South Tampa vs Valrico/Lithia vs Carrollwood vs Lutz (Palm Harbor: bank owned, sales)

[workingmomintampa]

Ok so we moved here 8 weeks ago and we are renting in Carrollwood which I love. Looking to buy in 10-18 months. We have 3 dogs and 2 young children. My husband works from home but I am in sales and drive all over about 3 days per week and I am in the office 2+ days per week (office can be in Hyde PArk or westshore area - executive suites type). Here are my thoughts on the different areas:
1) South Tampa - PROS: Awesome surroundings, walk to everything - even my office (save on gas $), near the water for boating, great schools if in Plant High, old neighborhoods, etc. CONS: Price (list price, insurance, taxes)
2) Carrollwood - PROS: Great neighborhoods, close to everything (not walking though), great prices on homes, not too far to get to water but not as close as I would like. CONS: Not very good schools once you get past elementary; TRAFFIC!!! UGHH THE TRAFFIC!!!!
3) Lutz - PROS: Excellent Schools, peacful country setting, Great bang for the buck- lots of house for less. Can buy our "dream home" but....CONS: Very far out there, commute, not as close to "real" restaurants (non chain), lack of real civilization- MUCH further from the water
4) VALRICO/Lithia - PROS: Excellent Schools, peaceful, grreat prices on homes, NEAR THE WATER!!! CONS: Very far away from Tampa, horrible commute, same stuff as Lutz.

SO what do you all think of my assessment???? I open to hearing all opinions and sifting through them over the months!! If I knew I could get homes which are now listed at $650k in South Tampa for $475k or less, I would just go there but $475 doesn't buy you a whole lot in South Tampa in the PLANT high district. ugghhh...
Thanks so much everyone! love this forum - everyone is very nice and helpful.

[rickyba]

We just purchased a home in the Westchase area. Looked at Fish Hawk in Lithia and did not like the area at all. Too far from anything and I didn´t feel the neighborhoods within FH were very well kept. Seems like a declining area to me but depends on your style and where you work. We also looked in Palm Harbor and liked that area - there are some nice subs up there and you are close to the beach. But, we fell in love with Westchase. Its more established, yet still has newer homes. The area is very well kept and is close to both the airport and beaches. You will pay more in taxes perhaps and you certainly can not get as big as house compared to Fish Hawk, Valerico, Riverview, etc., but to me its a much better investment. We were also considering Lutz but did not have time to look there. Good luck!

[housingcrashsurvivor]

Originally Posted by workingmomintampa

4) VALRICO/Lithia - PROS: ... NEAR THE WATER!!! ...

SO what do you all think of my assessment????

Near what water? Well water? How's the boating there?

South Tampa? Forget their asking prices. Nobody told them about the crash. They still live in the housing bubble. Zillow shows them down to only about 2003 values. They've still got another 2 years worth of "value" to drop, minimum judging by how much everything else has declined.

http://i925.photobucket.com/albums/ad99/housingcrashsurvivor/Untitled-1-3.jpg (broken link)


EDIT: When you might hear Tampa still has another 20% to come down, or whatever the number, here's some of the hide where that overbloat is hiding....

http://i925.photobucket.com/albums/ad99/housingcrashsurvivor/Untitled-1-4.jpg (broken link)

This chart shows that an area like University Square now lower than it was in 2001 by about 10%, so probably not a lot of value left to lose there.

But now look at Davis Island and New Tampa both would have to drop 35% to get to their prebubble prices. This ain't over. There are some amazing buys to be had but still plenty of rip-offs. Shop carefully.

[selltampabay]

It seems like u have some time for shoping around(10-18 mo.), why don't u find something u like and offer what u think is fair, if u don't want to overpay do not get emotionaly attached to properties, keep on looking, moving on and get a good agent. 90% ( or more)of the market are forclosures and bank owned properties, and as u know it is a mess - on one of my transactions we got extremely low BPO, the comps that the appraiser was looking at were completely trashed but ours had brand new kitchen and bath (they are too lazy and too busy to physicaly see each property) - as a result u get a nice property for a fair money in S. Tampa. Keep on looking - u have just one CON for S. Tampa.

[MAniacTHW]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

Near what water? Well water? How's the boating there?

I was thinking the same thing. Here we go, one more time: If you want to live close to Tampa, move TO Tampa. Problem solved.

[jdvalle]

We just bought in Palma Ceia (South Tampa) after living in New Tampa for a year. We love it down here. If you have 475K to spend you can find a great house in this area. Really ask yourself whether an extra 800 sq ft in bf nowhere is worth the change in lifestyle. Personally, I'd rather pay triple for my house here than live in the suburbs or exurbs (luckily I didn't have to). I know that for many, a mansion in wesley chapel is a "dream home", but to me its a nightmare. You just have to be honest with yourself and decide where you would be happier, irrespective of the size of your home/lot. What feels better for you and your family?

btw - The post about people in So. Tampa still living in the bubble? Yes. Many do. But the thing people forget about real estate is that a house is worth what someone will pay for it. So. Tampa homes are holding value (and even inching up) while the rest of the area continues to tank. There is a reason for this. It a very nice place to live and is quite established. People are starting to snap up reasonably priced places in So Tampa and so now the values are stabilizing. I'd be very surprised if this area saw another significant drop barring another economic calamity. It's new construction in gated suburban communities that you have to watch out for.

[TampaKaren]

Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor

Near what water? Well water? How's the boating there?

South Tampa? Forget their asking prices. Nobody told them about the crash. They still live in the housing bubble. Zillow shows them down to only about 2003 values. They've still got another 2 years worth of "value" to drop, minimum judging by how much everything else has declined.




EDIT: When you might hear Tampa still has another 20% to come down, or whatever the number, here's some of the hide where that overbloat is hiding....



This chart shows that an area like University Square now lower than it was in 2001 by about 10%, so probably not a lot of value left to lose there.

But now look at Davis Island and New Tampa both would have to drop 35% to get to their prebubble prices. This ain't over. There are some amazing buys to be had but still plenty of rip-offs. Shop carefully.

The charts are great thanks. In SoTa, you showed us Interbay, Palma Ceia, Culbreath Isles and South of Gandy. But the Davis Island (including SoHo and Hyde Park) zip code is 33606. Or was this data combined with another zip code? Just curious or maybe confused. One additional comment that in the high-dollar real estate areas, only a couple of sales will distort the graphs.

[ferret111]

You're right about 33606. That wouldn't have been combined with any other ZIPs. It's just missing from that graph for whatever reason.