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“Despite what you may have heard, Atlantic hurricanes are not becoming more frequent,” explains Danish economist Bjorn Lomborg in the Journal. “In fact, the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S. has declined slightly since 1900.”
There is widespread consensus that hurricanes are not increasing in frequency.
“[A] new statistical analysis of historical records and satellite data suggests that there aren’t actually more Atlantic hurricanes now than there were roughly 150 years ago, researchers report July 13, 2021, in Nature Communications,” reported Science News.
“[No,] there aren’t more powerful hurricanes either. The frequency Category 3 and above hurricanes making landfall since 1900 is also trending slightly down,” Lomborg writes. “A July Nature paper finds that the increases in strong hurricanes you’ve heard so much about are ‘not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s.’”
There are all sorts of charts with data showing hurricane seasons over the past 100 years vary in number of storms and intensity of those storms, going up and then down over the years rather than just trending upwards as some would have us believe.
Too bad you haven't posted a single link. Regardless, here's an entire documented thread explaining in detail hurricane rapid intensification and the increased frequency of such hurricanes.
Time says nine Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have hit the U.S. mainland in the last 50 years, AND SIX OF THESE NINE CAT 4 AND 5 HURRICANES HAVE MADE LANDFALL IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS.
The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and South Atlantic may have experienced more ocean warming than other hurricane regions, if your economist (not a hurricane scientist) Bjorn Lomborg actually is correct, and if the information you cited is current and not from 10 years ago or longer.
Just did some research on Lomborg. He apparently provides unscientific fodder for climate change deniers, perhaps such as you.
<<Lomborg's views and work have attracted scrutiny in the scientific community.[3][4][5] The majority of scientists reacted negatively to The Skeptical Environmentalist[6] and he was formally accused of scientific misconduct over the book; the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty concluded in an evaluation of the book that "one couldn't prove that Lomborg had deliberately been scientifically dishonest, although he had broken the rules of scientific practice in that he interpreted results beyond the conclusions of the authors he cited."[7] His positions on climate change have been challenged by experts and characterised as cherry picking.[5][8]>>
Yes but they state facts at times. Florida has always been hit with bad hurricanes. This is nothing new and not any worse than the past. That's one reason I think all the people moving down here is stupid.
Up until the 90s the area was mostly cheap shacks and trailer parks and nothing over one story. Now they are building four story tall apartment buildings. First of all the ground is sand. Secondly we get hit with tropical storms and hurricanes all the time. That's why the condo in Miami collapsed. It's built on sand. Taking a gamble building large buildings on sand. Miami actually has some bedrock which we don't have here.
The global warming stuff is easily proven nonsense but oft repeated. Not that there isn't some effect but carbon in the atmosphere is a fraction of one percent and burning fossil fuels leads to about a one degree warming. Not exactly Armageddon. And the biggest polluters like China are not asked to use clean energy and people like John Kerry flying around on a jet doesn't seem to concern him much. I'd be more worried about peak oil and urban heating effect. For some reason the media never discusses these real issues.
The urban heating effect is heating us up in areas like Florida. But it was hottest in the late 90s early 2000s. It would get up to 130 in summer as reported by a thermometer in town or bank sign. News always reported it as 98 degrees. It was hot this summer but not quite as hot as then. After that we had a cold spell for a few years with record lows and fish dying. Like 2010ish.
Despite the boiling heat they keep coming because a lot of people only live here half the year.
Your post is nonsense. Scientists can do meaningful research, NASA, NOAA, and other scientific agencies can post definitive reports, numerous scientific articles will refute posts such as yours, but still the Big Lie Climate Change propagandists will post undocumented opinions containing false statements.
For readers who prefer NASA over unsubstantiated statements posted by climate change denialists:
<<Air temperatures on Earth have been rising since the Industrial Revolution. While natural variability plays some part, the preponderance of evidence indicates that human activities—particularly emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases—are mostly responsible for making our planet warmer.
