Texas Hyperloop: Bullet Train all over Again (2014, school)

[ParaguaneroSwag]

After the bullet train was all but officially canceled, lost funding, and lost government back up, seems like a new project is here to make the same ultra fast transportation claim.

"Within 10 years"... Similar to the Bullet Train's announcement when it first came out.

https://aecom.com/projects/hyperloop-texas/

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

After the bullet train was all but officially canceled, lost funding, and lost government back up, seems like a new project is here to make the same ultra fast transportation claim.

"Within 10 years"... Similar to the Bullet Train's announcement when it first came out.

https://aecom.com/projects/hyperloop-texas/

Can you direct me to info. about Texas Central losing funding? Or that it has been all but officially cancelled? And what government back up are you talking about?

[LocalPlanner]

TCR was supposedly seeking some sort of federal financing available to private RRs. Hopefully others can provide a definitive reference.

Nevertheless, the outfit has never provided evidence that they have sufficient investment capital to undertake the project. Given the insanely outlandish capital costs it will take to build the project, everyone should remain utterly skeptical that they can pull it off, IMHO. And the potential for massive high-value commercial development around the stations which would provide them another source of return is also oversold.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

TCR was supposedly seeking some sort of federal financing available to private RRs. Hopefully others can provide a definitive reference.

Nevertheless, the outfit has never provided evidence that they have sufficient investment capital to undertake the project. Given the insanely outlandish capital costs it will take to build the project, everyone should remain utterly skeptical that they can pull it off, IMHO. And the potential for massive high-value commercial development around the stations which would provide them another source of return is also oversold.

IMO it's not that dour. Assuming full licensure, permitting and the state or courts not throwing a curveball if/when TRC offers a large funding round it'll be well subscribed.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by EDS_

IMO it's not that dour. Assuming full licensure, permitting and the state or courts not throwing a curveball if/when TRC offers a large funding round it'll be well subscribed.

Passenger rail capital costs in the U.S. are extraordinarily higher than in other countries (lots of folks have looked into this, but there's no one single explanation as to why). And HSR capital costs are even higher than regular rail.

I don't question the demand side of their model, so long as their fares are competitive with economy air fares. But I am really skeptical that it will be enough to balance the capital cost side for a sufficient return.

Why wouldn't HSR have offered some sort a large funding round to date, even if it was contingent upon full legal approvals? It would definitely be in their political interest to publicize large capital commitments. The fact that there's been nothing on this level publicized by TCR over the number of years this project has been in process makes me even more skeptical.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Passenger rail capital costs in the U.S. are extraordinarily higher than in other countries (lots of folks have looked into this, but there's no one single explanation as to why). And HSR capital costs are even higher than regular rail.

I don't question the demand side of their model, so long as their fares are competitive with economy air fares. But I am really skeptical that it will be enough to balance the capital cost side for a sufficient return.

Why wouldn't HSR have offered some sort a large funding round to date, even if it was contingent upon full legal approvals? It would definitely be in their political interest to publicize large capital commitments. The fact that there's been nothing on this level publicized by TCR over the number of years this project has been in process makes me even more skeptical.

There's no way to gather much funding money in advance of need and high confidence legal resolution to proceed among projects like this......IIRC CRS did raise $75 or $100 million a while back but that's pre-operational money only. Clear all that and there will be sovereign and pension funds, maybe-PE, and institutional investor monies interested......The Texas Permanent School Fund might be interested. Worldwide there is a cash glut and some of that cash is controlled by people looking for risk investment.



As an aside I'm not sure why green-types are not all over this as a means to decrease auto traffic on 45, 35 etc.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

I have a theory that the reason there's been slow comings of bullet trains and general transit is because new transportation technologies are rolling out. Not exactly what OP is mentioning, but the rise of BRT for example has a cheaper building cost with a self driving future to be able to operate at very high self driving capacities.

[Dopo]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Passenger rail capital costs in the U.S. are extraordinarily higher than in other countries (lots of folks have looked into this, but there's no one single explanation as to why). And HSR capital costs are even higher than regular rail.

Simple,
it's not subsidized

But it's ok to spend 10 times more adding 2-4 lanes to highways.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by Dopo

Simple,
it's not subsidized

But it's ok to spend 10 times more adding 2-4 lanes to highways.

Well, there's still folks pushing for the publicly subsidized version in the I-35 corridor. Not saying that's a good idea.

And Texas did do highway expansions, yes, but also moved away from that substantially by going the toll route (see what I did there?) until political opposition built up too much from dunderheads who think there's endless dedicated gas tax revenue. That's a whole 'nother discussion...

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by EDS_

There's no way to gather much funding money in advance of need and high confidence legal resolution to proceed among projects like this......IIRC CRS did raise $75 or $100 million a while back but that's pre-operational money only. Clear all that and there will be sovereign and pension funds, maybe-PE, and institutional investor monies interested......The Texas Permanent School Fund might be interested. Worldwide there is a cash glut and some of that cash is controlled by people looking for risk investment.



As an aside I'm not sure why green-types are not all over this as a means to decrease auto traffic on 45, 35 etc.

The competition would be more with flying, in reality, though TCR publicizes itself as an option to driving. Of course, reducing flying still has significant emissions benefits. Remember, you're not supposed to take that European vacation anymore unless you're sailing over there (and I mean on a sailboat).