Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Well Dr. Salemi was very close with his estimate for new weekly cases in Florida. He even underestimated slightly. I'm still waiting for the FDOH to release the county-level weekly Covid data - they're dragging their heels. Usually it's updated by now. I have no proof of this - but their slow weekly update makes me wonder if they're sitting around trying to think of ways to "spin" the data to make it look better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wondermint2
Dr. Salemi predicts based on the steady increase in cases observed over the last few days, the state will see 60 to 70,000 new COVID cases this week, an average of 9,000 to 10,000 a day.
More than 73,000 new COVID-19 cases reported in Florida, positivity rate increases
Florida is reporting 73,199 new COVID-19 cases throughout the state, more than 25,000 more cases than the previous week.
The number of cases has brought the positivity rate from 11% the week before, to 15%, with new deaths.
As the number of cases in Florida continues to sore, the number of people being vaccinated continues to drop. This week, 245,945 people either completed their series of shots or got their first dose.
Last edited by wondermint2; 07-23-2021 at 04:02 PM..
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit just changed its mind and sided with Florida in ongoing drama over cruise ships sailing out of ports in the Sunshine State. The about-face at the circuit court level was almost certainly brought on by Florida’s recent petition to the United States Supreme Court, asking the justices to rule against the CDC’s ongoing “no-sail order.”
The Eleventh Circuit’s Friday afternoon shifts things into the CDC’s court; the agency can certainly raise an appeal to the Supreme Court on its own behalf. Whether the CDC will pursue the short-term appeal remains to be seen, as the timing of the circuit court’s change of heart suggests the judges may have been swayed by the looming potential of Supreme Court reversal.
Well it's looking like the FDOH isn't going to update their weekly county-level PDF file today. First they went from a daily update to a weekly update (and cut out a lot of information), it's buried in a PDF file that's not the easiest thing for the public to access, and now they can't/won't even put out the weekly update on time. I don't know what their excuse is but IMO this lack of transparency is totally unacceptable.
Ok I came across a little snippet from the Sarasota Herald-Tribune that mentioned the new combined weekly case count from Sarasota and Manatee Counties:
COVID-19 hospitalizations double and infections surge in Sarasota-Manatee, Florida
This week, there were eight times as many new COVID-19 cases in Sarasota and Manatee counties as there were four weeks ago.
According to Florida Department of Health data, the two counties combined for 224 new cases of COVID-19 the week ending June 24. This week (July 16 - July 22), that number grew to 1,897 new cases. Last week (July 9-15) there were 1161 new cases combined in Sarasota and Manatee County. (Last week Sarasota County reported 504 new cases)
On June 19, Sarasota Memorial Hospital had four COVID-19 patients. By July 16, that number had rocketed to 26. Over the past week, the number of COVID-19 patients at SMH has doubled to 54 as of July 23, with seven of those in the ICU.
Test positivity ratio = 16.39% (increase of 4.08%)
New hospital admissions = 43 (+53.57%)
Testing volume = 5034 (increase of 1.39%)
Sarasota County
Test positivity ratio = 15.28% (increase of 6.2%)
New hospital admissions = 64 (+33.33%)
Testing volume = 4430 (decline of 12.55%)
Through July 23rd the percent of total population vaccinated in Manatee County is 45.8%
Through July 23rd the percent of total population vaccinated in Sarasota County is 55.7%
Last edited by wondermint2; 07-23-2021 at 07:43 PM..
Well it's looking like the FDOH isn't going to update their weekly county-level PDF file today. First they went from a daily update to a weekly update (and cut out a lot of information), it's buried in a PDF file that's not the easiest thing for the public to access, and now they can't/won't even put out the weekly update on time. I don't know what their excuse is but IMO this lack of transparency is totally unacceptable.
As Florida hits 10,000 cases a day, experts seek more COVID data from state
As the pandemic takes another turn for the worse, Florida health experts are struggling with infrequent and incomplete data releases from the state. The state stopped reporting daily COVID-19 infection and vaccination data on June 3. Instead, it sends out weekly reports every Friday, the latest one coming out at 5:31 p.m.
“Doing this weekly report just leaves you completely in the dark about what’s going on,” said University of Florida epidemiologist Cindy Prins. “And then on Friday, all of a sudden, like, boom, you get this surprise number.”
Florida limits COVID data
The Florida Department of Health also stopped sharing key demographic data points with the public, such as hospitalizations, infections in nursing homes, and county level infections and vaccinations by race, age and gender. At that time, health officials said this change reflected a new phase of the pandemic as cases fell.
“COVID-19 cases have significantly decreased over the past year as we have a less than 5 percent positivity rate, and our state is returning to normal, with vaccines widely available throughout Florida,” Gov. Ron DeSantis’ press secretary Christina Pushaw said in a June 3 email announcing the change.
Experts believe the state should consider sharing more data more frequently. Rampant spread of the delta variant in Florida, where nearly one-third of residents remain unvaccinated, means that any delay in data could have profound repercussions, said Beth Blauer, executive director of the Centers for Civic Impact at John Hopkins.
