Sufficiency Perspective for Eternally Rising Debt Ceiling (wheat, house, water)

[ChrisC]

It seems this nation has decided that perpetual borrowing and debt is a stable way of life. Every other month it seems we hear that the national debt ceiling is again going up, up, and away. Like a beautiful balloon. I'd compare it to a man who, rather than working harder for extra resources, simply has his credit card companies raise his debt ceiling every time he's strapped for cash.

How long can that go on? What will happen when the creditors wise up and see that they likely will never be repaid? To me, it logically cannot remain a stable economic model--living on credit can only work for so long.

So, my question is, as "preparedness people," what do you expect to eventually happen with this? Do you expect a complete collapse of our economy? A collapse of society? Riots? Rebellion? A war? A slow "burnout" and decent into a third-world-like society? An ever-increasing police state with ever-increasing control over The Individual? A combination of several of these?

Or, perhaps you believe that one can live on credit cards forever and nothing will happen at all? That there will be no consequence to economic stupidity?

And given your "outcome belief," what do you personally feel is the best survival strategy (assuming you actually want to survive whichever consequence you have chosen from above)?

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Personally, and admitting that there is no way for me to know the outcome with 100% confidence, I think there is a good chance that things will just continue to "slow" economically for quite some time. Of course, Wall Street and the very wealthy economic titans will continue to paint a rosy picture (because it is essentially rosy for them), even though it will be obvious for the "masses" that the economy is getting farther and farther off the tracks.

I'm gambling that there will not be a "Mad Max" type of situation or civil unrest on a large scale, although I could certainly see inner city areas engaging in civil unrest because it doesn't take all that much even in the best of times. So, I guess what I'm saying is that I'm gambling (at least right now) that anything I have personally will not be pillaged on a grand scale. That my "buckets of wheat" (so to speak) are safe for the time being. I don't think widespread chaos and starvation will happen all of a sudden one day. These things often take time, unless there is war or something like that.

Ideally, before things got really bad, I would be far afield and basically invisible to those who would be most desperate. But again, I'm gambling that such desperation would not come overnight and that anyone with a keen mind could see that approaching and make necessary arrangements. I do see us heading dangerously down that path as a nation. But, you know, it takes time to stop a train (talking about our economic train). I see the current leadership doing everything it can to stop or defail the train--only fools would make some of the choices they have made unless the end goal was crashing the economy. The alarming thing is that most folks either don't see the train slowing down, don't care, or don't think that a stopped economic train means anything to them personally. In my view, that "train" is the downside of a collective society. We're all on that train. The trick is to somehow get off from it. Not at all easy in our spiderweb of modern dependency.

But, I can keep on working in that direction, and hope things don't really go to hell until after I've worked my way largely out of the spiderweb or I'm dead.


So, where do you think we are headed economically, socially, and "leadership-wise"? And what are you doing about it?

(and please, if you are going to make a comment about tin foil hats, etc, don't bother... we've seen it all before and we already know that you'll be doing nothing other than partying down and rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic--if you are not interested in this topic, why respond?)

[MTSilvertip]

Good Post Chris

Your concerns are well founded and your conclusions have been thought out and presented in a very cogent manner.

I agree with your conclusions, with the proviso that there are other factors at work here as well.

Some of the Semi-Soverign states for the past few years have been attempting to balance their budgets, attract business, reduce the tax burden and turn the economy around in their own states in full opposition to the federal government.

States like Ohio, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Texas and others have been working very hard to prosper in spite of the fed and its prosperity killing policies. They elected governors and representatives willing to stand up to the party and do what is right for their states.
Governors Walker and Kasich are good examples of this, and their states have shown the benefits of their responsibility.

In my home state of Montana for instance, even though the population centers keep electing democrat governors, the people send very conservative legislators and senators to Helena that can and do override the governor's policies and make a balanced budget, lower business tax, work to make the state more business friendly, work to create job training programs, use our natural resources to create jobs and other things that fly in complete opposition to federal policy.

