Question on Tampa Bay home pricing pre-crash??? - to now - then future. (Winter Park: sales, foreclosure)

[Vannort54]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

Sure market is not exactly the same as it was during last crash. Townhomes are completely different story. Some areas never recovered though and some did. NPR is not even near the last bubble level and will never be.
As for the townhouse you are renting, do you know if that complex is involved in any sort of lawsuit with the builder? It will hold values.

What amaze me are prices for new townhouses - 150K in Trinity or $200K in Wesley Chapel and people are buying! I guess they don't care why similar townhouses build within last 10 years never recovered in prices people pay. At least I see more townhouses being built with blocks all the way and not just for first floor.

I don't know if there is any lawsuit against the builder of the townhome I'm living in. I know many of the houses being bought here are cash buys. Europeans and people with money from p north are snatching up homes to flip and rent out. Like I said my buddy is paying cash $95,000 for a home here just to use in the winter months. I would never buy here homeowners insurance to expensive.

[Pragmaticus]

I think people are confusing by just singling out anecdotes of home price at one location. We are no way near pre- bubble price at all for the region (Tampa Bay) or for the state (Florida) or Nation. That's when you should be afraid. Are some areas (disable ones) pre-bubble level already? Sure. But the overwhelming majority is not. That's what matters for crash to happen. A 700K house is not even a microscopic dot on a housing market picture .

Those who think they can time the market by just looking at a very tiny information of the whole market, try. Let us know how you did.

[Vannort54]

Originally Posted by Pragmaticus

I think people are confusing by just singling out anecdotes of home price at one location. We are no way near pre- bubble price at all for the region (Tampa Bay) or for the state (Florida) or Nation. That's when you should be afraid. Are some areas (disable ones) pre-bubble level already? Sure. But the overwhelming majority is not. That's what matters for crash to happen. A 700K house is not even a microscopic dot on a housing market picture .

Those who think they can time the market by just looking at a very tiny information of the whole market, try. Let us know how you did.

Correct hoe many homes in Florida as a whole are still upside down and how many forclosed homes are still out there. Banks are not doing short sales they rather hold the mortgages than keep loseing money. Florida had the worst housing market in the nation so do you really believe its turned around already. Like I said its still hard to get a mortgage and a majority of home sales today are cash sales. And I just found out my friend fom Detroit did get the house in NPR for $95,000 cash it's over 1,700 sq feet. It has been on the market for awhile. He closes in 2 weeks via FedEx. He will be back in Detroit. Will only be a snowbird.

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by Vannort54

Correct hoe many homes in Florida as a whole are still upside down and how many forclosed homes are still out there. Banks are not doing short sales they rather hold the mortgages than keep loseing money. Florida had the worst housing market in the nation so do you really believe its turned around already. Like I said its still hard to get a mortgage and a majority of home sales today are cash sales. And I just found out my friend fom Detroit did get the house in NPR for $95,000 cash it's over 1,700 sq feet. It has been on the market for awhile. He closes in 2 weeks via FedEx. He will be back in Detroit. Will only be a snowbird.

Oh please.... Cash sales were in majority when investors came and stormed the area - 1-3 years ago. Not so much now though because investors are not willing to pay top $$ as it is now.
What is the average house price in Tampa? I have a feeling it's above 100K, and public records shows people are in fact getting mortgages in majority of all transactions.
As I said earlier some areas will never recover to the level we used to back at the last bubble. NPR is one of these areas and the reason is it's location. Sure developers went all over entire Florida and started developments here and there, but if location is remote and not near major employment or within reasonable commute, prices will never get to the same level there again. Or at least in the near future.

If we are not looking at specific community, let's look at entire Tampa Bay area. Facts are we see multiple listings with no offers, prices being unnatural high compare to 1-2 years ago (I am leaving the whole out of picture completely). Banks are dealing with their vacant properties (it's about time!). Investors are no longer buying everything out, but just renting what they bought within last couple of years. Something is coming for sure, but just not sure what exactly is coming.

[lavender]

My feeling is that a typical 3/2/2 home with/without a pool, in a decent neighborhood, would have steadily risen from 2000 to 2015 to where they are now. Example home purchase in 2000 at $150,000 now selling at approx $275,000-$299,000 in Seminole. Thats about 4.5% over 15 yrs which is not unreasonable for a steady increase in property value. Most homes today are about where they should be, but as others have said, flood insurance and second home values are not so strong, as many cannot simply afford to buy them and so they are not so in demand as they were, but this may change over a few years. Some owners of these are not realistic about their values to buyers.

[Fl1150]

I was thinking about this earlier, not so much about a housing crash but looking at prices of houses in new developments and how much there selling for. You be surprised how much money people would pay for amenities like a pool, clubhouse, golf. Location is very important in Florida as you know if your in a desirable area like for example South Tampa prices are going above 300,000 for houses because it is up and coming place where a lot of people are moving to. But besides that point you know what I realized ? You have to pay a premium for sq footage in Florida. If you want that 5 bedroom house in a good school district your paying a pretty penny for it. Houses up north its common to see old 20 century homes with 6 bedrooms however down here those are less common an only in certain areas. So maybe because certain people desire to have those things their willing to take a chance and buy in the market. Also a lot of unfinished developments that were stalled during the depression are starting to come back which in my opinion is a good sign of a stable market.

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

Oh please.... Cash sales were in majority when investors came and stormed the area - 1-3 years ago. Not so much now though because investors are not willing to pay top $$ as it is now.
What is the average house price in Tampa? I have a feeling it's above 100K, and public records shows people are in fact getting mortgages in majority of all transactions.
As I said earlier some areas will never recover to the level we used to back at the last bubble. NPR is one of these areas and the reason is it's location. Sure developers went all over entire Florida and started developments here and there, but if location is remote and not near major employment or within reasonable commute, prices will never get to the same level there again. Or at least in the near future.

If we are not looking at specific community, let's look at entire Tampa Bay area. Facts are we see multiple listings with no offers, prices being unnatural high compare to 1-2 years ago (I am leaving the whole out of picture completely). Banks are dealing with their vacant properties (it's about time!). Investors are no longer buying everything out, but just renting what they bought within last couple of years. Something is coming for sure, but just not sure what exactly is coming.

My parents and I have aquired the services of a realtor to give us the listings and info on 55+ communities very close to where we live. We are trying to get educated a little now, before they visit in February-April. They are trying to decide if they will move here or not. We told the realtor we thought we would be in a great position to buy, as they want to pay cash so maybe that will beat out other offers. She said that 95% of the sales in our 55+ zone are cash sales. That sort of burst our bubble a little.

[EngGirl]

Actually it makes sense to expect most offers to be in 55+ community cash offers. Good luck anyways!

[The Villages Guy]

Originally Posted by EngGirl

Actually it makes sense to expect most offers to be in 55+ community cash offers. Good luck anyways!

Can you explain why? Just the pricing or the age of buyers?

[DWMachineshop]

Who wants a mortgage at 55? If you have not saved the cash for a retirement home by then you will probably just stay where you are.