by cash buyers/snowbirds for vacation homes, or by investors for renting. Maintenance is taken care of, lock and leave with minimum concerns, easy to rent if desired; lower expenses. Opinions ?

No, I'm not tracking condos. I buy single family homes.

As a follow up to my earlier post, I am speaking about the local SWFL area, and more particularly the Sarasota County area. This area has recovered far more than what is happening nationally, and in some other areas of Florida. This area has recovered significantly from where it was, and the trend continues. More houses may come to market with future forclosures - and they certainly will. However in this area they will be trickled in, and not dumped on the market because they are selling and selling well. So those of you that want to buy, should at least consider what I'm saying, and if your looking you will probably, although reluctantly agree because house prices are climbing here.

When more houses are brought on line they will sell at a good pace. Remember a year ago there were twice as many houses, and they were selling, and the prices stabilized. So there could be a lot more houses hitting the market right now and they would be quickly absorbed.

There will be more houses coming on line. I agree with many of the things that the article noted. The economy is not stronger in a hurry, but it is a lot more stable than it was. The job market is not a lot stronger either. People are still falling further and further behind, and continuing to make lifestyle adjustments. People are coming here and buying though, paying taxes, hiring people, buying services, and the season is about to change where it will get better again too.

There are not a lot of foreclosures in the pipeline for the next few months, I expect that to increase in a several months, but there is not a lot coming for 2-3 months. We here are in a pocket that is not representative of the general news we all here. Remember when buying its all about LOCATION, and that is true during this recovery period here as well.

[Sunshine Rules]

The Sarasota Association of Realtors just released the latest statistics for August and there were several interesting stats regarding the local Sarasota market.

Inventory of properties for sale has been dropping steadily for months and is now at a 10 year low. As of August of this year, there were 4408 properties for sale in Sarasota. Compare that to over 17,000 properties for sale in March of 2007.

I track inventories of single family homes priced under $200,000 and currently we are at 4.7 months of inventory in Sarasota. 6 months of inventory is considered equilibrium. I've noted that the median price of sold homes in several such neighborhoods has come up between 3 and 6% over the past 5 months.

Another interesting statistic is that the number of distress sales (foreclosures and short sales) for August made up 41.2% of the market, but the inventory of distress properties for sale is down to less than 20% of the market.

As to condos in Sarasota, the inventory of condos priced in that $80,000 to $100,000 range is definitely shrinking, although officially the condo inventory overall is at 10.2 months of inventory. Many of the condo communities that had huge numbers of short sales and bank owned listings last winter are now down to a handfull (or less) of units for sale.

The info I am getting from sources is that the banks are taking note of the dwindling inventory and we should not expect a huge "dump" of bank owned properties to come on the market as in the past, but more of a slow, steady stream of properties at closer to current market prices.

[QuilterChick]

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

The Sarasota Association of Realtors just released the latest statistics for August and there were several interesting stats regarding the local Sarasota market.

Inventory of properties for sale has been dropping steadily for months and is now at a 10 year low. As of August of this year, there were 4408 properties for sale in Sarasota. Compare that to over 17,000 properties for sale in March of 2007.

I track inventories of single family homes priced under $200,000 and currently we are at 4.7 months of inventory in Sarasota. 6 months of inventory is considered equilibrium. I've noted that the median price of sold homes in several such neighborhoods has come up between 3 and 6% over the past 5 months.

Another interesting statistic is that the number of distress sales (foreclosures and short sales) for August made up 41.2% of the market, but the inventory of distress properties for sale is down to less than 20% of the market.

As to condos in Sarasota, the inventory of condos priced in that $80,000 to $100,000 range is definitely shrinking, although officially the condo inventory overall is at 10.2 months of inventory. Many of the condo communities that had huge numbers of short sales and bank owned listings last winter are now down to a handfull (or less) of units for sale.

The info I am getting from sources is that the banks are taking note of the dwindling inventory and we should not expect a huge "dump" of bank owned properties to come on the market as in the past, but more of a slow, steady stream of properties at closer to current market prices.

Nice post Sunshine, thanks. That sounds good to meeee... now let's see if someone from the Charlotte County Board(s) can post their statistics on inventory and sales and projections for the upcoming season.

[Texabama]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Just got home from my 4 trip to Florida this year looking for a second home. Prices continue to drop, realtors and banks are pressing harder and harder than ever to get a sell. I'm going to keep holding off until this next tsunami of foreclosures hit, then I'll jump in and pick one or two up.

My cousin who is a property investment expert is telling me that his computer model is predicting another 10-15% drop in home values in the next year.

Computer model. My first thought is; garbage in, garbage out.

R.E. investment programs were also run in 2005; result - buy, buy, buy.

Prices will not drop in this area by 15%, unless there's a major black swan event.

[QuilterChick]

Originally Posted by Texabama

Computer model. My first thought is; garbage in, garbage out.

R.E. investment programs were also run in 2005; result - buy, buy, buy.

Prices will not drop in this area by 15%, unless there's a major black swan event.

You are so correct Texabama. Confucius says:

"He who tries to time market big loser."

The smart money buys real estate when the numbers work for their portfolio, period.

Same goes for the stock market.

[Sunshine Rules]

The problem with a lot of these reports is that they are about areas in general, such as SW Florida or Central FL, etc and not specific cities. Sarasota and North Port are actually 2 different real estate markets, as are Lakeland and Orlando.

Real estate is local, and as I said previously in this thread, the inventory of homes for sale in the Sarasota area is dropping month by month, demand is increasing and prices are slowly starting to appreciate as well.

Try finding a nice, move in condition 3 bdrm/2 bath home in Sarasota for under $150,000 and you'll see what I mean about inventory.

[cupper3]

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

The problem with a lot of these reports is that they are about areas in general, such as SW Florida or Central FL, etc and not specific cities. Sarasota and North Port are actually 2 different real estate markets, as are Lakeland and Orlando.

Real estate is local, and as I said previously in this thread, the inventory of homes for sale in the Sarasota area is dropping month by month, demand is increasing and prices are slowly starting to appreciate as well.

Try finding a nice, move in condition 3 bdrm/2 bath home in Sarasota for under $150,000 and you'll see what I mean about inventory.

I just did a search and came up with 63 priced between 65K and 150K, many in very, very nice looking shape. Newest was 1990, so if your tied into a 10 year old or newer house, your right, they are not there.

[wondermint2]

Census indicates area's mortgage health is poor | HeraldTribune.com

[JohnVosilla]

Originally Posted by Texabama

Computer model. My first thought is; garbage in, garbage out.

R.E. investment programs were also run in 2005; result - buy, buy, buy.

Prices will not drop in this area by 15%, unless there's a major black swan event.

True. The numbers have never worked better than now in my 25 years doing this stuff.. Even in the dog days of the early 1990's interest rates were much higher and rents were real low.