If the country stays on its present course, it will be a slow, (or not so slow) slide into 3rd world status, or at best, to mirror the socialist countries of Europe that lost their empires and faded into second class status.

What I see happening is the states working within their limited autonomy to improve conditions within their boarders.
Not all of course. Some like California seem to be working overtime to destroy their middle class and hurry the decent into poverty for the masses and a complete dependence on government, but there are a lot of states that have taken off the blinders and have started taking care of themselves realizing that what washington does will not be posative for them.

Something I really don't want to see, but it is a possiblity, is a balkinization of the US splitting states that take care of themselves from the federal states that follow the federal mandates like slavering dogs after a bone.

If the fed won't take notice, perhaps the states can effect their own changes to keep their citizens safe and working.

There has been a decided shift in the politics of some of the representatives sent to congress, and hopefully the senate will follow suit this year.

All I can do is work to make sure I and my family are as safe and secure as possible, and work to get good people sent to Helena and washington from Montana to try and regain some fiscal sense in government at all levels.

In a small population state like Montana that is far easier than in more densly populated areas, but as the pain spreads, more and more people will be willing to listen to reason if someone has the gumption to stand up and speak in opposition to what we currently have.

Just my 2 cents.

[Nor'Eastah]

Originally Posted by ChrisC

It seems this nation has decided that perpetual borrowing and debt is a stable way of life. Every other month it seems we hear that the national debt ceiling is again going up, up, and away. Like a beautiful balloon. I'd compare it to a man who, rather than working harder for extra resources, simply has his credit card companies raise his debt ceiling every time he's strapped for cash.

How long can that go on? What will happen when the creditors wise up and see that they likely will never be repaid? To me, it logically cannot remain a stable economic model--living on credit can only work for so long.

It appears that it can go on for quite a long time, yet. It took many years to get to this point (100+, since the Fed was created) and it can still take many years to resolve itself. I do not think we will just "fall off a cliff". Cycles do not work that way. That said, it is a poor economic policy, both for a country and for a household. It is not sustainable, and will have to come to an end. Let us hope that it will be a slow, gradual end, not TEOTWAWKI.

Originally Posted by ChrisC

So, my question is, as "preparedness people," what do you expect to eventually happen with this? Do you expect a complete collapse of our economy? A collapse of society? Riots? Rebellion? A war? A slow "burnout" and decent into a third-world-like society? An ever-increasing police state with ever-increasing control over The Individual? A combination of several of these?

I do not expect a complete collapse of either our economy or of society. I do expect a revaluation of the $US...but that has been happening gradually over the past 100 years, has it not? What the "dollar" would buy in 1914, now buys about 4 cents worth today. The Powerz are depending on this gradual debasement to camouflage what they have been doing -- and they've been remarkably successful at it. As for war, I do expect that rear its ugly head in the not-to-distant future. But I am hopeful that freeholders all over this country will rise up and take back our liberty and our lives, by instituting local economies using local currencies (barter, at first) and utilizing secession to restore what has been taken from us. Old habits die hard, and there are too many red-blooded men willing to fight for what they believe in.

Originally Posted by ChrisC

I'm gambling that there will not be a "Mad Max" type of situation or civil unrest on a large scale, although I could certainly see inner city areas engaging in civil unrest because it doesn't take all that much even in the best of times. So, I guess what I'm saying is that I'm gambling (at least right now) that anything I have personally will not be pillaged on a grand scale. That my "buckets of wheat" (so to speak) are safe for the time being. I don't think widespread chaos and starvation will happen all of a sudden one day. These things often take time, unless there is war or something like that.

I agree, and am gambling on the same thing (a long, slow decline with nothing catastrophic ensuing). As you may recall, my family and I are about to move up to the Maine property where some relatives and I last year built a small ranch and bunk house. That move is not yet completed, and I'm embarrassed to admit that, just getting to this point, has used up far more of my cash than I had imagined it would. So, for those who think there is no inflation afoot, let me assure you that there is -- a great deal of it -- as we had spec'ed the building materials just about one year ago today, and it has cost easily 150% of that. I need another few years of unhampered income to reset my bank account to rights.

