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Dr. Michael Mills, an Associate Professor of Psychology at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, has put together some truly impressive presentations about Peak Oil that are a valuable resource for preppers:
His "heads up for humanity" Peak Oil Overview mixes text, graphics, and humor to get the point across, and I found lots of information for meeting the upcoming "personal challenges" if the predicted energy famine causes a catastrophic collapse.
He even paraphrased that famous scene from "Dirty Harry" when Clint Eastwood is pointing the gun at the bad guy:
I know what you’re thinking: 'Oil prices are rising. Have we already passed peak oil? Or do we still have five more years?'
Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I’ve kinda lost track myself. But being that oil is the oxygen of modern civilization, and that no combination of alternative energy sources can provide as much energy or scale up in time, you’ve got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well do ya, punk?
I'm not sure I accept the premise of 'peak oil'. It may sound sacreligious to some, that I would even question it. But I do. Just as I do not accept the premise behind global warming.
Any time the powers-that-be go out of their way to drill something into our heads, I get suspicious. Who stands to make money off of my buying into this?
Sad, isn't it, that some of us are driven to feel this way because of all the scams and swindles that have been perpetrated on We The People, in the name of greater profits for the well-connected.
I'm not sure I accept the premise of 'peak oil'. It may sound sacreligious to some, that I would even question it. But I do. Just as I do not accept the premise behind global warming.
Any time the powers-that-be go out of their way to drill something into our heads, I get suspicious. Who stands to make money off of my buying into this?
Sad, isn't it, that some of us are driven to feel this way because of all the scams and swindles that have been perpetrated on We The People, in the name of greater profits for the well-connected.
Me either. Three years ago I posted something on the Bakken discovery that was just breaking, and was pooh-poohed and called gullible and ignorant by those who insisted that it was overrated and undersupplied. These were the same people who were boldly demanding that we were at Peak Oil already and that solar and wind and corn oil were the only way to survive the coming apocalypse of no power. I and another guy called coalman (guess why) got tired of arguing with the global-warming-for-profit crowd.
Of course, try telling Montana and North Dakota today that the Bakken is overrated. Sadly, the Canadian companies that are yanking out this oil by the barrel cannot refine most of it here, because Congress will only permit so many evil refineries, thanks to the fuel companies and environmentalists who wanted to make the big profits in the 70's. So it gets shipped to China and Japan instead. It's a big fiscal scam perpetrated by the oil companies, who have bought and paid for legislators talking sagely about solar cars and 'waves of the future'; as well as Wall Street, who permits the buying and selling of fuel on the market by silk-suited goombahs who never have to take delivery, and who raise the costs of fuel even higher for everyone.
I highly recommend "The long emergency" by James Kunstler, very well written (and researched) book on the subject of energy crisis.
I read and enjoyed the book several years ago. The final chapter gives much to think about, no matter how much oil you believe might still be in the ground and available. When it's gone, the situation will be a little more dire than running out of toilet paper.
If I recall correctly, Hubbert predicted America’s peak and then the world’s peak. It was his field if I’m not mistaken, and he was simply pointing out the obvious. At the time of his theory, he was laughed at because up to that point, oil was being discovered in quantities exponentially greater than the world’s consumption. He was spot on about America’s peak oil, and he was a bit off when regarding the world’s peak oil, but there are so many variables when it came to figuring out the world’s peak oil that he can hardly be knocked for being five or ten years off. For example, he couldn’t foresee two major oil embargos and many other things.
This is what shocks me about the Average American. The average person is completely oblivious about what's going on when it comes to energy, how we consume it, and how the world uses it as well as emerging energy consuming markets. We consume a large portion of the world’s oil, yet we’re almost 5% of the world’s population. If 25% of the world’s population consumed oil at our rate, it would dry up very quickly. With that said, let’s take a look at China. Thirty years ago, China’s oil consumption was just about nil. In the past thirty years, their oil consumption has increased ten fold. China surpassed the USA for new car sales the other year, and they’re getting ready to eclipse the USA in total miles of Interstate roadway. Now here’s the significance of those figures, most Chinese are still peasants. However, with their economy growing at a very healthy rate, more people are giving up farming and self-sufficiency, moving into the cities, getting jobs in factories, and becoming consumers. The exponential rate with which the Chinese are becoming consumers in combination with America’s failed dollar and economy means that within the next ten years, America is bound to suffer huge increases in gasoline and oil prices. In other words, I predict that within the next ten years, at least half of America will not be able to afford a car, gas, or oil to heat their homes. If this figure included 80% within the next five years, it wouldn’t shock me.
I do not have a mental illness. I don’t have guns and whatnot stockpiled in a bunker up in the mountains. I’ve never seen Elvis, aliens, and I don’t wear tin foil hats so they can’t read my thoughts. It’s just what I see. I am capable of looking down the road, and to deny the obvious signs here in America as well as reports about both China’s and India’s booming economy is being very myopic in my opinion.
