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Justify (4-5)
Hofburg (4-1)
Bravazo (8-1)
Tenfold (10-1)
Blended Citizen (14-1)
Vino Rosso (9-1)
Free Drop Billy (50-1)
Gronkowski (69-1)
I'm going to try to pick the horses to finish 5th - 8th and box the other four as well as taking "no" as to whether the triple crown will be won.
My first two out are Free Drop and Gronkowski.
The Big Sandy track is like running on sand. Which of the contenders have run 1.5 miles? We know none have been trained to run that far.
As one analyst said he thinks the race will be won in the last furlong. I tend to agree.
If M. Smith tries to go wire to wire I think Justify gets caught in the final furlong. There were chargers charging at the Preakness wire. This is not a Zenyatta that can get 10+ lengths behind and win.
If Justify has a 6-7 length lead at the last furlong maybe he can hang on by a nostril.
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Bravazo has run a mile or more in 9 of his 10 races.
Gronkowski has never run longer than one mile.
Last edited by howard555; 05-29-2018 at 05:51 PM..
Justify (4-5)
Hofburg (4-1)
Bravazo (8-1)
Tenfold (10-1)
Blended Citizen (14-1)
Vino Rosso (9-1)
Free Drop Billy (50-1)
Gronkowski (69-1)
I'm going to try to pick the horses to finish 5th - 8th and box the other four as well as taking "no" as to whether the triple crown will be won.
My first two out are Free Drop and Gronkowski.
The Big Sandy track is like running on sand. Which of the contenders have run 1.5 miles? We know none have been trained to run that far.
As one analyst said he thinks the race will be won in the last furlong. I tend to agree.
If M. Smith tries to go wire to wire I think Justify gets caught in the final furlong. There were chargers charging at the Preakness wire. This is not a Zenyatta that can get 10+ lengths behind and win.
If Justify has a 6-7 length lead at the last furlong maybe he can hang on by a nostril.
-------------------------------------
Bravazo has run a mile or more in 9 of his 10 races.
Gronkowski has never run longer than one mile.
Where's Noble Indy, did he drop out? The article may not be so "updated." I'm puzzled why he was left out.
So is this a 9 horse field now? I'm saying that because I'm pretty sure Noble Indy is running. I expect him to give a little company to Justify on the front end.
I was hoping for a bigger field but I told a friend a few days ago I'm expecting between 9-11 entries. As of now I'm placing a W-P-S bet on Blended Citizen. Love his long stride and grinding style. He is definitely on the upswing. I think he gets the 1.5 mile and is up to the class jump. He'll need to keep improving in order to get his picture taken. Distance could be an issue but that goes with all of these.
Does anyone think Justify will improve off the Preakness? I don't.
His Beyer's are regressing - 2 races in a row now. From his 107 in the SA Derby, 103 Kentucky Derby, and 97 in the Preakness. That's not a good sign. I predict this will be #3. If that happens he will be lucky to get the show.
Here are some other odds but I do not think they are current:
Noble Indy 25-1
Enticed 50-1
Restoring Hope 50-1
Solomini 50-1
Just Whistle 60-1
5 ways Justify gets beat:
1. The Break:
Trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith have said repeatedly that the break from the gate is the most important part of Justify’s race.
Justify has yet to sit behind horses in his career and hasn’t had dirt kicked in his face in any of his races. Smith has kept him in the clear in all of his starts and Justify has the talent to make his own trip, but it’s an unknown how he’ll react if he has to sit behind horses in the Belmont. A clean break is imperative to getting Justify in the clear early.
2. The First Wave:
The target on the back of a horse going for the Triple Crown is bigger than a helicopter landing pad.
With each trainer and jockey plotting against the favorite, Justify will need to take on waves of competitors throughout the opening stages of the race.
Probables that may apply pressure to Justify early include the Preakness runner-up Bravazo and the third-place finisher Tenfold. Both are capable of showing early speed if asked, but neither are as fast early as Justify.
It also is possible that connections will enter a “rabbit†to try to coax Justify to go too fast early. Right now, Bandua, coming in from Ireland, may be the likely rabbit for Bravazo, as both are owned by Calumet Farm.
Baffert says that he’s running his own rabbit, Restoring Hope. He can show early speed, so perhaps he will to try to give Justify a target early in the race.
Additionally, Noble Indy is now possible for the Belmont and could be another likely pacesetter if Smith decides that he would like Justify to sit off of the early pace. WinStar Farms partially owns both Justify and Noble Indy, so there will likely be clear directions to the jockeys that neither should hamper the other’s chances.
The European invader Gronkowski shouldn’t add much to the pace pressure on Justify and likely will sit mid-pack early in the Belmont.
