Are you ready for the new urbanites? (St. Louis, Creve Coeur: home, neighborhoods)

[gotigers123]

Originally Posted by flynavyj

Generation Y here also...love the yard work...something about having a well manicured lawn that makes me happy...as to the yard space, both myself and my wife want it for the little ones to be able to play soccer, catch, etc w/o having to go to the park.

I'm willing to say that there is a "resurgence" in city living. And that more people (specifically in St. Louis) would consider it now than they would have 10-20-30 years ago...however, i'd be very interested in knowing how much this has reversed the desirability of the suburbs.

As to the majority of 20 somethings not wanting 3k square feet, in the burbs, with a 3 car garage...i don't know if it's so much that they don't want it, as much as they can't afford it.

In most major cities (not referring to St. Louis), rents for small apartments in desirable urban neighborhoods can easily exceed entire mortgage payments on a 3k square foot mcmansion in the burbs. I really don't think it's a matter of cost. The vast majority of people I know in my age range (mid 20's) have very little desire to live in the suburbs.

[Brickmama]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

I'm willing to say there is a "resurgence" in city living as well, which, by the way, I think is great.

But this is one quote from the article linked in the op's original post:

"John McIlwain, president of the Urban Land Institute says: 'The age of sub-urbanization and growing homeownership is over, and the coming decades will be the time of the great re-urbanization. We should replace front lawns and sedans with apartments and trains.'"

Don't you think this goes a little too far? I'm thinking that's just so much wishful thinking on his part.

Reorganization may or may not happen but the movement back to the city has a lot of momentum. I would encourage you to do a detailed analysis on these numbers instead of taking them at face value.
*
Out of all areas within the region; STL City, STL County, St Charles, Franklin, Lincoln, and Ill counties of St Clair, Madison, and Monroe the youngest sub-region in terms of median age is by far STL City. All other counties median age increased while the* median age of STL City decreased despite the fact it shed thousands of people under the age of 18. In addition the household income of the City increased which suggests that younger educated individuals are choosing an urban lifestyle.
*
See Article
New census data show who lives where in St. Louis area, by the ages
*
*
The population loss in the city was a result of black flight and smaller households. Homes that were once occupied by 4-6 member households are now occupied by 2. Buildings that were 2 flats have been converted and rehabbed into single family homes occupied by the younger generation.
*
My main question is now that the suburbs are aging who is going to replace them once they start downsizing or move to assisted living facilities? Is it going to be the younger generation or a more transient group of individuals that are seeking a better quality of life? It is yet to be determined but it’s a major question that all major metropolitan areas are dealing with. There is a ton of housing in suburban America that is occupied by 55-65 year olds that are entering the next phase of life and there will have to be great demand to absorb the excess housing.
*
Job migration is a lagging indicator for inter region migration. Jobs did not expand into the county and exurbs until the people did. Now that educated people are moving back into core cities the reverse may happen within the next 10 years.

[moorlander]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

You are probably right in overall terms, and I'm really not trying to pick a fight here, but I just don't believe that the current census data supports some of the far ranging conclusions reached in the original article that started this thread that suggests a mass migration to urban cores is going to occur, nor do I believe your implication that the far burbs are going to wither and die.

Here's a link to a PDF of the post article that we discussed on this forum back in May:

http://www.edcscc.com/pubs/Jobs_migr..._22May2011.pdf

Some interesting stats from this article that are relevent to our discussion:

*Jobs in St. Louis fell by 14% from 2000 to 2009, outpacing population loss of 8%. The total number of jobs lost in the last decade according to the chart in the article was 86,074.

*Jobs in STL County fell by 13 percent, well outpacing population loss of 2%.

*St. Charles County jobs increased by 28%, and Lincoln, Monroe and Jefferson Counties in Missouri had double digit percent job increases from 2000-2009.

*A 2009 Brookings Institution study, using 2006 data, found that more than half of all jobs in the area are located more than 10 miles from downtown STL. Only 14% of jobs were within three miles of center.

*Although I always focus on St. Louis, the same Brookings Institute study said this movement of jobs away from the urban core is occuring in 95 of the 98 metro areas analyzed.

So I agree that young people today are getting married later, having kids later and having fewer of them, and a growing number of them prefer living in or closer to the urban core, at least compared to 20-30 years ago, but I still think projections that we are on the verge of some type of massive influx to the urban core in St. Louis (and apparently most other areas) is not borne out by anything in the current census data.

I also agree that we are unlikely to continue to see people moving out in the same large numbers as they did in the past several decades.

I still don't see a major shift in the other direction borne out by anything in the most recent census data. mabye the next 10 years will completely shift in the other direction, but that seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. The last census shows both jobs and people continue to move out from the urban core. It would be quite a reversal to change those trends in absolute terms in the next decade or two, particularly when the jobs have been moving out with the people. You also have the school issues and perceptions, fairly or unfairly, of crime.

