How do y'all think the weather will be this fall in Texas??? (Lubbock: average, summer)

[C24L]

Do y'all think we will have a cool or warm fall?Will it be wet or dry?I am interested to hear your thoughts.Thanks in advance, Texas forum.

[KathrynAragon]

Well, so far it's warmer than usual here in NE Texas.

[Dallaz]

It has been hot so far and I’m ready for a real cold front.

[Mark Senior]

Weather Channel, which we all could look for their forecast, the nationally followed leader in three-month forecasts, say, warm to warmer for the Easter two-thirds of the country as reported this week. Actually, their words, very much above average, above average, slightly average normal.

Texas above normal. Too darn warm, come on cooler weather. Should finally be 65-85 for much of Texas by October 4th. Yeah, still almost 5 degrees to 10 or more degrees above average.

[erickz623]

I think it’ll be warmer than usual. This summer was unbelievably hot and I believe it’ll carry into fall as well.

[turf3]

Progressively cooler and rainy with intermittent periods of warm weather until winter comes.


The days will be shorter too.

[RJ312]

It is not good so far. Too hot.

[C24L]

Originally Posted by RJ312

It is not good so far. Too hot.

I agree.

[lonestar2007]

Is it Fall or is it Autumn? In Texas what difference does it make, it's continuous summer until winter or so it seems.

[Westerner92]

Originally Posted by lonestar2007

Is it Fall or is it Autumn? In Texas what difference does it make, it's continuous summer until winter or so it seems.

Fall is an older word that mostly Americans use. “Autumn” comes from a trend to Latinize English more in the 1700s or so, and its usage in England came about after much of the came about after the vocabulary was established in American dialects.

But anyway, the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere have shifted somewhat because of increased seasonal lag as the oceans warm. Water takes a lot longer to warm and cool in response to the intensity of the sun than dry air, so most parts of the world have delayed seasons compared to the angle of the sun. Consider that traditionally, summer doesn’t even start until the summer solstice, and most of Texas doesn’t reach its hottest until August. The effect was less pronounced in high, inland regions with dry air like the Rockies and my hometown of Lubbock, where May heatwaves were common and July was the hottest month of the year, but now seasonal lag is here as the air all over the world heats and contains more water vapor. Skiing is no good until mid-January, but the season lasts until at least mid-May. Summer didn’t arrive here until the very end of June.

This effect is getting more pronounced as the ocean warms. This has been the hottest September by far for most of the country east of the Rockies. That’s to say, October will probably still be hot and dry. I predict central Texas’ October monsoon won’t appear until almost November if not just in November. It’ll come with more severe weather than usual if the jet stream stalls out south of the Rockies with a big NE flowing ridge over the plains like it did in May. December will be sunny, mild, and dry, then winter will hit with a vengeance in January to February as the polar vortex breaks down and sends repeated waves of cold storms further south, where people will talk about how long the cold, misty snaps last, and the gaps between them will be very warm, 80 or so, and the monthly averages will come out to slightly below average for January through March.