Coronavirus positives in Bradenton and Hillsborough Counties (Sarasota, Laurel: foods, poisonous)

[NSHL10]

Have you read that this new vaccine hasnt had clinical trials but they assume it should work similar to the previous vaccine? I heard it, but was not able to confirm it.
What is your view of the combination flu and new booster? I am hesitant worried about too much of an immune response

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

There is a new sub-variant called BA.2.75.2 which is the most immune evasive variant yet (even more than BA.5). As best as I can tell it hasn't been detected in FL yet (or the USA for that matter). So it's still too early to tell if this new subvariant will create a new wave. IMO it has the potential to create some kind of wave by winter.

Since we're into Fall and Winter is approaching I'm doing a new update today. Since my previous post about BA.2.75.2 the Covid virus has evolved further and it now seems likely that by Winter we'll be dealing with a newer and even more immune evasive strain called BQ1.1.

Thus I'm looking for a new wave in FL by Winter - however what's still up for debate is the size & seriousness of the wave. Even though BQ1.1 is more immune evasive - we now have more population based immunity (from previous Covid infections & vaccination). So my guess is that the BQ1.1 wave in FL will resemble what the BA.5 wave was in relation to the BA.2 wave.

New York’s struggle with the new Omicron variant BQ is trying to tell us something

https://fortune.com/well/2022/10/22/...ortunemagazine


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For Florida it isn't clear that a new wave has started in earnest yet - however the previous wave appears to be bottoming out.

Looking at the Walgreens chart for test positivity in Florida - it has the look that test positivity is currently bottoming out and starting to inch upwards. Same thing for test positivity at Sarasota Memorial Hospital.

https://www.walgreens.com/healthcare...covid-19-index


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It's looking like this Winter has the potential to be a virus triple threat between RSV, Flu, and Covid. Currently RSV is causing problems with children.

An 'unprecedented' rise in respiratory viruses in children is overwhelming some hospitals

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...als/index.html

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

Thus I'm looking for a new wave in FL by Winter - however what's still up for debate is the size & seriousness of the wave. Even though BQ1.1 is more immune evasive - we now have more population based immunity (from previous Covid infections & vaccination). So my guess is that the BQ1.1 wave in FL will resemble what the BA.5 wave was in relation to the BA.2 wave

Judging by 2 charts the new Covid wave I was expecting has started.

First let's examine FL Covid test positivity as conveyed by the chart on Walgreens:

https://www.walgreens.com/healthcare...covid-19-index

We see FL Covid test positivity is currently high and rising. Today it's listed at 32.7%. For perspective the BA.5 wave in FL peaked at 34.7% on August 13th. While the BA.1 wave in FL peaked at 38.4% on January 11th.

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Next we'll look at the most recent FL Covid weekly charts (7-day avg). Because many hospitals don't distinguish Covid as being with/for - perhaps a better indicator than admissions is ICU. In FL we currently have a rising ICU trend - but not yet at heights of previous waves.

See FL color-coded Covid chart here:

https://twitter.com/scottdavidherr/s...63676275052545

One Week Change
- Adult Admissions (7d avg) ↗ 28% to 227
- Adult Inpatients ↗ 16% to 1,309
- Adult ICU Patients ↗ 37% to 177

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As to what do I expect going forward:

I'm looking for a top to this current wave sometime near mid-January.
As to how bad will it get: IMO transmission will rival previous Omicron waves - while hospitalizations will likely be somewhat muted due to previous immunity (immunity wall).

I believe seniors and the immunocomprimised will be most at risk. Booster uptake has been low and there's quite a bit of waning immunity going on.

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This is an excellent article (out Dec. 3) from scientist Eric Topol with his thoughts about the current Covid wave:

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-new-covid-wave

[loves2read]

I had to see the Opthamologist for an eye problem this week and they were on a mask-voluntary policy….the guy at the desk wore none, the tech that did my initial workup did and the Opthamologist herself did—-
I didn’t but when I go to the PCP for checkup later this month and go back to the eye dr next wk I think I will wear a mask…
I am sure the SISD will not be requiring masks no matter how bad the wave gets this winter since the 3 new members are all GOP even if they didn’t claim it on their registration info

I checked TX today when I check FL and Texas’s rate has gone up more than FL—3%
Of course neither state’s stats include any home-based tests where people just stay home and don’t need treatment…

[wondermint2]

IMO this new variant will not cause more severe disease but it has the potential to have high transmission beacuse of the large number of new mutations. It's stiill very early days for this new variant.

A new COVID variant nicknamed "Pirola" is raising global alarm but don't freak out yet

For full article:

https://www.salon.com/2023/08/20/a-n...freak-out-yet/

Since the original virus that causes COVID, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in March 2020, it has mutated into dozens of variants, but most don't differ too much from the "parents" they evolved from. However, a new variant scientists are bringing to our attention is about as genetically different from Omicron as Omicron was from the original "wild type" strain first detected in Wuhan, China in late 2019.

On Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced it was tracking a new lineage of the virus, BA.2.86, following the World Health Organization (WHO) adding the strain to its list of "variants under monitoring." Originating in Israel, the variant has since appeared in Michigan in the U.S., three times in Denmark and once in the U.K., which has issued its own risk assessment.

Just six overall cases were reported worldwide as of Friday, but the fact that the variant, nicknamed "Pirola," has already spread across multiple continents is "concerning," said Dr. T. Ryan Gregory, an evolutionary and genome biologist at the University of Guelph in Canada.

