“Not going backwards” is “good news” (Seattle: unemployment, tax)

[Blondebaerde]

Originally Posted by NJguy1986

So the whole state is PAUSED on opening up, but we’re supposed to feel good because “no regions can go backwards”

First off, I do NOT believe or trust that Inslee won’t move the state backwards again into a lockdown if the “science” tells him

Secondly, are we supposed to be ‘grateful’ to be at 25%? After staying at 0%-25% for the past year now?

And before you say “the lockdowns have worked” there are numerous other states that have not locked down or not as drastically and are doing well economically, with their citizen’s mental health, and with combating the virus

Not sure why topics like this are re-opened other than frustration. I'm not taking a Pro/Con stance to lockdowns in this thread, it will go 20 pages of name-calling and end up NOWHERE.

All I'll remark here is thus:

1. The Plague is frustrating on economic and social levels, in so many ways. "The truth" how to handle best is a moving target for-sure.
2. IMO, the data supports that it won't be "mostly over" until c. Fall 2021, that being full vaccinations for all. Please do your own research on that topic though...it's a contentious subject after all and I'm a layman not MD or member of the CDC. My rough analogy: the United States is a monster that slowly awakens. Once awake, no country can bring so much force/pressure/industrial capacity to bear...except perhaps China. We are ramping fast but will take months more.
3. Regions and countries CAN go backwards, pretty obviously. There are also obviously new variants of the Plague out there, the UK variant and LA variant being two I've read just a little about. That may/may not result in what we may call "retrograde" steps for complex reasons related to communicability and virulence.

A very complex situation scientifically, with human factors which means "all bets are off". I'm out, thanks for posting /adios thread.

[usernametaken]

Wish we could switch governor with TX or MS or FL:

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/st...46908480815106

https://twitter.com/tatereeves/statu...49019935412228

The original hero:

https://www.wfla.com/community/healt...ress-covid-19/

[NJguy1986]

Originally Posted by usernametaken

Wish we could switch governor with TX or MS or FL:

https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/st...46908480815106

https://twitter.com/tatereeves/statu...49019935412228

The original hero:

https://www.wfla.com/community/healt...ress-covid-19/

I would like to hear Inslee explain the science on this

[NJguy1986]

Originally Posted by Blondebaerde

Not sure why topics like this are re-opened other than frustration. I'm not taking a Pro/Con stance to lockdowns in this thread, it will go 20 pages of name-calling and end up NOWHERE.

All I'll remark here is thus:

1. The Plague is frustrating on economic and social levels, in so many ways. "The truth" how to handle best is a moving target for-sure.
2. IMO, the data supports that it won't be "mostly over" until c. Fall 2021, that being full vaccinations for all. Please do your own research on that topic though...it's a contentious subject after all and I'm a layman not MD or member of the CDC. My rough analogy: the United States is a monster that slowly awakens. Once awake, no country can bring so much force/pressure/industrial capacity to bear...except perhaps China. We are ramping fast but will take months more.
3. Regions and countries CAN go backwards, pretty obviously. There are also obviously new variants of the Plague out there, the UK variant and LA variant being two I've read just a little about. That may/may not result in what we may call "retrograde" steps for complex reasons related to communicability and virulence.

A very complex situation scientifically, with human factors which means "all bets are off". I'm out, thanks for posting /adios thread.

Stay for the conversation!

[fnh]

I am a Texas resident. Nearly 50,000 people have died of COVID in Texas alone, one tenth the total deaths in the US and ten times the number of deaths in Washington State. Houston's Texas Medical Center overfloweth with all of its ICU beds full and even its added pandemic ICU beds are at 82% capacity (nearly 2,000 ICU beds in just one hospital district in a single city). Texas ranks third to last in COVID vaccination rate and, despite having already very feeble restrictions, Texas posted one of the worst 2020 economic outcomes among the states.* Rational Texans are simply not going out and spending money because they are hunkered down avoiding fools who deny the threat of COVID and bleat uneducated nonsense about 'freedoms'. Already businesses are saying, not so fast. Ignoring COVID does not make it go away, it makes your customers go away.

Abbott is an incompetent, flip-flopping fish of a politician. This latest bone-headed move of his is just a deflection from Texas's catastrophic failure to provide basic first-world services to its residents during the recent winter storm, a humiliation on the world stage which laid bare the consequences of mythical free market idolatry. (But note well just how fast the state of Texas sought a handout from the American taxpayers. Which Biden to his credit approved immediately and quietly without any demand for public ring-kissing or b**t-licking.)

