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I first heard of singularity several years ago after watching a documentary on Ray Kurzweil. I understand the concept completely. It is actually quite simple. As I pointed out before, it is logically flawed and is an overly generous take on exponential growth. There is no way to tell if the growth curve will continue or plateau. If you look at recent growth, (i.e. the last 50 years), then yes you can say things may grow to the point of singularity. However if you look at historical growth (over the last several hundred thousand years), this type of growth has never been sustained. The industrial revolution was what..50 years? Modern micro-computer circuits..(1970-2020) 50 years? Cell phone/nanotechnology..(1990s to 2040s?) another 50 years?
What is the end point of the current paradigm? Computers and circuits in everyone's brains? Completely autonomous robots who can think independently? A fusion of human and artificial consciousness? We are already 20 some-odd years into the current paradigm and we are nowhere close to any of this.
I think you have to realize Human have done more in 100 years than in there entire existence.
I first heard of singularity several years ago after watching a documentary on Ray Kurzweil. I understand the concept completely. It is actually quite simple. As I pointed out before, it is logically flawed and is an overly generous take on exponential growth. There is no way to tell if the growth curve will continue or plateau. If you look at recent growth, (i.e. the last 50 years), then yes you can say things may grow to the point of singularity. However if you look at historical growth (over the last several hundred thousand years), this type of growth has never been sustained. The industrial revolution was what..50 years? Modern micro-computer circuits..(1970-2020) 50 years? Cell phone/nanotechnology..(1990s to 2040s?) another 50 years?
What is the end point of the current paradigm? Computers and circuits in everyone's brains? Completely autonomous robots who can think independently? A fusion of human and artificial consciousness? We are already 20 some-odd years into the current paradigm and we are nowhere close to any of this.
I think you have to realize Human have done more in 100 years than in there entire existence. Now the private citizens can fund projects like governments do it is on.
I first heard of singularity several years ago after watching a documentary on Ray Kurzweil. I understand the concept completely. It is actually quite simple. As I pointed out before, it is logically flawed and is an overly generous take on exponential growth. There is no way to tell if the growth curve will continue or plateau. If you look at recent growth, (i.e. the last 50 years), then yes you can say things may grow to the point of singularity. However if you look at historical growth (over the last several hundred thousand years), this type of growth has never been sustained. The industrial revolution was what..50 years? Modern micro-computer circuits..(1970-2020) 50 years? Cell phone/nanotechnology..(1990s to 2040s?) another 50 years?
What is the end point of the current paradigm? Computers and circuits in everyone's brains? Completely autonomous robots who can think independently? A fusion of human and artificial consciousness? We are already 20 some-odd years into the current paradigm and we are nowhere close to any of this.
Paradigms come and go but computers keep advancing exponentially. In fact since the first modern computer was built in 1890 there have been 5 paradigms.
Every time a paradigm could not be improved upon we simply moved to the next paradigm. That is going to happen by the 2020's to the current paradigm and we will move to the 6th one. 3D self organizing molecular circuits and computers will keep advancing exponentially.
I think you have to realize Human have done more in 100 years than in there entire existence. Now the private citizens can fund projects like governments do it is on.
Science and technology have made significant strides in the last century and will continue to do so. I am not debating this. I just do not think it will advance to the point of singularity by 2030-2045. Our lives were not too much different 60 years ago compared to today. We were still born, grew up and played as kids, went to school, started a career, got married, start raising our own families, pursued our hobbies, etc. Science and technology have improved the efficiency and quality of life, however things are still very much the same. I read an article from the 1950's-60's where they predicted that by the 21st century we would no longer be working and we would have flying cars. The notion of singularity goes beyond even this.
Paradigms come and go but computers keep advancing exponentially. In fact since the first modern computer was built in 1890 there have been 5 paradigms.
Every time a paradigm could not be improved upon we simply moved to the next paradigm. That is going to happen by the 2020's to the current paradigm and we will move to the 6th one. 3D self organizing molecular circuits and computers will keep advancing exponentially.
While I concede that this is a possibility, the more logical possibility is that this will not happen. Again I ask, what do you think the endpoint is?
