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I wish no harm or ill will - you FALSLY claim that continuously after being corrected, I imagine being told the answer is a difficult concept. And once again MD you continually miss and never address any points as they relate in context. And why is it that real perspective and questionng of a continued growth rate of the DC economy is so suspect from you; do you really believe DC has some magic potion to remove real world market factors forever? This again is a question i have asked for months in various and you have yet to even remotely address but you sure do have many fancy press releases, plans, and visions to post
Good day and is as futile as ever with you, pontificate on
You might want to go read the question to this thread. It has nothing to do with DC or Philly or the recession. I know government spending keeps you up at night. In fact, I think everyone on city-data knows that government spending keeps you up at night, but we aren't talking about that in this thread. Even though you found a way to bring up government spending in a new urbanism development thread. Try to find your way back on topic. It's obvious you couldn't resist though. You are so predictable.
You might want to go read the question to this thread. It has nothing to do with DC or Philly or the recession. I know government spending keeps you up at night. In fact, I think everyone on city-data knows that government spending keeps you up at night, but we aren't talking about that in this thread. Even though you found a way to bring up government spending in a new urbanism development thread. Try to find your way back on topic. It's obvious you couldn't resist though. You are so predictable.
Predicatbly repond to your predicatability
and my point was on the growth estimates - today they are just estimates you posted and we will see if all come to fuition - go back and read - I responded to your specific DMV example
and my point was on the growth estimates - today they are just estimates you posted and we will see if all come to fuition - go back and read - I responded to your specific DMV example
No, you should go back and read who I was responding to. Someone asked about estimated jobs and population for the area to see if most people would have to commute in or if they could live in the city of Gaithersburg. What does that have to do with you posting about government spending? Better yet, why does it have to be personal with you? If Science city doesn't happen, then the estimates don't need to be as high so what is the point of even bringing up government spending? The guys question about jobs compared to population would match whether it was small or large. Stay on topic. That's what happens when you highjack threads with cloudy red envious eyes because you see something about the DC area in a post. Maybe you should read first before you go off the deep end.
No, you should go back and read who I was responding to. Someone asked about estimated jobs and population for the area to see if most people would have to commute in or if they could live in the city of Gaithersburg. What does that have to do with you posting about government spending? Better yet, why does it have to be personal with you? That's what happens when you highjack threads with cloudy red envious eyes because you see something about the DC area in a post. Maybe you should read first before you go off the deep end.
Yes and my point was will the estimates bear out; they are estimates correct?
Yes and my point was will the estimates bear out; they are estimates correct?
Estimate- form an approximate judgment or opinion regarding the worth, amount, size, weight, etc., of; calculate approximately: to estimate the cost of a college education.
Certain- free from doubt or reservation; confident; sure: I am certain he will come.
Now which word did you see? If your answer is estimate, why would you feel the need to bring up what could happen to effect an estimate when anything can effect an estimate. It wouldn't be an estimate otherwise. O..I know...kidphilly's obsession with government spending. And here I am yet again discussing this with kidphilly when that wasn't even what this thread was about. Find a hobby! Do you see anybody else discussing government spending? Do you even know what the question was?
Estimate- form an approximate judgment or opinion regarding the worth, amount, size, weight, etc., of; calculate approximately: to estimate the cost of a college education.
Certain- free from doubt or reservation; confident; sure: I am certain he will come.
Now which word did you see? If your answer is estimate, why would you feel the need to bring up what could happen to effect an estimate when anything can effect an estimate. It wouldn't be an estimate otherwise. O..I know...kidphilly's obsession with government spending. And here I am yet again discussing this with kidphilly when that wasn't even what this thread was about. Find a hobby! Do you see anybody else discussing government spending? Do you even know what the question was?
MD again please read back - on the development of this area i asked if this is realistic and issues that could reduce the actual increases and total development etc. One of which was related to Gov't spend which I also said "Que Allstar", now that was "Certain" - I will place the quote again for you for the definition
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar
Certain- free from doubt or reservation; confident; sure: I am certain he will come.
Am done on this if as usual you feel the need for the last word have at it
MD again please read back - on the development of this area i asked if this is realistic and issues that could reduce the actual increases and total development etc. One of which was related to Gov't spend which I also said "Que Allstar", now that was "Certain" - I will place the quote again for you for the definition
Am done on this if as usual you feel the need for the last word have at it
The next question I'm about to ask you should really give you pause. Really sit back and try to do some soul searching to find out what is really going on deep down.
Why did you feel the need to "ask if this is realistic and issues that could reduce the actual increases and total development etc. One of which was related to Gov't spend"?