*(Washington State, by the way, did just fine economically and even saw an increase in revenues while maintaining one of the lowest death rates in the country. The results speak for themselves.)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/b...sultPosition=1

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by fnh

*(Washington State, by the way, did just fine economically and even saw an increase in revenues while maintaining one of the lowest death rates in the country. The results speak for themselves.)
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/business/covid-state-tax-revenue.html?searchResultPosition=1[/url]

My 2020 revenue was 1/20th of the prior year.

[jerzdevil]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

My 2020 revenue was 1/20th of the prior year.

There's the NY Times, then there's reality. Wall St, then there's main street.

[flyingsaucermom]

Originally Posted by fnh

I am a Texas resident. Nearly 50,000 people have died of COVID in Texas alone, one tenth the total deaths in the US and ten times the number of deaths in Washington State. Houston's Texas Medical Center overfloweth with all of its ICU beds full and even its added pandemic ICU beds are at 82% capacity (nearly 2,000 ICU beds in just one hospital district in a single city). Texas ranks third to last in COVID vaccination rate and, despite having already very feeble restrictions, Texas posted one of the worst 2020 economic outcomes among the states.* Rational Texans are simply not going out and spending money because they are hunkered down avoiding fools who deny the threat of COVID and bleat uneducated nonsense about 'freedoms'. Already businesses are saying, not so fast. Ignoring COVID does not make it go away, it makes your customers go away.

Abbott is an incompetent, flip-flopping fish of a politician. This latest bone-headed move of his is just a deflection from Texas's catastrophic failure to provide basic first-world services to its residents during the recent winter storm, a humiliation on the world stage which laid bare the consequences of mythical free market idolatry. (But note well just how fast the state of Texas sought a handout from the American taxpayers. Which Biden to his credit approved immediately and quietly without any demand for public ring-kissing or b**t-licking.)

*(Washington State, by the way, did just fine economically and even saw an increase in revenues while maintaining one of the lowest death rates in the country. The results speak for themselves.)
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/business/covid-state-tax-revenue.html?searchResultPosition=1[/url]

BTW: I looked up the death rate/infections of Texas and Washington.

TX: .0166
WA: .0146

The difference is .002%

I realize we are talking about people, not apples, but if we were talking about apples most people would find this a non issue.

We're not talking about percentage pointS, not even tens of one percentage, but hundredths of one percentage point.

(I'm using coronavirus meter)

What this tells us is the amazing statement that Texas has a sh!tload more people and infections than Washington, but all the same it's only a few hundredths of one percent more deadly.

[Transmition]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

What this tells us is the amazing statement that Texas has a sh!tload more people and infections than Washington, but all the same it's only a few hundredths of one percent more deadly.

So that tells you that the health system in Washington works slightly better than Texas, but it glosses over the fact that last week Washington has a covid death rate of 1.8 people per 100,000 and dropping, compared to Texas with 5.5 and rising (almost doubled from the previous week).



So which of those states would you rather be in the grocery stores of right now?

[fnh]

Originally Posted by flyingsaucermom

BTW: I looked up the death rate/infections of Texas and Washington.

TX: .0166
WA: .0146

The difference is .002%

I realize we are talking about people, not apples, but if we were talking about apples most people would find this a non issue.

We're not talking about percentage pointS, not even tens of one percentage, but hundredths of one percentage point.

(I'm using coronavirus meter)

What this tells us is the amazing statement that Texas has a sh!tload more people and infections than Washington, but all the same it's only a few hundredths of one percent more deadly.

Sigh, "death rate/infections" is the case-fatality rate which tells you little to nothing about community spread. The figure instead reflects the effectiveness of individual patient treatment. The case-fatality rate in the US has hovered ~1.8% since last summer - meaning, for every 100 people testing positive for COVID, nearly two people will die. The case-fatality rate can go up with increased hospital burden, as hospitals become overwhelmed to the point they can no longer treat individual patients optimally. This is is the scenario that public health officials most want to avoid, and not just for COVID patients. Case-fatality rates increase for ALL illnesses and accidents when hospitals and staff are overburdened.


The COVID death rate in Texas is 153 per 100,000 people.
Current COVID positivity rate in Texas is 12.31%

The COVID death rate in Washington is 66 deaths per 100,000.
Current COVID positivity rate in Washington is 3.59%.

Sources: Johns Hopkins, NY Times