Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?) (linux, power, TV)
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Also we're approaching the theoretical limit of our current two-bit computer technology, and any further advances will rely on quantum computing, which is only beginning to be understood. It'll be hard to predict a timetable for that development.
There's been much thought that quantum computers would work thousands of times faster than classical computers. This article was released today. The D-Wave Two, the first commercial quantum computer, was put to the test. The D-Wave Two quantum computer was no faster than a classical PC.
That doesn't mean they can't improve in future developments, but for now, it's off to a start that was less than expected.
Also we're approaching the theoretical limit of our current two-bit computer technology, and any further advances will rely on quantum computing, which is only beginning to be understood. It'll be hard to predict a timetable for that development.
You are correct that we are coming to the end of the integrated circuit as will reach its limit of about 5nm in the early 2020's. However, I have posted a few articles that talk about the new circuit coming called the 3D self organizing molecular circuit. It will be ready for prime time sometime between 2015 and 2020 well before the integrated circuit comes to a end guaranteeing computers will continue to advance exponentially.
Quantum Computers Still Aren’t Faster Than Regular Old Computers
Quote:
A speed test between quantum and classical computers has ended in a draw. New research suggests the commercial quantum computer sold by Canadian company D-Wave Systems isn’t faster than the PC on your desk.
Quantum computers are something I know very little about. Time Magazine did have a story on D-Wave earlier this year and it was interesting.
This is from Time:
Are D-Wave's machines quantum computers? fortunately this is one of those scenarios where an answer will in fact become apparent at some point in the next five or so years, as D-Wave punches out a couple more generations of computers and better benchmarking techniques evolve and we either do see a significant quantum speedup or we don't.
Quantum computers are something I know very little about. Time Magazine did have a story on D-Wave earlier this year and it was interesting.
This is from Time:
Are D-Wave's machines quantum computers? fortunately this is one of those scenarios where an answer will in fact become apparent at some point in the next five or so years, as D-Wave punches out a couple more generations of computers and better benchmarking techniques evolve and we either do see a significant quantum speedup or we don't.
This is one area that no predictions can be made. It will be interesting to see if this company is successful or not in the next few years.
Not surprised considering you tend to look for articles that only adhere to your predictions. Though last time I posted an article about quantum computers being able to solve problems in days when it would take super computers millions of years to complete you seemed rather excited about it so its surprising you didn't look further into it.
Not surprised considering you tend to look for articles that only adhere to your predictions. Though last time I posted an article about quantum computers being able to solve problems in days when it would take super computers millions of years to complete you seemed rather excited about it so its surprising you didn't look further into it.
I understand the basic theory behind quantum computers and how they would change the computer industry. What I am saying is while D-Wave make a compelling case that they developed a quantum conputer, and to be honest I did buy stock in the company, I don't think at this point anyone can say for certain if they did or not. We should know in the next few years.
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Quantum computers may be eventually thousands of times faster than the fastest theoretically possible ordinary processors, but they won't be completely reliable, since quantum calculations are statistical rather than certain ..... in fact they might turn out to be a bit ornery on occasion, perhaps a little like human consciousness.
Quantum computers may be eventually thousands of times faster than the fastest theoretically possible ordinary processors, but they won't be completely reliable, since quantum calculations are statistical rather than certain ..... in fact they might turn out to be a bit ornery on occasion, perhaps a little like human consciousness.
So far none of the projections about how computers advance include quantum computers. That is a question I would like to ask Ray Kurzweil about if I had the chance.
This is what the death of Moore’s law looks like: EUV rollout slowed, 450mm wafers halted, and an uncertain path beyond
This is what the death of Moore’s law looks like: EUV rollout slowed, 450mm wafers halted, and an uncertain path beyond 14nm
Quote:
If EUV and 450mm wafers don’t happen at 10nm, the “what happens next?” roadmap is a grab-bag of unresolved difficulties and potentially terrible economics. (Feature story: The future of CPU scaling: Exploring options on the cutting edge.) There are no “easy” problems left to solve, but the consequence of betting on the wrong technology could be cataclysmically expensive in terms of lost market share and enormous R&D costs. No one can afford to be wrong — but with costs skyrocketing across the board, it’s not clear if anyone can afford to be right.
Update: We spoke with ASML today, and the company remains committed to improving source power on its EUV hardware. It readily acknowledges that source power scaling to-date has not scaled as quickly as previous roadmaps predicted, but believes it has a path forward for solving these problems and deploying the technology commercially below the 14nm node.
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What Does Moore’s Law Mean For the Rest of Society?
