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Worth a read of the whole article on the flight from cities and even the mega metropolitan areas.
"...In reality, the validity of the “back to the city” meme was never as pronounced as its boosters believed. And now it seems, if anything, to be reversing—first demographically, then economically—as workers and key industries seek more affordable and congenial environments. Furthermore, many elite urban centers are diverging, sometimes radically, from national norms which produces a political conundrum. As big city politics shift ever further to the left, particularly on climate and “social justice” issues, not only are they becoming toxic to the middle class, they are becoming places many avoid rather than models that invite imitation....
These elite cities, of course, still attract young people straight from college, but many don’t stay long. A new Brookings study shows that New York now suffers the largest net annual outmigration of post-college millennials (aged 25–34) of any metropolitan area—followed by Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Diego. Nearly half of all millennials in San Francisco described themselves as “likely” to leave the city by the Bay, a dramatic shift from a decade earlier.
Demographer Wendell Cox has noted that similar dispersive patterns can also be found in Europe. Since the 1970s, Europe’s suburbs have accounted for virtually all the growth in virtually every urban area, including Paris, Barcelona, Copenhagen, and Dublin. Zurich, a paragon of efficiency, has gone from 87 percent inner city to 68 percent suburban since 1950. Over the past three decades, across the continent’s largest 16 metropolitan areas, the suburbs and exurbs gained 8.2 million while the population overall declined in the cores....
Much the same pattern, with widening gaps between the top and the bottom of the social hierarchy, can be seen in Europe’s other leading cities, including Oslo, Amsterdam, Athens, Madrid, Oslo, Stockholm, and Vienna.
The emerging configuration of the new urban politics threatens many of the gains made over the past two decades. New York’s Mayor Bill de Blasio and increasingly militant anti-police protesters are actively unraveling the tough, but effective policing policies that worked under both Rudy Giuliani and his successor, Michael Bloomberg. The erosion of civil society, along with the introduction of high taxes and regulation are, according to a Bloomberg News report, leading to the flight of billions in capital from the city to states such as Florida...."
In truth, the secondary and tertiary cities have become much more attractive places to live in terms of the sheer logistics of getting around and the cost of living. Also, over the past twenty years, local amenities catching up.
No, the cultural life of a mid-sized city will not match the sheer number of attractions one can find in a place such as New York or San Francisco. It would be ridiculous to make that assertion. But as someone who travels a lot on business, I can find great restaurants and plenty to do in most mid-sized cities. So if you can most of the allure of a big city without having pay for it or kill yourself to make a daily commute, then why would you do it?
Why live in a mega-city when you can live in a smaller city with a much better quality of life for a lower COL?
Mega cities are a nightmare to navigate on a daily basis and generally suck if you like to own/drive a car. Rents are generally very high for what you get in terms of space and amenities. I was offered a job in a mega city with a corresponding pay increase but it would still end up eating almost 25 % of my pay in rent. No thank you.
I enjoy living here where I have space, rents that are well under 1/3 of my monthly salary and having roads/traffic that is easy to navigate. I am not far away from larger cities and it's a weekend trip if I find myself craving mega-cities.
Once people decide to pair up and have kids, space/affordable RE and schools weigh heavily in the decision to leave a big city. Certainly there are plenty of families and children living in big cities, but the schools can be a real crap shoot and buying RE is just not financially possible for many people.
I have lived in the NYC metro area most of my life and have witnessed this pattern over and over. We lived in Manhattan until our oldest finished 5th grade and then moved out to the suburbs - for better schools and an affordable home.
Once people decide to pair up and have kids, space/affordable RE and schools weigh heavily in the decision to leave a big city. Certainly there are plenty of families and children living in big cities, but the schools can be a real crap shoot and buying RE is just not financially possible for many people.
I have lived in the NYC metro area most of my life and have witnessed this pattern over and over. We lived in Manhattan until our oldest finished 5th grade and then moved out to the suburbs - for better schools and an affordable home.
It’s only new in the sense that we’ve listen to the cult of “Urban Renewal” for the past 12 years and it turns out not to be entirely accurate.
This is not just about affordability, people want more space than urban living can provide.
The emerging configuration of the new urban politics threatens many of the gains made over the past two decades. New York’s Mayor Bill de Blasio and increasingly militant anti-police protesters are actively unraveling the tough, but effective policing policies that worked under both Rudy Giuliani and his successor, Michael Bloomberg. The erosion of civil society, along with the introduction of high taxes and regulation are, according to a Bloomberg News report, leading to the flight of billions in capital from the city to states such as Florida...."
This may be specific to New York, but I do think that if this comes to pass, it will be a real eye-opener to the Millennials who never knew the dirty, run-down, dangerous, "Death Wish" New York of the 1960s and 70s. They've only known New York as a vibrant, exciting major city that is remarkably safe for its size. But if de Blasio and BLM and their ilk succeed in neutering the NYPD, I think that the Millennials who flocked to New York in the 2000s will be shocked at how far things can sink. And I think we would see another population decline set in, and perpetuate the city's woes.
Worth a read of the whole article on the flight from cities and even the mega metropolitan areas.