3. The Final Wave:
Both Silver Charm and Smarty Jones were caught late by horses that were near the pace. The theory goes that closers don’t usually win the Belmont, as the 1 1/2-mile race is more conducive to grinders that throw down even fractions than it is to closers that make one late sustained move.
Some of Justify’s top challengers have strong closing tactics, including the Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, trained by Todd Pletcher, the ninth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby after trailing in 18th to start the race. Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott’s promising colt, Hofburg, had a troubled trip in the Derby to finish ninth. Both have strong distance pedigrees to excel at the 1 1/2-mile trek around “Big Sandy.â€
The local prep for the Belmont, the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes, was won by closer Blended Citizen, and he’ll be looking to move late again here for two-time Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill. Grade 1 winner Free Drop Billy is another that will look to set up shop somewhere at the back of the pack for trainer Dale Romans, who’s been know to hit the board in this race in the past.
It’s true that horses usually don’t win the Belmont from 10 lengths back, but in the two cases below, horses in ninth and eighth at the mile point in the race spoiled the Triple Crown, so maybe Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Blended Citizen, or Free Drop Billy will get a similar type of winning trip in 2018:
4. Health:
On the note of one of the most catastrophic endings to a Triple Crown try, the issue of health needs to be addressed. On any given day, a horse can take a misstep galloping, hit his head in his stall, spike a fever, or find a million other ways to hurt himself. Horses are beautiful, flesh-and-blood animals, so anything can go wrong. Justify stepped on some large rocks outside of his stall the morning after the Derby and favored his left hind. Even though he overcame that bruised heel issue, it’s an example of the many things that can affect him and his training.
5. The Grind:
Justify has won five races in 90 days and will now need to win a sixth in a total of 111 days (an average of 1 race every 18.5 days). Additionally, the 1 1/2-mile Belmont will be the longest race in which he’s ever run. With no foundation built up in his juvenile year, will so much racing over such a short period time be his undoing?
Last week I saw Gronkowski at 12-1. A couple days later up to 15-1.
What is all the chatter about Hofburg who is now seen as 9-4?
New entrants are Seahenge, Noble Indy, Bandua.
And Restoring Hope and this horse is trained by Baffert and at odds of 60-1 may be a rabbit to help Justify. Breeding rights have already been sold so they want the triple crown while at the same time not ruining the horse. They likely have no interest at all in the place or show with Justify. If he loses he may be retired.
I find it hard to leave Justify out of a $24 Superfecta box but if I do and he fails to finish top 4 it could be blamed on the jockey.
I'd put the chance of Justify not making the top 4 at almost zero. Can you imagine what the superfecta will pay if he doesn't?
He can win but I'm looking to beat him. I'm taking a long look at Tenfold. Hardly no one is talking about him but if one looks close he may have the best breeding for the mile and a half distance in this entire field. He's peaking and developing real fast. He's another with a long smooth stride. I think he at least hits the board at a price (I'm predicting 11-1) and just may take home the top prize.
I'm leaving Hofburg alone. He will be over bet and may not even hit the board. I will be stunned if he won.
Adding - I'm not considering Gronkowski either. He's never raced on the dirt and all of his races have been at one mile or less.
Further note - It should be a fast track on Saturday.
As I hinted to - Tenfold is not getting any respect at all. We will see. A 1-3 or 1-4 exacta will ruin my plan to make some money Saturday. It could happen, we'l see. Did I mention I do not like chalk? LOL.
Blended Citizen did not draw well. Mentioned him earlier before I found out that he only got a 90 Beyer in his last race. He'll have to run the race of his life to win against these.
For newcomers and lurkers here, those morning line odds are a track handicappers guess on how they expect the public will bet. Means nothing come post time which is scheduled at 6:37 PM this Saturday.
I heard a report that Elmont, New York may indeed get rain on Saturday.
One article said never leave Todd Pletcher out of the picture. But Vino Rosso has always finished behind other horses in the field or other good horses. Noble Indy won at the Fairgrounds I think and I do not recall much after that.
Chad Brown is to be respected but Gronkowski has never run further than one mile.
Restoring Hope is likely a rabbit. Free Drop is not in my top 4.
A $1 trifecta box with the three favorites at the Derby paid over $117. Except for Justify (who was 3-1 in the Derby) the odds are similar. I think the top three were 3-1, 5-1 and 7-1.
I'm thinking of a $1 (minimum ) super box = $24.
Justify and Tenfold are in it. Bravazo makes three.
The next horse I choose determines a winner or a loser.
As of today:
In for me are 1-3-7.
Out for me are 2-5-6-8-9
That leaves 4 and 10 and I am leaning heavily toward 4.
1-3-4-7 box and one of those horses to 100% get the show.
Belmont Stakes picks here. Think Hofberg and Vino Rosso are going to be tough and will love the distance. Going to use both in the exotic wagers, win bets on both.
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The 2018 Belmont Stakes
) super box = $24.