According to an ongoing temperature analysis led by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the average global temperature on Earth has increased by at least 1.1° Celsius (1.9° Fahrenheit) since 1880. The majority of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15 to 0.20°C per decade.>>
Some areas of the U.S. and the world are warming faster than others:
<< It's getting warmer: The Tampa Bay area's average temperature has increased by 3.4 degrees since the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970....
the U.S. is 2.6 degrees warmer now than on the first Earth Day. That's 0.1 degrees less than the global warming limit 196 countries, including the U.S., agreed to in the 2016 Paris Agreement, Climate Central reports.>>
When i went to the beach yesterday i noticed in Englewood, even the expensive condos near the beach too far worse wind damage than port Charlotte and Punta gorda. Why? Charley didn't destroy much in Englewood like it did in Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. So these newer buildings here In pc and pg had stricter building codes compared to the older buildings in Englewood.
If another major hurricane hits sw same places as Ian, even the millionaires will think twice. Building again and again is just a lot of headache. Might see more high rise condos then! Except for the parking garages and first floors they did well. Those can go for a heavy price tag too in Naples!!!
I'm pretty sure the discussion has come up time and again about how a hurricane might impact xyz area after a hurricane passed through. Looking at the historical and astronomical property value appreciation in this forum area, I doubt Ian is going to cause significant negative impact - not long term anyway.
By the end of the day, Florida is the only place in the continental USA with perfect weather in winter with beautiful water view all around that's still relatively affordable to all budgets. That's going to continue to appeal to a lot of people. Though there might be temporary slowing down while the area rebuilds, people are going to continue coming here. Those destroyed homes are going to be rebuilt up to code, and if anything, it will add value to the property.
I'm pretty sure the discussion has come up time and again about how a hurricane might impact xyz area after a hurricane passed through. Looking at the historical and astronomical property value appreciation in this forum area, I doubt Ian is going to cause significant negative impact - not long term anyway.
By the end of the day, Florida is the only place in the continental USA with perfect weather in winter with beautiful water view all around that's still relatively affordable to all budgets. That's going to continue to appeal to a lot of people. Though there might be temporary slowing down while the area rebuilds, people are going to continue coming here. Those destroyed homes are going to be rebuilt up to code, and if anything, it will add value to the property.
Precisely! Florida's real estate & tourism market is like the Energizer Bunny...boom...boom...boom. Sight pullback, follwed by another boom cycle.
Each time, there will be less damage, and the recovery will be faster, due to tougher building codes, and learning from prior storms.
Our home had zero damage, took 100+ winds, & I didn't even have the Hurricane shutters deployed. Why? It was built to 2018 codes, is cinder block construction, hip design roof, flat cement tiles, & 8 miles inland on a "X" lot, & no trees close enough to the structure to damage it.
I learned from past storms, and made the appropriate decisions. More and more will do the same as the decades and storm roll by.
Precisely! Florida's real estate & tourism market is like the Energizer Bunny...boom...boom...boom. Sight pullback, follwed by another boom cycle.
Each time, there will be less damage, and the recovery will be faster, due to tougher building codes, and learning from prior storms.
Our home had zero damage, took 100+ winds, & I didn't even have the Hurricane shutters deployed. Why? It was built to 2018 codes, is cinder block construction, hip design roof, flat cement tiles, & 8 miles inland on a "X" lot, & no trees close enough to the structure to damage it.
I learned from past storms, and made the appropriate decisions. More and more will do the same as the decades and storm roll by.
If you lived 20 miles south you'd been regretting not putting the shutters up! Here in Punta Gorda winds were much higher. When I went out in the eye I found pieces of picket fencing and other large projectiles that would have went right through a house without shutters.
Englewood has some really bad wind damage, especially the southern half in Charlotte County. Looked worse than Punta Gorda. Placida had the worst winds I think in the area.