"It's not clear how big the impact could be if it were to take off," Gregory told Salon in an email. "We do have some degree of population immunity against severe disease from vaccines and past infections, but the concern for quite some time is the potential for another 'Omicron-like event,' in which a very different new variant evolves and causes another major global wave."

While this new variant wasn't given a new Greek-letter distinction like Alpha, Delta or Omicron, it is very different from the most current Greek-letter family of variant descendants: Omicron. While it shares about 30 of the same spike mutations, which allow the virus to attach itself more easily to receptors in cells, it also has 30 unique ones.

Specifically, there are about 57 mutations of the spike protein, which potentially increase its ability to cause infection, said Dr. Rajendram Rajnarayanan, of the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Most variants have around 20 to 30 mutations, he added.

"This is definitely going to spread," Rajnarayanan told Salon in a phone interview. "This had all the necessary ingredients of being a successful lineage."

Scientists emphasized that this new variant isn't yet a cause for alarm. Still, COVID infections are increasing internationally, and cases in the U.S. have returned to what is considered "high," with 610,000 new infections per day. That's more than triple the level recorded a month ago, which was around 185,000 cases per day, according to wastewater data used to estimate the spread of disease. However, this uptick in cases is not due to the new variant yet. Other closely-related variants like EG.5 and XBB.1.16 make up an estimated one-third of cases, with the rest caused by a couple dozen other variants, according to CDC data released Friday.

That being said, there are likely additional cases of this new variant, Pirola, that haven't yet been detected because the cases identified were only the ones severe enough to be detected in hospitals.

[wondermint2]

Dr. Scott Gottlieb says he's "pretty concerned" about new COVID variant

Dr. Scott Gottlieb tells "Face the Nation" that he's "pretty concerned" about the new COVID variant BA 2.86. While it doesn't appear to be more dangerous than other strains, it could be more transmissible, he said.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4MysjqSvfk

[loves2read]

More transmissible has many factors to consider
Primary being that means people who have had CoVid/Omicrom and/or vaccines are likely to catch another case—
I have had it twice (once the Omicrom I am pretty sure) my husband has had it once
And we don’t seem to have any long-term side effects
Those are what worry me

There are still people who think their natural immunity has kept them safe but I am betting that if they never TESTED for CoVid they could very well have had it and just not known

I know someone who tested for flu AND CoVid at same time—
Plenty of those people around

I am in FL now full time and put no faith in the FL public health system to keep the public aware of what is actually happening
I follow some YouTube doctors who seem to know what is happening

I am going to check my supply of masks—and I need to order some tests (they aren’t free anymore)

I know the SISD won’t go back to requiring masks—they might even try to prohibit people from wearing them voluntarily
My doctor said no use to get a vax until the new one comes out and it likely won’t protect against the P-version that has started in Europe==so many people went traveling and are still doing so that it is likely other cases will be brought back to the US

I restarted my Instacart subscription thinking we will start ordering more deliveries from Costco
At WalMart you can order online and pickup at same price as store shopping—I have been happy with most of what the shoppers there pick and the delivery people are prompt and friendly
WalMart also started allowing you to opt-out of getting plastic bags—you just have to bring containers they can load the order into—
Worked well for us Friday

Need to order more hand sanitizer as well—

One way to track prevalence of CoVid is through sewage tests—and there are areas that have high levels —meaning numerous cases—of CoVid whether the people are needing hospitalization or not

[loves2read]

My sister lives north of San Antonio TX—another state w/poor public heath info/services
There is at least one ISD in south TX that has already closed school short term because of illness-
CoVid cases I am sure although I doubt if there was serious effort to test the ill or possible ill

I am glad I ordered my CoVid Tests
I might order more just because I anticipate shortages

[wondermint2]

I'm seeing mixed signals about the current Covid wave in Florida. It's getting harder to find local data as Sarasota Memorial Hospital discontinued their Covid updates. Testing is very low throughout Florida.

Here's what I see now for Florida:

1) Covid wastewater samples over the past six weeks are currently on the rise with 7 Florida locations showing increases, 1 location flat, and 1 location showing a decline.

https://biobot.io/data/

2) The Walgreens Covid data page shows the Florida test positivity rate near historic highs - however testing is low and the chart has the look that it might be topping out:

https://www.walgreens.com/healthcare...covid-19-index

[wondermint2]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

I'm seeing mixed signals about the current Covid wave in Florida. It's getting harder to find local data as Sarasota Memorial Hospital discontinued their Covid updates. Testing is very low throughout Florida.

Here's what I see now for Florida:

1) Covid wastewater samples over the past six weeks are currently on the rise with 7 Florida locations showing increases, 1 location flat, and 1 location showing a decline.

https://biobot.io/data/

2) The Walgreens Covid data page shows the Florida test positivity rate near historic highs - however testing is low and the chart has the look that it might be topping out:

https://www.walgreens.com/healthcare...covid-19-index

It's still too soon to get a firm handle on the growth advantage of the new BA.2.86 variant. IMO there will be a distinct growth advantage - but not enough to cause a big wave like the first Omicron variant did.

Eric Topol
@EricTopol

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...99332677542042
·
7h
On BA.2.86, the N of cases detected doubled yesterday (to 24); the places expanded;

@Asinickle1 calculated a weekly growth rate of 60% from Denmark data (where there are 10 cases). Await culture/lab results soon
Good summaries from a couple of days ago