EDIT: just re-read some of your old posts which answered my question
While I concede that this is a possibility, the more logical possibility is that this will not happen.
So you agree that computers have been advancing exponentially since the first modern computer was built yet you think its suddenly going to stop? That goes back to what I say and how its hard for our minds to comprehend computers advancing exponentially because we are not programed to think that way so it seems counter intuitive to us. When I think back to the changes I saw since I was in college it blows my mind and when I think about what is coming not in 100 or 1000 years but 10 to 15 it blows my mind even more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swack
Again I ask, what do you think the endpoint is?
I talk about 2030 a lot and that is because I think the "average person" like me will think that is when the singularity starts because by then we will have merged with computers enough to cause major changes in how we live. However Ray Kurzweil, being the engineer he is, goes with 2045 and he is right as well. That is because by then 1 computer that costs $1,000 dollars will be a billion times more intelligent then all the humans on the planet today combined. The implications of that are something we can not comprehend today so at that point all the current models break down. Why do I bring that up now? Because its impossible for us to look beyond that date, 2045, with any accuracy and answer questions like when will computers stop advancing exponentially. We know it will be well past 2045 but will it be a thousand years? Million years? Billion years? Longer? After 2045 there are to many variables that with our current technology and models we simply can't answer.
So you agree that computers have been advancing exponentially since the first modern computer was built yet you think its suddenly going to stop? That goes back to what I say and how its hard for our minds to comprehend computers advancing exponentially because we are not programed to think that way so it seems counter intuitive to us. When I think back to the changes I saw since I was in college it blows my mind and when I think about what is coming not in 100 or 1000 years but 10 to 15 it blows my mind even more.
Let's say Usain Bolt sets a new world record with a 100m dash time of 9.58s. This new time has been an improvement from past runs however is not exponential. If we extrapolate this, should we have a human in the next 70 years who can run the 100m in under 9s?
Human growth occurs exponentially at puberty. If you were to take a growth chart of a teenager and extrapolated the curve, they should be 10 feet tall and 350 lbs at 20 years of age.
Bacteria grows exponentially when placed in a petri dish with the appropriate growth medium. While they grow exponentially, they eventually are restricted by the limitations of the space and the amount of medium. Their growth falls off dramatically. However if you extrapolated their growth during the exponential phase, they would cover the entire planet in a matter of days.
The human population has grown exponentially over the last century, with 7 billion people as of 2012. If we extrapolate this, should we have 16 billion people by 2100?
These are real life applications of growth. You ask if I think the exponential growth of computing power will suddenly stop. No, but there will be some sort of constraint that slows it down.
Let's say Usain Bolt sets a new world record with a 100m dash time of 9.58s. This new time has been an improvement from past runs however is not exponential. If we extrapolate this, should we have a human in the next 70 years who can run the 100m in under 9s?
Human growth occurs exponentially at puberty. If you were to take a growth chart of a teenager and extrapolated the curve, they should be 10 feet tall and 350 lbs at 20 years of age.
Bacteria grows exponentially when placed in a petri dish with the appropriate growth medium. While they grow exponentially, they eventually are restricted by the limitations of the space and the amount of medium. Their growth falls off dramatically. However if you extrapolated their growth during the exponential phase, they would cover the entire planet in a matter of days.
The human population has grown exponentially over the last century, with 7 billion people as of 2012. If we extrapolate this, should we have 16 billion people by 2100?
These are real life applications of growth. You ask if I think the exponential growth of computing power will suddenly stop. No, but there will be some sort of constraint that slows it down.
Those are all examples of what I talk about when I say human minds are use to project linearly not exponentially because most of the things in our lives advance linearly or if they do advance exponentially its only for a short time. So now that we have information technology and it does advance exponentially its seems very counter intuitive but there is a logical reason it does.
Let me explain it using computers:
You take the first generation of computers and build the second generation twice as fast.
Then you take the second generation of computers and build the third again twice as fast.
Then you take the third generation of computers and build the forth twice as fast.
I can keep going on but that is the general reason why information technology advances exponentially and why it only applies to information technology.