“We are at a moment where we’re seeing an exponential increase in cases where the impact of decision making over days could have a significant impact on our ability to do disease control,” said Blauer.
There are no plans for the state to return to daily COVID-19 reports, Pushaw wrote in an email to the Tampa Bay Times sent earlier Friday.
“Anyone who is worried about COVID should get vaccinated,” she said. “The data shows us that vaccination is very effective at preventing serious illness.”
The state also stopped sharing data on COVID-19 cases at individual long-term care facilities. The Department of Health removed that data from its COVID-19 reports in May. Officials did not respond to questions from the Times about whether it would resume publishing that data or share the vaccination rates in those facilities.
Data drives decisions
There is precedence for states to increase their reporting as cases increase. Alabama recently reverted to publishing updates three times a week after weekly cases increased by over 1,000 percent in the past month.
“I think daily data is critically important,” said Blauer, “for public trust in the process, for that kind of independent decision making that happens in families.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does provide some daily data that the state previously reported, like cases and deaths. But the CDC data is “significantly hamstrung,” Blauer said. Deaths and cases reported by the CDC require extra steps of validation and certification that many states do not require when tallying their numbers.
“That’s going to create a significant lag if you’re relying on CDC reporting,” Blauer said. “So there’s some really significant value in seeing what the states are looking at.”
Ok I came across a little snippet from the Sarasota Herald-Tribune that mentioned the new combined weekly case count from Sarasota and Manatee Counties.
OK the FDOH finally updated their weekly PDF file. It's looking like that combined total of 1897 new weekly cases (July 16 - 22) for Sarasota and Manatee County from the Sarasota Herald Tribune was a misprint. According to the FDOH the combined total is actually 1997.
The percentage of 12+ vaccinated barely budged for the week - which barring a return to more cautious behavior (which doesn't seeming likely at the moment) - either vaccinations are going to need to start increasing in a meaningful way or the Delta variant will just have to continue spreading in the community until a large number are immune from natural infection. IMO this virus is so virulent it's going to end up finding just about all of the unvaccinated. The testing probably only turns up about 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections - so it's hard to know how close we're actually getting to some kind of herd immunity and a top. Let's just say I think we've still got a ways to go.
Also of note the CDC has the 7-day test positivity ratio for Sarasota County much higher than the FDOH has it at. The CDC has it at 15.28% compared to 11.9% from the FDOH. They calculate the numbers differently but I'm more inclined to trust the CDC.
The new numbers from FDOH (for the week of July 16 - 22) break down this way:
Manatee County reported 998 new cases (representing a 52% increase from the previous week) - with their new test positivity rate making a big jump to 15.4%. There were 246.1 cases per 100,000 population.
Sarasota County reported 999 new cases (representing an increase of 98% over the previous week). Their new test positivity rate took a big jump up to 11.9% . There were 203.8 new cases per 100,000 population.
The percent of 12+ vaccinated in Manatee County (since March 1) is 58%.
The percent of 12+ vaccinated in Sarasota County (since March 1) is 68%.
For comparison purposes the FDOH numbers from the previous week of July 9 - 15:
Manatee County reported 657 new cases (representing a 168% increase from the previous week) - with their new test positivity rate making a big jump to 12.6%. There were 162 cases per 100,000 population.
Sarasota County reported 504 new cases (representing an increase of 119% over the previous week). Their new test positivity rate took a big jump up to 8.6% . There were 114.2 new cases per 100,000 population.
The percent of 12+ vaccinated in Manatee County (since March 1) is 57%.
The percent 0f 12+ vaccinated in Sarasota County (since March 1) is 68%.
Last edited by wondermint2; 07-23-2021 at 10:52 PM..
The percentage of 12+ vaccinated barely budged for the week - which barring a return to more cautious behavior (which doesn't seeming likely at the moment) - either vaccinations are going to need to start increasing in a meaningful way or the Delta variant will just have to continue spreading in the community until a large number are immune from natural infection. IMO this virus is so virulent it's going to end up finding just about all of the unvaccinated.
Poll shows majority of unvaccinated Americans don't plan on getting full protection
The majority of unvaccinated Americans say they do not plan to get vaccinated against COVID-19, according to a new poll.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows 56.5% of Americans have gotten at least one dose, and 43.5% have not received one. Of those people, a poll by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 35% say they probably will not get the vaccine, and 45% say they definitely will not.
Unvaccinated people don't have confidence in the effectiveness of the vaccine, the survey found, with 64% saying they have little to no confidence in it, even against the highly spreadable delta variant that now accounts for a vast majority of cases in the U.S.
The findings come as governors in states with high infection rates are asking those who remain unvaccinated to get the shot. The study was conducted before a number of Republican governors and lawmakers made their appeals this week.
Florida recorded more coronavirus cases this week than California, Texas, New York and Illinois combined, according to an analysis of state and federal data shows by the Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY network.
Patients in intensive care units (ICUs) with COVID-19 at a Florida hospital are "begging" to be vaccinated, a nurse told CNN.