What did that have to do with whether suburbs should be allowed to grow free from the principal city? The other gentlemen and myself were discussing that. Now, what were you discussing? We have all been giving examples of smart growth. What did your comment have to do with smart growth and new urbanism versus principal city growth? THAT IS WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT! This is not about DC or Gaithersburg!
reading the first GGW (Alpert) post he is NOT saying everything needs to be built in the urban core (DC, or DC/Arlington/Alex) He is saying 1. It would be better to build IN MoCo, but closer in - like Twinbrook. 2. If there is going to be a big build in Gaithersburg, hed like it arranged somewhat differently.
Now he may be unrealistic given the actual preferences and choices of the likely anchors. But I dont think hes saying that all growth outside the core is necessarily not smart growth.
. Who knows the answer but market factors could send places out of the area expected to locate there in the first place. No one knows the answers but will be interesting to see how this and many other DMV area developments continue. DC (DMV) is the only high rent, high homecost, high COL area that has expanded at such a high rate in the country and honestly with cutback in Govt spends is this growth rate sustainable, i say no (but MD will call me a hater). To me this is the wildcard in all these plans currently.
on the one hand, if govt employment keeps this the strongest metro in the country, that adds pressure for firms that can leave to leave. OTOH the tenants here seem interested anyway A. the bio corridor in MoCo has a lot of momentum, NIH etc arent going away (and not likely to be cut back) and the housing out there isnt that bad (folks can commute from Frederick MD, from West Va, even from PA I guess)
On the other hand, if govt cuts back in ways that significantly reduce employment, that probably makes space closer in affordable (though it also reequilibrates as it makes less govt tied firms more likely to stay/grow in the area) OTOH MDallstar seems certain that these particular firms have zero interest in a closer in location, and I suspect hes right. I also doubt they want older space.
So I dont think this is as big a threat to science city as it is to core commercial projects, or to the overall residential market.
As for that, while there are likely to be cutbacks to federal discretionary spending over the years, the wiser heads want to back load those so they dont hit till the economy is stronger. At which point markets around the country should be picking up.
It should also be noted that there are other equilibrating forces at work. Aside from the non federally oriented, or less federally oriented private sector employment in the region, its also the case that not all federal employment is in greater DC by any means. Activities (and more rarely whole agencies) move back and forth between greater DC and restofUSA fairly often. Now unfortunately (from the RE equilibrium POV) most of that is due to poltical pressures or bureaucratic needs, rather than responses to RE price signals, but the RE market long term does impact those choices. A more rapid form of equilibration is residential - folks here can shorten or lengthen their commutes, they can telework, they can do lots of things that allow them to modify their location decisions in response to price signals - if not DC vs Detroit differentials, at least DC vs Baltimore, DC vs West Virginia, etc. It can even impact how fast retirees depart the area.
Unfortunately the continued underwater house overhang tends to delay such moves, and causes equilibration to occur more slowly - thats still a factor here, if not so much as in RestofUSA
on the one hand, if govt employment keeps this the strongest metro in the country, that adds pressure for firms that can leave to leave. OTOH the tenants here seem interested anyway A. the bio corridor in MoCo has a lot of momentum, NIH etc arent going away (and not likely to be cut back) and the housing out there isnt that bad (folks can commute from Frederick MD, from West Va, even from PA I guess)
On the other hand, if govt cuts back in ways that significantly reduce employment, that probably makes space closer in affordable (though it also reequilibrates as it makes less govt tied firms more likely to stay/grow in the area) OTOH MDallstar seems certain that these particular firms have zero interest in a closer in location, and I suspect hes right. I also doubt they want older space.
So I dont think this is as big a threat to science city as it is to core commercial projects, or to the overall residential market.
As for that, while there are likely to be cutbacks to federal discretionary spending over the years, the wiser heads want to back load those so they dont hit till the economy is stronger. At which point markets around the country should be picking up.
It should also be noted that there are other equilibrating forces at work. Aside from the non federally oriented, or less federally oriented private sector employment in the region, its also the case that not all federal employment is in greater DC by any means. Activities (and more rarely whole agencies) move back and forth between greater DC and restofUSA fairly often. Now unfortunately (from the RE equilibrium POV) most of that is due to poltical pressures or bureaucratic needs, rather than responses to RE price signals, but the RE market long term does impact those choices. A more rapid form of equilibration is residential - folks here can shorten or lengthen their commutes, they can telework, they can do lots of things that allow them to modify their location decisions in response to price signals - if not DC vs Detroit differentials, at least DC vs Baltimore, DC vs West Virginia, etc. It can even impact how fast retirees depart the area.
Unfortunately the continued underwater house overhang tends to delay such moves, and causes equilibration to occur more slowly - thats still a factor here, if not so much as in RestofUSA
Well said...it's clear you know what your talking about.
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