Now there is another thing that happens as well. As computers get more advanced a generation becomes faster. For example in 1900 it took 3 years to double computers. By 1960 it took 2 years. In 2000 it took 12 months and today its less then 12 months. Once we reach 2030 and especially 2045 the time it takes for a generation to pass will be extremely fast so fast that unless we merge with the technology we will not be able to keep up.
On a personal note I knew of More's law since the early to mid 1980's. However like most people I did not think about it past a few years. So in 1991 when I graduated form high school and went to college I was blind sided by the new lap top computers. I rememebr when I went with my dad to get a computers I was amazed by the new computers and had to have one. Then once I was in college I started to see the internet when I was a senor but did not really use it till I graduated in 1996 and again was blind sided by it. I remember being at home up all hours of the night using my new toy. Then I went to grad school and was again blind sided by new technology this time the smart phone. I remember when my friend got one I was like yea good for you whats the big deal so it has a CPU? Shortly after that is when I first heard about the singularity and implications of computers advancing expinintially not for a few years but a few decades and it all made sense to me. At that point I told myself I would never be bilnd sided by new technoogy again. So today when most people are amazed by wearable computers I saw it coming a few years ago and was telling people. Now today I am talking about how in the next decade computers will go from wearable to inside us and the impact it will have on our health and intelligence will be nothing short of life changing. So when most people are blind sided by it in the 2020's I will not but instead be ready for it and completely accepting of it.
Fda approves brain implant to monitor and autonomously respond to epileptic seizures
I post about how computers merging with humans will be the singularity. Well another example of it came across my Facebook so I decied to post it here.
As I always say this is just the start wait 15 years and see how computers have merged with humans.
In recent years, brain implants have been used to control tremors from Parkinson’s Disease and help quadriplegics move robotic arms. We can now add epilepsy to the list—a brain implant for patients suffering epileptic seizures was recently approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Epilepsy is caused by a kind of electrical storm in the brain that temporarily shorts out the system. Often, such events are associated with temporary loss of consciousness and bouts of muscle convulsions (seizures) lasting a minute or two.
The NeuroPace RNS Stimulator is surgically implanted within the skull and connected by wires and electrodes to the regions of the brain thought responsible for the seizures. The neurostimulator actively monitors electrical activity in these regions and autonomously delivers “imperceptible” electrical stimulation to normalize irregularities.
Two good stories on how technology is helping the medical community.
The first is on stem cells. In the future this will be one of the reasons we live a very long time.
A new procedure designed to deliver stem cells to the heart to repair damaged muscle and arteries in the most minimally invasive way possible has been performed for the first time by Amit Patel, M.D., director of Clinical Regenerative Medicine and Tissue Engineering and an associate professor in the Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery at the University of Utah School of Medicine.
Patel started investigating cell and gene-based therapies for the treatment of heart disease 12 years ago, but only recently received FDA approval to try the therapy on Lively, who was the first of several patients anxious to receive the treatment.
More than 6 million people are currently living with heart failure. As the condition progresses, patients’ options are usually limited to a heart transplant or assist devices, such as an artificial heart. Patel wanted to find a way to intervene in the progression of heart failure before a patient advanced to the point of needing a heart transplant or device.
The second is on how the are now using Google glasses in the operating room. This is now in the future when technology keeps getting smaller and more powerful it will have a even bigger impact in medicine and health. Part of the definition of the singularity.
Hands-free devices like Google Glass can be really transformative when the hands they free are those of a surgeon. And leading hospitals, including Stanford and the University of California at San Francisco, are beginning to use Glass in the operating room.
In October, UCSF’s Pierre Theodore, a cardiothoracic surgeon, became the first doctor in the United States to obtain Institutional Review Board approval to use the device to assist him during surgery. Theodore pre-loads onto Glass the scans of images of the patient taken just before surgery and consults them during the operation.
“To be able to have those X-rays directly in your field without having to leave the operating room or to log on to another system elsewhere, or to turn yourself away from the patient in order to divert your attention, is very helpful in terms of maintaining your attention where it should be, which is on the patient 100 percent of the time,” said Theodore.
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Fda approves brain implant to monitor and autonomously respond to epileptic seizures