The unnamed nurse, who works at the Baptist Medical Center in Jacksonville, Florida, said that patients, the overwhelming majority of whom are unvaccinated, are "at a loss" for what they can do to stay alive.
"Every single day... you're getting ready to intubate the patient in ICU, which means putting them on a ventilator, and they say, 'If I get the vaccine now, can I not go on the ventilator?'" the nurse told CNN's Randi Kaye.
She said that she has to repeatedly point out that the right time to get a COVID-19 vaccine is before they get sick.
"They're desperate because they're gasping for air, they can't breathe, they're scared, they feel like they're going to pass away," the nurse continued. "They're just asking for whatever they can do to possibly keep them from being put on a ventilator because once a patient gets on a ventilator, it's really hard to wean them off."
The number of COVID-19 patients at Baptist Medical Center is rapidly rising, according to CNN. There are 349 patients with coronavirus at the moment, and 74 are in the ICU, the media outlet reported.
Around 44 percent of the patients at the hospital are under the age of 40, and are staying at the hospital much longer because they are sicker, Kaye said.
An overwhelming majority (99.6 percent) have not yet received a COVID-19 vaccine, CNN added.
Jacksonville, where the hospital is situated, is one of the coronavirus hot spots in Florida, according to The New York Times.
The debate over masks is heating up again, with increasing calls for all Americans, regardless of coronavirus vaccination status, to return to wearing face coverings in indoor public places to help thwart the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. But some experts say the recommendations should specify the kind of masks people should be using.
“Delta is so contagious that when we talk about masks, I don’t think we should just talk about masks,” Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said during a recent appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “I think we should be talking about high-quality masks,” such as N95 respirators.
In an interview with The Washington Post, Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine and an infectious-disease expert at the University of California at San Francisco, expressed a similar sentiment: “We can’t say we’re going back to masks without discussing type of mask.”
Amid concerns about the rapid spread of the delta variant, “it’s a fantastic idea at this point in time to move toward higher-quality masks,” especially if you’re unvaccinated or otherwise vulnerable to severe disease, said Chris Cappa, an environmental engineer and professor at the University of California at Davis. And for fully vaccinated individuals who may still be at risk of breakthrough infections, he noted, “the delta variant is a good reminder that we shouldn’t necessarily quit wearing masks when we’re in environments that might be prone to transmission.”
The efficacy of a mask is based on its material and fit. Medical-grade respirators, such as N95 masks, can provide greater protection from infectious coronavirus particles than surgical masks or cloth masks, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech who studies airborne virus transmission.
In a little more than two weeks, on Aug. 10, Sarasota and Manatee students will return to campus in a new world where both masks and vaccines are optional.
Both school districts will not track or even ask employees or students about their vaccination status, according to spokespeople.
About 3,000 Manatee County school employees and roughly 300 students have been vaccinated through MCR Health clinics at schools or locations provided by the district.
Sarasota County Schools does not track the number of employees or students who have been vaccinated, but the health department has given 350 vaccines so far at a series of Pfizer clinics this summer at local schools. Two Sarasota public school clinics still remain — one on July 31 at Laurel Nokomis School from 9:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. and one on Aug. 7 at Riverview High School in the same timeframe.
“This is not something we’ll be asking students,” Sarasota County Schools spokesperson Kelsey Whealy wrote in an email Tuesday. “The DOH has awareness of which students are vaccinated for contact tracing purposes.”
Sarasota health department spokesperson Steve Huard said that the agency only finds out when a student is vaccinated if they are involved in the investigation of a known COVID-19 case. The department does not maintain a list of vaccinated and unvaccinated students.
Manatee County hosted vaccine clinics for students and employees this week at their school-based health centers at Manatee Elementary School and Southeast High School. Spokesperson Mike Barber said that the district would also be directing staff and parents to the Florida Department of Health in Manatee County’s walk-in vaccine clinic at the Palmetto bus station, as well as to pharmacies like CVS, Publix and Walgreens.
Sarasota and Manatee school districts are both moving forward with plans for masks to be optional in the coming school year, and for vaccines to be encouraged but not required for eligible students and staff.
Most teens heading back to school in the coming weeks will be unvaccinated against Covid-19, federal data suggests.
As many teens across the United States prepare for a return to school this fall, a new CNN analysis finds that less than a third of them are on track to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19 in the next two weeks.
About 7 million adolescents, ages 12 to 17, have been fully vaccinated so far, according to the latest data published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Fully vaccinated means two weeks since the completion of a second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine.
Based on recent trends, another 600,000 or so adolescents may be fully vaccinated in the next two weeks, around the time many of them may be heading back to school in August.
If that happens, then the number of adolescents fully vaccinated by that time will represent only about 30% of the roughly 25 million 12- to 17-year-olds in the United States.
And only about 38% -- 9.6 million adolescents -- would have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine by the time many schools start in two weeks, according to CNN estimates from CDC data. Many large school systems -- including Atlanta, Fort Myers, Florida, Flagstaff, Arizona, and the entire state of Hawaii -- start school in the first two weeks of August.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
