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Interesting. Previously deliveries just meant how many Tesla could build. I'm not sure I agree but Teslike apparently thinks its' now demand limited even if only slightly. Even with the price cut Tesla can only sell so many because there's only demand at that price for 426k.
Seems like bad analysis to me. Most people have noted the evaporating wait lists for Tesla cars down from 6-9 months to a month or less now. If he's really revising DOWN based on a price cut that seems pretty faulty logic. If there's only 426k people who want Tesla's next quarter after the price cut there were even fewer before the price cut, no?
A few changes/stumbles along the way. On Feb 28th his estimate was down to 412K. He's getting some pushback from some folks, who are challenging his numbers a bit. He does not like being challenged.
Another estimate 413K. He's still getting pushback from people saying he's too low. He responds by saying he's released a new Patreon-only estimate that will get wide release in a few days. Makes me think this estimate is higher.
Another estimate 413K. He's still getting pushback from people saying he's too low. He responds by saying he's released a new Patreon-only estimate that will get wide release in a few days. Makes me think this estimate is higher.
He will probably be going higher. If you watch the Electric Viking YouTube videos, you will see that he tracks sales in various countries. Tesla seems to have sold 20,000 vehicles alone in China last week based on licensing data, which is higher than expected.
A friend ordered a Model Y ($53,500) in late Jan or early Feb. He was told his estimated delivery was late March.
That was revised, a week after placing his deposit and order, to early April.
Another revision three weeks ago..... late April.
Another revision last week.... early May.
The final estimate for Troy is 427,000 deliveries. So fairly large increase. (I guess his critics might have been right....)
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