I'm close to the Punta Gorda airport. Their highest gust was before the main part of the first half of the eyewall was 126mph before instrument failure. Likely in the stronger backside the gusts probably reach 150 in my location. Sustained I'd say 125. Being inland we didn't get the strongest winds like Sanibel , Englewood or Boca Grande.
If you lived 20 miles south you'd been regretting not putting the shutters up! Here in Punta Gorda winds were much higher. When I went out in the eye I found pieces of picket fencing and other large projectiles that would have went right through a house without shutters.
Englewood has some really bad wind damage, especially the southern half in Charlotte County. Looked worse than Punta Gorda. Placida had the worst winds I think in the area.
I'm close to the Punta Gorda airport. Their highest gust was before the main part of the first half of the eyewall was 126mph before instrument failure. Likely in the stronger backside the gusts probably reach 150 in my location. Sustained I'd say 125. Being inland we didn't get the strongest winds like Sanibel , Englewood or Boca Grande.
Charlotte County is still without power.
No date for when schools will reopen.
Just awful. The amount of random junk in our yard from the winds was incredible. Somebody's gutter, pieces of fences, pool toys, garbage, branches from trees from not next to us neighbors. And some weird Styrofoam junks all over the neighborhood. Nobody has a clue what they were. I wonder where the neighbors shed panels I saw get peeled and fly away landed.
I cannot imagine not putting up shutters for a major hurricane. Honestly, it's incredibly foolish and dangerous, and nothing to brag about. We know someone who had a window smashed and the hurricane was inside the house.
Just awful. The amount of random junk in our yard from the winds was incredible. Somebody's gutter, pieces of fences, pool toys, garbage, branches from trees from not next to us neighbors. And some weird Styrofoam junks all over the neighborhood. Nobody has a clue what they were. I wonder where the neighbors shed panels I saw get peeled and fly away landed.
I cannot imagine not putting up shutters for a major hurricane. Honestly, it's incredibly foolish and dangerous, and nothing to brag about. We know someone who had a window smashed and the hurricane was inside the house.
According to FPL 99 percent of the county has power.
Agree about the random junk though. Found stuff all over the place. Those plastic picket fences are not anchored down. That's why they fly around. I found one in my yard. had I not have had my car in a neighbors hanger at the airport it might have been totaled by it. I think it came from a house all the way on the other side of the sub division. When I was in the eye walking around I took it and put it in my garage.
Once a window goes all bets are off.
Even right now if we had a hurricane warning and just a cat1 I would put up the shutters because of all the debris laying around. 80mph gusts would easily blow large branches loose around. Hopefully done for the year because I really don't want to deal with another one.
Like lets say in Nov we get another Eta type storm.
I'm pretty sure the discussion has come up time and again about how a hurricane might impact xyz area after a hurricane passed through. Looking at the historical and astronomical property value appreciation in this forum area, I doubt Ian is going to cause significant negative impact - not long term anyway.
By the end of the day, Florida is the only place in the continental USA with perfect weather in winter with beautiful water view all around that's still relatively affordable to all budgets. That's going to continue to appeal to a lot of people. Though there might be temporary slowing down while the area rebuilds, people are going to continue coming here. Those destroyed homes are going to be rebuilt up to code, and if anything, it will add value to the property.
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus
Precisely! Florida's real estate & tourism market is like the Energizer Bunny...boom...boom...boom. Sight pullback, follwed by another boom cycle.
Each time, there will be less damage, and the recovery will be faster, due to tougher building codes, and learning from prior storms.
Our home had zero damage, took 100+ winds, & I didn't even have the Hurricane shutters deployed. Why? It was built to 2018 codes, is cinder block construction, hip design roof, flat cement tiles, & 8 miles inland on a "X" lot, & no trees close enough to the structure to damage it.
I learned from past storms, and made the appropriate decisions. More and more will do the same as the decades and storm roll by.
Both of these posts have points that are arguable/defensible but also ignore or leave unsaid several variables that factor into the equation.