I found a link to a press release of the study with a chart that shows that more than 60% of the jobs in the STL area are more than 10 miles away from the city center:

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Fil...ss_release.pdf

[LEFT]Metro Areas with Most Job Sprawl[/LEFT]
[LEFT]Large Employment Center[/LEFT]
[LEFT]Share of Jobs – More Than 10
Miles Away From City Center*[/LEFT]
[LEFT]Detroit‐Warren‐Livonia, MI 77.4 percent
Chicago‐Naperville‐Joliet, IL‐IN‐WI 68.7 percent
Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington, TX 66.9 percent
Los Angeles‐Long Beach, Santa Ana, CA 65.6 percent
Philadelphia‐Camden‐Wilmington, PA‐NJ‐DE 63.7 percent
Atlanta‐Sandy Springs‐Marietta, GA 63.2 percent
Miami‐Fort Lauderdale‐Miami Beach, FL 62.6 percent
St. Louis, MO‐IL 60.9 percent
San Francisco‐Oakland‐Fremont, CA 57.3 percent[/LEFT]
Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue, WA 56.0 percent

This data is a reflection of the entire population not specifically of gen Y.

[stlcitygirl]

I have read a lot of articles like this, and I agree to an extent. It will be very interesting to see what cities look like in 20 years. In my extended group, "suburb" is very undesirable. Almost everyone I know relocated to the city/inner burbs. I read an interesting stat the other day, "75% of Generation Y grew up in the suburbs. 77% say they perfer urban environments and intend to live (or stay) in cities. Even if half actually do this, this is a major generation shift"-Ellen Dunham-Jones, Georgia Institute of Technology

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by Brickmama

the youngest sub-region in terms of median age is by far STL City.

I did read that article when it came out and it is interesting. The city is becoming very attractive to young singles and empty nesters. But not to families with young kids:

"For example, the information shows that while the number of children ages 5-9 dropped by nearly 35 percent in the city of St. Louis over the last decade."

Where are the people with young kids going?

At any rate, I totally agree the city has a lot of momentum going, and that's a good thing. I just think some of the predictions are likely very overstated. Just my opinion. I realize I'm a contrarian on this forum on this subject. I also realize a lot of people who are pro-city have an anti-suburban outlook for whatever reason.

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by Brickmama

Job migration is a lagging indicator for inter region migration. Jobs did not expand into the county and exurbs until the people did. Now that educated people are moving back into core cities the reverse may happen within the next 10 years.

Mabye, but with 60.9% of the region's jobs located more than 10 miles from the city center, according to the Brookings Institute Study cited by the Post article, that will take one helluva shift in 10 years.

[BoomBoxing]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

I also realize a lot of people who are pro-city have an anti-suburban outlook for whatever reason.

I strongly disagree with this. It just happens that being pro-city is such a "radical" notion in the St. Louis area (and most other places) that people just assume you hate all suburbs because you prefer the city. Yet the inverse isn't automatically true for some reason. I'm sure I've recommended where you live, Kirkwood, more than I've recommended the city to people on here. Suburbs work best for most people, especially those with kids.

But just because the city is my preference does not make me anti-suburb, and I think that is true of everyone who regularly posts on here.

[aragx6]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

Mabye, but with 60.9% of the region's jobs located more than 10 miles from the city center, according to the Brookings Institute Study cited by the Post article, that will take one helluva shift in 10 years.

The shift to the suburbs happened as fast or faster than just about anyone is predicting a move back to the city. 30 years ago St. Charles county was pretty much one big farm. My childhood home was built in 1976 and we're one of the oldest in St. Peters.

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by aragx6

The shift to the suburbs happened as fast or faster than just about anyone is predicting a move back to the city. 30 years ago St. Charles county was pretty much one big farm. My childhood home was built in 1976 and we're one of the oldest in St. Peters.

The shift out of St. Louis city began around 1950, as I recall.

My problem with these predictions is the most recent census data shows that people are still moving out, though. No question it has slowed and some neighborhoods are gaining population, but the net figure was still a loss. Even STL County lost population for the first time, will the far burbs continued to gain significant numbers. So basically, at least as far as St. Louis is concerned, people are predicting that the still prevelent trend will come to an abrupt halt and the opposite trend will begin and happen quickly?

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by BoomBoxing

I strongly disagree with this. It just happens that being pro-city is such a "radical" notion in the St. Louis area (and most other places) that people just assume you hate all suburbs because you prefer the city. Yet the inverse isn't automatically true for some reason. I'm sure I've recommended where you live, Kirkwood, more than I've recommended the city to people on here. Suburbs work best for most people, especially those with kids.

But just because the city is my preference does not make me anti-suburb, and I think that is true of everyone who regularly posts on here.

True, no offense intended. I really don't think being pro city is so radical. People have been moving back to the city for some time. I have many freinds and co-workers who've lived in the city for years. It certainly is gaining momentum now. I think it was radical in the 70s and 80s.