It may be instructive to look at the situation in Argentina, which is going through another of its many peso crises, another devaluation that is causing widespread hardship in that small country grown long used to crises. Yes, there is scarcity, there is hardship, there is distrust in the political leadership, there is some small-scale protest. But as bad as the conditions are there, I am not reading of widespread rioting or chaos. That could change at any time.

[countryboy73]

If the spending continues at current levels(meaning it does not increase, wanna bet that won't happen?), I see America defaulting at some point on its obligations. I see the possibility of foreign entities taking control of American assets as a sort of collateral for their lost investment. A total catastrophic collapse? Not sure, but I lean toward a slow grind into second-tier status, much like Great Britain has experienced. Although, given the state of immigration and demographics there, they are looking more and more likely to become a caricature of late-term Roman society, taken over and destroyed by barbarians. We might one day reach that point, too, if the current thinking prevails long-term. Bringing uneducated and penniless foreigners into a society where there is little economic opportunity(not handouts, opportunities) is a recipe for eventual rioting and destruction as the newcomers become more and more disenfranchised with their lot. Look at Paris and some other European cities for a view into the near future of London, and maybe the eventual future of places like Houston, Miami, Chicago, etc.

For those of us in rural areas, life is most likely to get more expensive as out incomes dwindle due to job cuts, economic depression, higher taxes, and the like. Maybe power outages or limited use of same due to lack of funds to pay for more expensive power(MO gets 85% of its electricity from coal, and EPA is attempting to shut down all but one of the 9 coal-fired plants in MO. Think the power bill might go up?) or even as a result of weakening or overloaded infrastructure. The mere cost of driving to work will likely take a bite of the rural wallet, as rural people tend to commute farther to work, on average. Cuts in the average family budget will be made, and each individual family will make the cuts based on their own lifestyle. Divorce will likely increase, and the birth rate will drop among working adults(and possibly rise among those looting the system, as a way to increase incoming funding). Schools will cut athletic programs, music programs, unnecessary classes, and bus service will either become fee-based, or less available. Roads that were paved will revert to gravel to save costs(it is already happening where I live). Plowing and treating the roads in the winter will become less effective(the county my sister lives in ran out of salt this last storm and left the roads to melt naturally). I think that while rural people will have more food(due to the ability to grow it, read up on the Great Depression), the rural folks will bear the brunt of funding cuts, as the cities hold more votes and thus will get more consideration.

Cities are more likely to get out of control, so efforts will be made to keep a certain level of contentment maintained in urban areas, although a reduction in police, fire, and other services will eventually happen in many places. Detroit is a perfect example of a normal American city in serious decline. Study it if you are a city dweller and want to know what will happen to your city in a future decline scenario. Food may become more expensive or have supply problems in the cities, relative to the rural areas, as food has more cost and effort associated with its transport to city markets.

Of course, all bets are off if the feds ever try to disarm Americans, stop SS or welfare funding, cut funding to states and counties, or a major war breaks out. Then there are mega disasters like a tsunami hitting either coast, or the New Madrid fault cutting loose. Any of these things or others of similar scale or intensity have the potential to severely disrupt American society. I would like to think we would all band together and help one another, but I don't know.

No matter what happens, I want to survive, and make preparations to that end. I do not have a bunker or some kind of militia-type group of survivalist buddies with plans ot meet up and squat in the national forest if "anything happens", but I keep some extra food, the ability to create potable water, warm clothing, first aid supplies, and other preparations. I cut my own wood for heat, raise a good bit of my own produce meat, and eggs, and know how to do most of what I can conceivably need done. I guess if I need a bunker, I figure it wouldn't save me anyway, so why bother? But feeding, sheltering, and taking care of my family under any conditions not requiring a bunker? I think I can do better than most. We eat good now, in a very depressed region of the country, and stay warm, clothed and sheltered, so we are rich. The methodology might change a little in the future, but I expect the result to be the same.