"...In reality, the validity of the “back to the city” meme was never as pronounced as its boosters believed. And now it seems, if anything, to be reversing—first demographically, then economically—as workers and key industries seek more affordable and congenial environments. Furthermore, many elite urban centers are diverging, sometimes radically, from national norms which produces a political conundrum. As big city politics shift ever further to the left, particularly on climate and “social justice” issues, not only are they becoming toxic to the middle class, they are becoming places many avoid rather than models that invite imitation....
These elite cities, of course, still attract young people straight from college, but many don’t stay long. A new Brookings study shows that New York now suffers the largest net annual outmigration of post-college millennials (aged 25–34) of any metropolitan area—followed by Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Diego. Nearly half of all millennials in San Francisco described themselves as “likely” to leave the city by the Bay, a dramatic shift from a decade earlier.
Demographer Wendell Cox has noted that similar dispersive patterns can also be found in Europe. Since the 1970s, Europe’s suburbs have accounted for virtually all the growth in virtually every urban area, including Paris, Barcelona, Copenhagen, and Dublin. Zurich, a paragon of efficiency, has gone from 87 percent inner city to 68 percent suburban since 1950. Over the past three decades, across the continent’s largest 16 metropolitan areas, the suburbs and exurbs gained 8.2 million while the population overall declined in the cores....
Much the same pattern, with widening gaps between the top and the bottom of the social hierarchy, can be seen in Europe’s other leading cities, including Oslo, Amsterdam, Athens, Madrid, Oslo, Stockholm, and Vienna.
The emerging configuration of the new urban politics threatens many of the gains made over the past two decades. New York’s Mayor Bill de Blasio and increasingly militant anti-police protesters are actively unraveling the tough, but effective policing policies that worked under both Rudy Giuliani and his successor, Michael Bloomberg. The erosion of civil society, along with the introduction of high taxes and regulation are, according to a Bloomberg News report, leading to the flight of billions in capital from the city to states such as Florida...."
People seem to forget that NYC's crime decline started under David Dinkins...
As for this article, I really think what is happening is what Minivan Driver and Marie Joseph have stated, many people in this age range realize that you don't necessarily have to live in the mega cities to get urban amenities and you can do so at a lower cost. This isn't even getting into the moving to the suburbs dynamic in terms of these mega city areas.
this is why when you view some where are millennials moving to lists, they will have cities in say the Inland Northeast, the Midwest and South, because that is where you can still find places with urban amenities that you can access quickly, affordable suburbs with good schools and enough to do.
Cities exist for a reason. That reason is efficiency. The ability to work, shop, patronize entertainment establishments, opportunities for social interactions with a large number of people in a concentrated area. All throughout history people migrated to cities for these reasons. Cities were dense in built form before the advent of the rail due to the premium real estate value in cities. With rail and later the automobile cities were able to expand horizontally with a less dense built form and still retain its efficiency.
The problem is over time is that as a city grows, unless it is committed to building efficient transportation networks there is a certain limit to where a city or metro can expand horizontally in geography before it starts to lose its efficiency (the very reason for its existence). This becomes acute especially if expansion was poorly planned with no thought for the future as if its population was never going to increase.
The demand for housing in the urban core in cities such a NYC and San Francisco is due to the fact of its efficiency. Everything you could want is in a small concentrated geographical area. The problem is demand for housing exceeded supply in these mega cities driving up housing prices while simultaneously straining transit infrastructure therefore decreasing quality of life for residents of these cities. In a capitalist society the rich has always been able to displace the poor once a place becomes desirable. Any city that becomes desirable among the masses will experience this.
The article by Joel Kotkin gets it wrong in stating that the "New Urban Politics" is the biggest challenge facing elite cities. He blames left wing politics for homelessness and disorder when in fact the rise of right wing pro business anti labor capitalism impoverished the working class by letting Corporate Wall Street interests gut American manufacturing to the point that most of what we buy in Walmart is made in overseas sweatshops. He unknowingly or intentionally obscures the true economic, political, and class structure of society and how that determines the quality of life for city residents.
The economic structure of a capitalist society is built upon the profit motive. Deindustrialization happened because the business and investment class saw they could greatly increase profits by shipping labor overseas to low wage labor markets. When the working class becomes impoverished you can count on the disintegration of society and the problems that come along with it. In order for the Business and Financial class to protect its interests and profits it needs to sow division upon the labor class along national, ethic and racial lines in order to deflect and obscure the true cause of labor's impoverishment. Blaming working class impoverishment along these lines is how a Donald Trump came to power.
The article by Joel Kotkin gets it wrong in stating that the "New Urban Politics" is the biggest challenge facing elite cities. He blames left wing politics for homelessness and disorder when in fact the rise of right wing pro business anti labor capitalism impoverished the working class by letting Corporate Wall Street interests gut American manufacturing to the point that most of what we buy in Walmart is made in overseas sweatshops. He unknowingly or intentionally obscures the true economic, political, and class structure of society and how that determines the quality of life for city residents.
The economic structure of a capitalist society is built upon the profit motive. Deindustrialization happened because the business and investment class saw they could greatly increase profits by shipping labor overseas to low wage labor markets. When the working class becomes impoverished you can count on the disintegration of society and the problems that come along with it. In order for the Business and Financial class to protect its interests and profits it needs to sow division upon the labor class along national, ethic and racial lines in order to deflect and obscure the true cause of labor's impoverishment. Blaming working class impoverishment along these lines is how a Donald Trump came to power.
Thank you for this. Very well put!
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