Is this storm going to have a significant negative impact?
It wouldn’t if it were just one storm, but since it’s the second major intensity storm to hit within 50 miles in 5 years you have more evidence of frequency. Add to that the behavior of this storm (settling in just after landfall for a five hour sit & spin) you now have a larger perceived threat.
This is just one opinion but the difference in the degree of destruction to the area between Irma and Ian probably is related to how long the structures were exposed to the eye wall and the fatigue caused over that length of time. Had Ian traveled through faster perhaps the damage would have been less severe. This flies in the face of the comment “there will be less damage, and the recovery will be faster”. Clearly Ian did more damage than Irma to the coast and recovery will take longer.
If this “rapid intensification and slower movement” is the new trend for gulf storms then common sense indicates the area may lose some of its luster for living full time.
While the state/area will still be a haven in the winter months as stated, there may be less interest among those who considered year round living upon retirement. Many snowbirds might re-think those plans now. Remember the adage “one is an accident, two is a trend”
Neither post considers the current and growing presence of investors throughout SWFL but they are an ever more significant cause of the yearly value increases in homes. Investor demand is based on things like profit, and appreciation, and those are more at risk if properties get more costly in both price and maintenance and insurance and cost to rebuild. These hardly ever decrease. No one knows the actual number of homes that are only seasonally occupied or in the hands of entirely absentee owners, but it’s a percentage that may decline due to ever increasing costs of purchase, upkeep, and especially insurance.
We have always been a boom & bust housing market, but not usually based on physical storms but economic ones. Many doomsayers are predicting a large economic storm that will have effects globally over the next five years. They believe all asset classes are in a bubble, not just housing. For the majority of those who’s earning ability is passed and rely solely on accrued wealth and investment income any large downturn in their net worth will make them reevaluate their own costs to savings ratio. If your 401K becomes a 201K like happened in 2008 your only way to maintain your standard of living is reducing costs, and costs are greatest in housing. Both the type of housing and more so the location it occupies.
For those already here a drastic reduction in net worth may cause a flight from SWFL when other areas become more attractive simply because selling your home and moving (like the flight from California trend) immediately increases your wealth to expense ratio. This may already be happening to a certain degree but will accelerate if we do experience another 2008.
For those considering coming here in the future, another 2008 type of crash will prohibit the thought of SWFL living for a prolonged life expectancy. Many will be forced to simply cross it off their list of possibilities.
Lastly, though I wish it were true that people learn from past disasters and build in precautions to make sure they have less and less chance of reoccurring, this is not what I’ve seen in real life. If it was people would not resist leaving when told “this is a mandatory evacuation zone” such as those on Sanibel, or those fixed income retirees who still insist in buying mobile homes no matter how old and there increasing inability to insure. Unfortunately, people learn best through experience not from others relating their horror stories past or present. If they did we would already be much farther along with storm worthiness and already have seen a reduction in damages from each successive storm.
According to FPL 99 percent of the county has power.
Agree about the random junk though. Found stuff all over the place. Those plastic picket fences are not anchored down. That's why they fly around. I found one in my yard. had I not have had my car in a neighbors hanger at the airport it might have been totaled by it. I think it came from a house all the way on the other side of the sub division. When I was in the eye walking around I took it and put it in my garage.
Once a window goes all bets are off.
Even right now if we had a hurricane warning and just a cat1 I would put up the shutters because of all the debris laying around. 80mph gusts would easily blow large branches loose around. Hopefully done for the year because I really don't want to deal with another one.
Like lets say in Nov we get another Eta type storm.
Ha, that's a round up number. Friends there got power Sunday night, 11 days after the hurricane. They said a lot of people still don't have power. Power is what curfews are generally based on. County STILL has a curfew. We can draw our own conclusions from that.
Good thing your car wasn't at Venice Municipal Airport. I believe two hangers were completely destroyed. Ripped apart and thrown about like confetti. Planes "inside" sustained damage as well.
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