Here’s what I see happening, or at least the most likely solution to our problem. Wind, solar, and hydrogen-powered cars are pipe dreams. It’s expensive technology, and we’ve still got a long way to go before it’s even a viable alternative. I suspect that those who live in areas where there’s excessive heat, cities developed post WWII, and the like will find their properties worthless because it’s too expensive to travel by car due to the city being developed around the car and or their homes will be too expensive to air condition. I see all EPA standards being trashed and king coal will return. We’ll get around on electrified train and trolley lines that are powered by coal fired plants. Electric cars are a joke. We cannot currently afford our vast expanses of roadway infrastructure, so when the crunch hits, most will be forced out of their cars due to price, road tax, and the government’s inability to maintain our roadway system.
I don’t remember the exact figures, but my home state alone (Pennsylvania) has enough coal reserves to meet America’s energy demands for a few centuries to come. Schuylkill County alone probably has more Anthracite coal reserves than all other states combined. Yes, coal will be king once again because I don’t see anybody coming up with a cheap solar panel the size of a shoebox or a windmill that’s only 3’ in diameter that will meet your entire energy needs within the next decade. Coal’s the cheapest alternative, and once the oil’s gone or too expensive, it’s the only one.
[quote=bolillo_loco;20476013]I do not have a mental illness. I don’t have guns and whatnot stockpiled in a bunker up in the mountains. I’ve never seen Elvis, aliens, and I don’t wear tin foil hats so they can’t read my thoughts. It’s just what I see. I am capable of looking down the road, and to deny the obvious signs here in America as well as reports about both China’s and India’s booming economy is being very myopic in my opinion.[quote]
Excellent post, BL, and I would add: You don't have to believe in Peak Oil (which utterly mystifies me) to read about it and contemplate how it would affect your life and your preparations if you are wrong.
Nice post bolillo_loco. The EPA is a wet noodle rotting in hell, since Americans must have creature comforts.
The Chinese don't have the clean air acts and while I don't know for sure I bet their not export engines don't have any clean air act functions, or parts. When we buy a car for what ever outrageous prices, we are buying hundreds of pounds of things, mostly space age that do nothing to make the car move.
Whether or not we hit peak oil I don't know either. The White House and EPA goons have called wolf a few too times for me to take serious.
The Chinese don't have the clean air acts and while I don't know for sure I bet their not export engines don't have any clean air act functions, or parts.
My friend, it may surprise you, but China does have emission standards.
One of the reasons they don't import as many American cars is because our cars do not live up to their emission standards.
"Due to rapidly expanding wealth and prosperity, the number of coal power plants and cars on China's roads is rapidly growing, creating an ongoing pollution problem. China enacted its first emissions controls on automobiles in 2000, equivalent to Euro I standards. China's State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) upgraded emission controls again on July 1, 2004 to the Euro II standard.[6] More stringent emission standard, National Standard III, equivalent to Euro III standards, went into effect on July 1, 2007.[7] Plans are for Euro IV standards to take effect in 2010. Beijing introduced the Euro IV standard in advance on January 1, 2008, became the first city in mainland China to adopt this standard."
If I recall correctly, Hubbert predicted America’s peak and then the world’s peak. It was his field if I’m not mistaken, and he was simply pointing out the obvious. At the time of his theory, he was laughed at because up to that point, oil was being discovered in quantities exponentially greater than the world’s consumption. He was spot on about America’s peak oil, and he was a bit off when regarding the world’s peak oil, but there are so many variables when it came to figuring out the world’s peak oil that he can hardly be knocked for being five or ten years off. For example, he couldn’t foresee two major oil embargos and many other things.
Thank you for taking your time and writing the post.
I read a lot on the subject and agree with you.
I want to point out (in addition to what bolillo_loco said) that peak oil is a touchy subject somewhat. Our whole life and our life style is based on cheap oil. We can't now start telling people that they'll have to downsize, simplify and give up conveniences. That's a no-no
Quote:
This is what shocks me about the Average American. The average person is completely oblivious about what's going on when it comes to energy, how we consume it, and how the world uses it as well as emerging energy consuming markets.
It's not just energy. An AA (Average American ) shocks the heck out of me with being oblivious to almost anything.
BTW, the guys and gals on this forum are not AAs by any means.
Quote:
I predict that within the next ten years, at least half of America will not be able to afford a car, gas, or oil to heat their homes. If this figure included 80% within the next five years, it wouldn’t shock me.
I HOPE it takes 10 years. This will give people time to adjust gradually.
Five years would be fast and hard, but wouldn't shock me either.
Quote:
Electric cars are a joke. We cannot currently afford our vast expanses of roadway infrastructure, so when the crunch hits, most will be forced out of their cars due to price, road tax, and the government’s inability to maintain our roadway system.
Agree. We need good and cheap public transportation. But I don't see it happening on a wide scale as most cities are just not set up for it and city governments are not willing to think outside the box.
Quote:
Yes, coal will be king once again because I don’t see anybody coming up with a cheap solar panel the size of a shoebox or a windmill that’s only 3’ in diameter that will meet your entire energy needs within the next decade.
You do not see it because it's too early
Big business will wait until all available fuels are used up and then will show up on the market and "save" the day with their "new" technology, that they had stashed away all along.
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Sadly, the Canadian companies that are yanking out this oil by the barrel cannot refine most of it here, because Congress will only permit so many evil refineries, thanks to the fuel companies and environmentalists who wanted to make the big profits in the 70's. So it gets shipped to China and Japan instead. 
